Jackson ๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ
banner
nihilscio.bsky.social
Jackson ๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ
@nihilscio.bsky.social
3.1K followers 1.6K following 8.9K posts
he/him ๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ nerd about ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ๐ŸŽถ lib/left/socdem. pro democracy. pro ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (MN->MI), speak fr๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท pt๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท es๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
And even more important, underestimating the chance that next November, itโ€™s Platner vs Collins and we all need to get behind Platner to help wrest the senate away from Trump.
I think this website is underestimating the probability that next spring, itโ€™s Platner vs Mills and Israel-Palestine is a salient issue (as it is likely to be in every Democratic primary until the gap between Dem voters & Dem electeds closes).

I see people saying things that are hard to take back.
Nice, yes, thatโ€™s a really good way to think about it. Giving vs taking. If all youโ€™re doing is voting for the person media narratives are telling you other people will like, youโ€™re just taking. Give back, participate, tell the party what YOU like, not just what you think others will like.
Itโ€™s an extremely common attitude, aggressively pushed by almost all political media. Media figures see that prediction game as their job, so viewers/readers/listeners/voters intuit it must be theirs too.

But if weโ€™re all just trying to predict what other people will like, the signal gets lost.
3 problems if we nominate someone we donโ€™t really believe in, hoping theyโ€™ll be palatable to the general electorate:

1. Weโ€™ll have nominated someone we donโ€™t believe in.
2. The general electorate will notice that.
3. Our ideas about what will appeal to to the general electorate can easily be wrong.
Pundits love to give strategic advice about who parties should nominate to win the general. Thatโ€™s fine, pundits can say whatever they want.

Your job as a primary voter is not to be a pundit predicting who you think can win the general. In a primary, you must vote *your* values and *your* judgment.
Generally about primaries:

1. Your job as a primary voter is to pick the candidate you sincerely think would do the best job

2. The strongest candidate for the general election is the one who proves they can win hearts & minds by winning a primary

3. The more we adhere to #1, the more true #2 is
Yeah, all of that matters, but even if he loses some elite support over this, I can see him staying in and embracing an โ€œoutsiderโ€ identity, as long as he retains some support among voters in polls. Weโ€™ll see, I guess.
Yeah, good points. But also, any Maine voters who havenโ€™t heard about the tattoo yet will now only hear about it after he has already covered it up. I think that makes it land softer.
But still, at least part of it was fully pre-tattoo story (but not pre-Reddit stories).

Even so, even if he takes a hit from this (he surely will), I donโ€™t think it will erase a 34-point lead. And I donโ€™t think heโ€™ll drop out while heโ€™s still ahead in the polls.
I mean, put differently, the tattoo story was THE main topic of conversation in lefty politics circles for the 2 final days of this poll (20th & 21st). Platner tattoo was the only thing anyone could talk about on bluesky already on the *20th*, after that interview came out in the morning.
Beyond a shadow of a doubt, either Platner or Mills would be infinitely preferable to Susan Collins.

We should be prepared to enthusiastically support Platner, Mills, or anyone else ME Dem primary voters might choose, when it comes to beating Susan Collins.
I still think itโ€™s true that a new pro-Palestine candidate with none of Platnerโ€™s baggage would be preferable. But I donโ€™t think itโ€™s likely that such a candidate will emerge. And alsoโ€ฆ everyone has baggage. Any hypothetical replacement candidate would have their own issues.
I think many of us on this website, me included, rushed to react to the tattoo thing and hardened our positions too quickly.

If itโ€™s Platner or Mills, and if I take the time to think about that decision carefullyโ€ฆ I actually think Platner would have my vote. Palestine matters more than this tattoo.
I donโ€™t think heโ€™s dropping out.
MAINE Senate race, Democratic primary

UNH/Pine Tree State Poll

Graham Platner 58%
Janet Mills 24%
Okay, letโ€™s say the 14A violation in 2024 is indeed equally as clear as a 22A violation in 2028.

In that case, just treat me as saying the 2nd of these 2 equal violations will be my breaking point. If youโ€™re already past yours at 1, I guess Iโ€™ll be joining you in the trenches where you already are.
If youโ€™re planning to keep participating in elections after the 22nd amendment is torched to put his name on the ballot, I strongly disagree with that plan, and will be trying to convince everyone not to do that if & when that happens.
Yes, and yet we hate war enough that we agree to keep participating in politics despite this.

For me, that will no longer be true if and when his name appears on a 2028 ballot.

While I agree that his insurrection should rightly have disqualified him in 2024, itโ€™s not as clear cut as a term limit.
Which means itโ€™s stupid to discuss *politics* as if Trump can be a part of it past 2029. Trump in power past 2029 is no longer politics. Itโ€™s war. A very different conversation. If you want to talk about *politics*, elections, campaigns, persuasion, voting โ€” in *that* universe, heโ€™s a lame duck.
Iโ€™m not saying that wonโ€™t happen. Iโ€™m saying, the moment his name is on a 2028 ballot, politics is over and war has begun. any decent person should be fiercely hostile to the idea of participating in such a sham election.
This is the conversation the country just had via No Kings.

7 million of us said: โ€œwe reject tyranny, we insist on constitutional democracy.โ€

The response from the right was gaslighting: โ€œnobody is a tyrant, nobody is trying to take your democracy away.โ€

Good. We 7 million say โ€œor else.โ€
Does that make sense? Iโ€™m not saying weโ€™re gonna have an easy time getting him to leave. Iโ€™m saying no part of that can or should ever involve โ€œvoting against himโ€ anymore.
In which case and at which point, time to stop voting and start *****ing. (See rest of thread)
Iโ€™m not saying itโ€™s impossible his 6 mini-mes on the Supreme Court will simply light the constitution on fire and declare he can be on the ballot in 2028 because they said so.

Iโ€™m saying, if and when they do, I spit on anyone who thinks the right move is โ€œsure, weโ€™ll participate in that election!โ€
Iโ€™m endlessly frustrated by arguments that seem to treat โ€œcontesting another election with Trump as our opponentโ€ as a plausible future scenario.

The two possible scenarios are โ€œcontesting the next presidential election against someone other than Trumpโ€ and โ€œcivil war.โ€ Keep that straight.