Author | Lightnews

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 2m

And even more important, underestimating the chance that next November, it’s Platner vs Collins and we all need to get behind Platner to help wrest the senate away from Trump.

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 3m

I think this website is underestimating the probability that next spring, it’s Platner vs Mills and Israel-Palestine is a salient issue (as it is likely to be in every Democratic primary until the gap between Dem voters & Dem electeds closes).

I see people saying things that are hard to take back.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

Nice, yes, that’s a really good way to think about it. Giving vs taking. If all you’re doing is voting for the person media narratives are telling you other people will like, you’re just taking. Give back, participate, tell the party what YOU like, not just what you think others will like.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

It’s an extremely common attitude, aggressively pushed by almost all political media. Media figures see that prediction game as their job, so viewers/readers/listeners/voters intuit it must be theirs too.

But if we’re all just trying to predict what other people will like, the signal gets lost.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

3 problems if we nominate someone we don’t really believe in, hoping they’ll be palatable to the general electorate:

1. We’ll have nominated someone we don’t believe in.
2. The general electorate will notice that.
3. Our ideas about what will appeal to to the general electorate can easily be wrong.

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

Pundits love to give strategic advice about who parties should nominate to win the general. That’s fine, pundits can say whatever they want.

Your job as a primary voter is not to be a pundit predicting who you think can win the general. In a primary, you must vote *your* values and *your* judgment.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

Generally about primaries:

1. Your job as a primary voter is to pick the candidate you sincerely think would do the best job

2. The strongest candidate for the general election is the one who proves they can win hearts & minds by winning a primary

3. The more we adhere to #1, the more true #2 is

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 5h

Yeah, all of that matters, but even if he loses some elite support over this, I can see him staying in and embracing an “outsider” identity, as long as he retains some support among voters in polls. We’ll see, I guess.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

Yeah, good points. But also, any Maine voters who haven’t heard about the tattoo yet will now only hear about it after he has already covered it up. I think that makes it land softer.

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

But still, at least part of it was fully pre-tattoo story (but not pre-Reddit stories).

Even so, even if he takes a hit from this (he surely will), I don’t think it will erase a 34-point lead. And I don’t think he’ll drop out while he’s still ahead in the polls.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

I mean, put differently, the tattoo story was THE main topic of conversation in lefty politics circles for the 2 final days of this poll (20th & 21st). Platner tattoo was the only thing anyone could talk about on bluesky already on the *20th*, after that interview came out in the morning.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

Beyond a shadow of a doubt, either Platner or Mills would be infinitely preferable to Susan Collins.

We should be prepared to enthusiastically support Platner, Mills, or anyone else ME Dem primary voters might choose, when it comes to beating Susan Collins.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

I still think it’s true that a new pro-Palestine candidate with none of Platner’s baggage would be preferable. But I don’t think it’s likely that such a candidate will emerge. And also… everyone has baggage. Any hypothetical replacement candidate would have their own issues.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

I think many of us on this website, me included, rushed to react to the tattoo thing and hardened our positions too quickly.

If it’s Platner or Mills, and if I take the time to think about that decision carefully… I actually think Platner would have my vote. Palestine matters more than this tattoo.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 6h

I don’t think he’s dropping out.

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 13h

MAINE Senate race, Democratic primary

UNH/Pine Tree State Poll

Graham Platner 58%
Janet Mills 24%

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

Okay, let’s say the 14A violation in 2024 is indeed equally as clear as a 22A violation in 2028.

In that case, just treat me as saying the 2nd of these 2 equal violations will be my breaking point. If you’re already past yours at 1, I guess I’ll be joining you in the trenches where you already are.

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

If you’re planning to keep participating in elections after the 22nd amendment is torched to put his name on the ballot, I strongly disagree with that plan, and will be trying to convince everyone not to do that if & when that happens.

Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

Yes, and yet we hate war enough that we agree to keep participating in politics despite this.

For me, that will no longer be true if and when his name appears on a 2028 ballot.

While I agree that his insurrection should rightly have disqualified him in 2024, it’s not as clear cut as a term limit.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

Which means it’s stupid to discuss *politics* as if Trump can be a part of it past 2029. Trump in power past 2029 is no longer politics. It’s war. A very different conversation. If you want to talk about *politics*, elections, campaigns, persuasion, voting — in *that* universe, he’s a lame duck.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

I’m not saying that won’t happen. I’m saying, the moment his name is on a 2028 ballot, politics is over and war has begun. any decent person should be fiercely hostile to the idea of participating in such a sham election.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 22h

This is the conversation the country just had via No Kings.

7 million of us said: “we reject tyranny, we insist on constitutional democracy.”

The response from the right was gaslighting: “nobody is a tyrant, nobody is trying to take your democracy away.”

Good. We 7 million say “or else.”

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 23h

Does that make sense? I’m not saying we’re gonna have an easy time getting him to leave. I’m saying no part of that can or should ever involve “voting against him” anymore.

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 23h

In which case and at which point, time to stop voting and start *****ing. (See rest of thread)

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 23h

I’m not saying it’s impossible his 6 mini-mes on the Supreme Court will simply light the constitution on fire and declare he can be on the ballot in 2028 because they said so.

I’m saying, if and when they do, I spit on anyone who thinks the right move is “sure, we’ll participate in that election!”

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Jackson 🏳️‍🌈 @nihilscio.bsky.social · 23h

I’m endlessly frustrated by arguments that seem to treat “contesting another election with Trump as our opponent” as a plausible future scenario.

The two possible scenarios are “contesting the next presidential election against someone other than Trump” and “civil war.” Keep that straight.

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