NOLA Analytics
@nolaanalytics.bsky.social
Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background
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NOLA Analytics
@nolaanalytics.bsky.social
· Feb 10
Sum of all Saints draft pick for draft pick trades since Drew Brees retired according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart.
Over the last 4 drafts, the Saints are averaging punting away the #32 pick per draft in -EV trades.
Over the last 4 drafts, the Saints are averaging punting away the #32 pick per draft in -EV trades.
Initial take: Fears has the juice. Queen looks pretty good, but this team's future would look so much cleaner and better if the Pelicans just did the simple thing and took Fears at 7 and held onto that 1st for next. Oh well, fun game watching the rooks.
I haven’t watched any Pelicans this year in regular season, preseason, or summer league, but I got invited to the game tonight so I’m excited to see Fears and Queen for the first time after reading some good things about them!
November 15, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Initial take: Fears has the juice. Queen looks pretty good, but this team's future would look so much cleaner and better if the Pelicans just did the simple thing and took Fears at 7 and held onto that 1st for next. Oh well, fun game watching the rooks.
I haven’t watched any Pelicans this year in regular season, preseason, or summer league, but I got invited to the game tonight so I’m excited to see Fears and Queen for the first time after reading some good things about them!
November 14, 2025 at 3:15 PM
I haven’t watched any Pelicans this year in regular season, preseason, or summer league, but I got invited to the game tonight so I’m excited to see Fears and Queen for the first time after reading some good things about them!
Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:
November 11, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:
Two of the more underrated pieces of every rebuild are the bad coach and bad QB who get you the opportunity to draft a franchise QB and hire a good coach to go along with him.
Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.
Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.
The Saints under Kellen Moore have now had 14 plays where going for it would boost their win probability by more than 0.5%. They've gone for it just 4 times.
Not encouraging!
Not encouraging!
---> NO (0) @ CAR (7) <---
NO has 4th & 2 at the CAR 2, Q1 02:52
Recommendation (MEDIUM): 👉 Go for it (+1.1 WP)
Actual play: 👟🏈 B.Grupe 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-K.Kroeger.
NO has 4th & 2 at the CAR 2, Q1 02:52
Recommendation (MEDIUM): 👉 Go for it (+1.1 WP)
Actual play: 👟🏈 B.Grupe 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-K.Kroeger.
November 9, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Two of the more underrated pieces of every rebuild are the bad coach and bad QB who get you the opportunity to draft a franchise QB and hire a good coach to go along with him.
Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.
Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.
My fears from the last couple years that have been confirmed now were that the things separating the Saints from the Jets and the Pelicans from the Kings were not overall organizational stability, but three Hall of Famers (Payton, Brees, Anthony Davis) dragging poor organizations to relevance.
And the saddest part is that there's no sign this'll improve. A Benson team has never planned for the future over the present since they bought the Pels (until the Derek Carr retirement forced their hand this year). We're barreling towards basketball in New Orleans ending with a whimper.
November 3, 2025 at 8:42 PM
My fears from the last couple years that have been confirmed now were that the things separating the Saints from the Jets and the Pelicans from the Kings were not overall organizational stability, but three Hall of Famers (Payton, Brees, Anthony Davis) dragging poor organizations to relevance.
This hits on the same problem the Benson's other team is running into now. The time to rebuild was late 2024. The Pelicans have wasted everyone's time since then, have driven fan support into the ground, and have burnt all goodwill. And then they have to *start* a rebuild.
You can't put spilled milk back in the bottle. Replacing it with orange juice in your cereal makes everything worse.
For @spotrac.com, I wrote about the New Orleans Pelicans, how things went this wrong and how they need to start over to survive.
Read more:
www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/30...
For @spotrac.com, I wrote about the New Orleans Pelicans, how things went this wrong and how they need to start over to survive.
Read more:
www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/30...
Picking Up the Pieces of the Pelicans | Spotrac News
The Pelicans replaced a generational talent with another generational talent and got it all wrong. Where do they go from here?
www.spotrac.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:38 PM
This hits on the same problem the Benson's other team is running into now. The time to rebuild was late 2024. The Pelicans have wasted everyone's time since then, have driven fan support into the ground, and have burnt all goodwill. And then they have to *start* a rebuild.
After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!
November 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!
This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)
October 27, 2025 at 5:00 PM
This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)
One thing I've continually found in rebuilding teams is that fans tend to have a fantasy that a team can lose enough games to secure a top pick but also do so while being fun and never being blown out. You don't go 4-13 by losing 13 single digit games. You lose 13 games by getting blown out a lot.
September 22, 2025 at 1:18 PM
One thing I've continually found in rebuilding teams is that fans tend to have a fantasy that a team can lose enough games to secure a top pick but also do so while being fun and never being blown out. You don't go 4-13 by losing 13 single digit games. You lose 13 games by getting blown out a lot.
It’s once again pretty clear why Kellen Moore was available for the saints to hire and why he was willing to take the worst job in the NFL.
It'd be somewhere around "fine" with some upside. He's young and is an offensive guy with a QB focus which is good, but he's probably only the 5th or so best offensive HC option on the market this year which is unfortunately what you get when you're in the Saints situation right now.
September 21, 2025 at 9:29 PM
It’s once again pretty clear why Kellen Moore was available for the saints to hire and why he was willing to take the worst job in the NFL.
My take on the Clippers-Kawhi situation is that I don't think "beyond a reasonable doubt" should be the standard here. If you're a professional sports league, avoiding the mere *appearance* of cheating should be paramount, and the onus should turn to LAC to prove it was not nefarious.
September 19, 2025 at 2:46 PM
My take on the Clippers-Kawhi situation is that I don't think "beyond a reasonable doubt" should be the standard here. If you're a professional sports league, avoiding the mere *appearance* of cheating should be paramount, and the onus should turn to LAC to prove it was not nefarious.
I’m very satisfied with the loss there, but on the Kellen Moore end, he had really rough moments at the end of both halves: giving up a free drive at the end of the 1st and kicking down 10 from the 5 yard line which forced them into needing a TD from the 18 instead.
September 7, 2025 at 8:44 PM
I’m very satisfied with the loss there, but on the Kellen Moore end, he had really rough moments at the end of both halves: giving up a free drive at the end of the 1st and kicking down 10 from the 5 yard line which forced them into needing a TD from the 18 instead.
There will be people who, reasonably, try to find joy in this Saints season in other ways, but far and away the most important thing that will come from this Saints season is whether or not they get in position to draft a QB with the potential to be a top 5-8 guy. Everything else is small potatoes.
September 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
There will be people who, reasonably, try to find joy in this Saints season in other ways, but far and away the most important thing that will come from this Saints season is whether or not they get in position to draft a QB with the potential to be a top 5-8 guy. Everything else is small potatoes.
The SEC is very good at football.
September 7, 2025 at 3:04 AM
The SEC is very good at football.
Not being able to beat out Rattler probably all but calls it for the slim chance Shough had at being a QB of the caliber that the Saints could actually win something meaningful with him down the line, but as long as they get a top pick next year, it doesn't really matter.
August 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Not being able to beat out Rattler probably all but calls it for the slim chance Shough had at being a QB of the caliber that the Saints could actually win something meaningful with him down the line, but as long as they get a top pick next year, it doesn't really matter.
I am noticing that whichever Saints QB gets to play against backups each week tends to look better, and whichever Saints QB plays with Saints starters against starting defenses tends to look terrible which is probably a sign of things to come for the next 17 games.
August 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
I am noticing that whichever Saints QB gets to play against backups each week tends to look better, and whichever Saints QB plays with Saints starters against starting defenses tends to look terrible which is probably a sign of things to come for the next 17 games.
Both of Gayle Benson’s teams are so obviously the marks that the rest of the teams in their leagues target whenever they need to win a trade.
August 20, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Both of Gayle Benson’s teams are so obviously the marks that the rest of the teams in their leagues target whenever they need to win a trade.
The Pelicans have the hardest schedule in the NBA this season.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
August 14, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The Pelicans have the hardest schedule in the NBA this season.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Genuinely, the best spin is that the longer Queen takes to make his debut and the more excuses he has when he returns, the longer fans can argue that the Pelicans haven't lost the Hawks trade yet.
July 18, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Genuinely, the best spin is that the longer Queen takes to make his debut and the more excuses he has when he returns, the longer fans can argue that the Pelicans haven't lost the Hawks trade yet.
The NBA season starts in 13 weeks, but fortunately, Alabama basketball starts in 15 weeks.
July 18, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The NBA season starts in 13 weeks, but fortunately, Alabama basketball starts in 15 weeks.
Zach Lowe mentioned this point on his podcast yesterday. The median outcome is that the trade is fine or is a small enough loss that it’s not a franchise ruiner. And I’m sure people will rush to defend it if that happens. But the full scope and downside risk is such a massive loss regardless.
You can tell who understands probability by how they talk about this trade down the road. The median outcome is that the Pelicans don’t lose a ton of value here (or better). But the tail outcomes are completely stacked against the Pels and show an organization that doesn’t understand so.
~ How often does each team "easily win" trade (hard to argue other team came out better):
Pelicans: 13%
Hawks: 42%
~ How often does each team "clearly win" trade (impossible to argue anything but one team won):
Pelicans: 5%
Hawks: 25%
Pelicans: 13%
Hawks: 42%
~ How often does each team "clearly win" trade (impossible to argue anything but one team won):
Pelicans: 5%
Hawks: 25%
July 18, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Zach Lowe mentioned this point on his podcast yesterday. The median outcome is that the trade is fine or is a small enough loss that it’s not a franchise ruiner. And I’m sure people will rush to defend it if that happens. But the full scope and downside risk is such a massive loss regardless.
It's one of the reasons I personally disagree with people who want them to continue pouring assets into this team. I think of this as more of a "first step to getting out of a hole is to stop digging" than "since you're already down this path, you might as well go all the way."
Not that I’m surprised, but simply hitting 50 being below 2% is very depressing.
July 15, 2025 at 5:10 PM
It's one of the reasons I personally disagree with people who want them to continue pouring assets into this team. I think of this as more of a "first step to getting out of a hole is to stop digging" than "since you're already down this path, you might as well go all the way."
Using win totals and alternate win totals on DraftKings, here are the Pelicans projections for next season:
July 15, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Using win totals and alternate win totals on DraftKings, here are the Pelicans projections for next season:
I'm not watching and, good or bad, it's just Summer League, but I once again feel for Derik Queen because, based on where he was drafted, there's a > 50% chance he's not a playoff rotation level player, but he now has top 5 pick expectations because of an awful trade by the Pelicans.
July 10, 2025 at 8:55 PM
I'm not watching and, good or bad, it's just Summer League, but I once again feel for Derik Queen because, based on where he was drafted, there's a > 50% chance he's not a playoff rotation level player, but he now has top 5 pick expectations because of an awful trade by the Pelicans.
I won't be watching Summer League so there will be better people to go to for analysis, but I will issue my annual reminder that you should draw absolutely nothing away from 3P% and, to lesser extents, overall FG% and PPG from summer league. It's basically all going to be variance.
July 10, 2025 at 6:23 PM
I won't be watching Summer League so there will be better people to go to for analysis, but I will issue my annual reminder that you should draw absolutely nothing away from 3P% and, to lesser extents, overall FG% and PPG from summer league. It's basically all going to be variance.