Breathin' Orange Fire
@orangefire.bsky.social
Astros Fan. Analytics Guy.
Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com
"Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."
Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com
"Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."
Pinned
Orange Fire | Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL) | Substack
Analysis and opinion on the Houston Astros. Click to read Orange Fire, by Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL), a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
orangefire.substack.com
I write a Substack on the Astros that sketches out my thoughts and analysis in greater detail than social media allows.
I'd ask each of you to consider subscribing to the Substack--it is and always will be free.
orangefire.substack.com
I'd ask each of you to consider subscribing to the Substack--it is and always will be free.
orangefire.substack.com
I'm cementing my reputation as the internet biggest Jeff Calhoun fan.
Next steo: profit.
@fangraphs.com
Next steo: profit.
@fangraphs.com
December 5, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I'm cementing my reputation as the internet biggest Jeff Calhoun fan.
Next steo: profit.
@fangraphs.com
Next steo: profit.
@fangraphs.com
Good news: My listening age is younger than my actual act.
Bad news: But not by much.
#SpotifyWrapped.
www.spotify.com/wrapped-shar...
Bad news: But not by much.
#SpotifyWrapped.
www.spotify.com/wrapped-shar...
My Listening Age
Spotify
www.spotify.com
December 3, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Good news: My listening age is younger than my actual act.
Bad news: But not by much.
#SpotifyWrapped.
www.spotify.com/wrapped-shar...
Bad news: But not by much.
#SpotifyWrapped.
www.spotify.com/wrapped-shar...
I like the framing in this Nate Vohn article, who puts the GOP political decline this year in the 20 year trend of big snapbacks against the President's party.
#RecommendedReading
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
#RecommendedReading
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
The G.O.P. Continues to Slip
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:47 PM
I like the framing in this Nate Vohn article, who puts the GOP political decline this year in the 20 year trend of big snapbacks against the President's party.
#RecommendedReading
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
#RecommendedReading
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Aaron Weiss fits Houston thanks to a flat-VAA fastball, a tight gyro slider, and low release variance that create strong tunnels. The #Astros can likely add IVB, sharpen late slider break, and reshape his third pitch into a cutter for a more optimized profile.
December 3, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Aaron Weiss fits Houston thanks to a flat-VAA fastball, a tight gyro slider, and low release variance that create strong tunnels. The #Astros can likely add IVB, sharpen late slider break, and reshape his third pitch into a cutter for a more optimized profile.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Some punditry from me as part of my day job.
There was a lot of noise last week about Republicans retiring rather than running for re-election in 2026. But so far, that is not happening. There are almost no strategic retirements.
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
medium.com/3streams/rep...
There was a lot of noise last week about Republicans retiring rather than running for re-election in 2026. But so far, that is not happening. There are almost no strategic retirements.
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
medium.com/3streams/rep...
GOP Worries About House Retirements are Overblown. For Now.
Retirements from Politics Are Low and Favoring Republicans. That is a Positive Sign for Republicans if It Holds Up.
medium.com
December 2, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Some punditry from me as part of my day job.
There was a lot of noise last week about Republicans retiring rather than running for re-election in 2026. But so far, that is not happening. There are almost no strategic retirements.
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
medium.com/3streams/rep...
There was a lot of noise last week about Republicans retiring rather than running for re-election in 2026. But so far, that is not happening. There are almost no strategic retirements.
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
medium.com/3streams/rep...
Good contract for the Mets.
getting the actual best reliever on the market for 3 years with no opt outs and a very reasonable AAV because he had a weird ERA spike is a huge win no matter what else the Mets choose to do with their pen
December 2, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Good contract for the Mets.
Lane Kiffin on the tarmac in Baton Rouge. We'll see what the future has in store for that tarmac.
November 30, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Lane Kiffin on the tarmac in Baton Rouge. We'll see what the future has in store for that tarmac.
Welp. Messy personality combined with a good, but not great track record. And not the resume ofcoached who are succeeding in contemporay college football.
As a Tiger fan, I hope this works. But I'm really skeptical.
As a Tiger fan, I hope this works. But I'm really skeptical.
SOURCES: Lane Kiffin is expected to accept LSU's offer to become the Tigers next head coach. Kiffin is set to meet with his Ole Miss team this morning at 9 AM CT. As we reported yesterday morning, LSU has been very confident it was going to land Kiffin. www.nytimes.com/athletic/684...
Lane Kiffin expected to take LSU job as Ole Miss sets team meeting: Source
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Welp. Messy personality combined with a good, but not great track record. And not the resume ofcoached who are succeeding in contemporay college football.
As a Tiger fan, I hope this works. But I'm really skeptical.
As a Tiger fan, I hope this works. But I'm really skeptical.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
The value is in the data: a sweeper with ~15–17” of sweep, a sinker with ~14” arm-side run, and a changeup holding an 8–9 mph gap. They have a similar tracker with guys like Collin McHugh and tightening release
November 29, 2025 at 9:34 PM
The value is in the data: a sweeper with ~15–17” of sweep, a sinker with ~14” arm-side run, and a changeup holding an 8–9 mph gap. They have a similar tracker with guys like Collin McHugh and tightening release
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Michael King fits into Houston’s 2026 model: a fastball pair sitting 92–94, a sweeper with late horizontal break, and a changeup that tunnels well off his sinker. The #Astros’ system thrives on optimizing movement profiles
November 29, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Michael King fits into Houston’s 2026 model: a fastball pair sitting 92–94, a sweeper with late horizontal break, and a changeup that tunnels well off his sinker. The #Astros’ system thrives on optimizing movement profiles
My message to Jason Benetti.
That's right. You're not from Texas/Texas wants you anyway
That's right. You're not from Texas/Texas wants you anyway
November 29, 2025 at 8:47 PM
My message to Jason Benetti.
That's right. You're not from Texas/Texas wants you anyway
That's right. You're not from Texas/Texas wants you anyway
Off the board for the Astros. Would have covered 7 free agent years, and Jim Crane has never given that to any player.
BREAKING: The New York Post has learned Dylan Cease to Blue Jays. $210M, 7 years
November 26, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Off the board for the Astros. Would have covered 7 free agent years, and Jim Crane has never given that to any player.
Everyone knows the appropriate way to get someone to move from their state to yours is via a Lyle Lovett song.
November 26, 2025 at 1:22 AM
Everyone knows the appropriate way to get someone to move from their state to yours is via a Lyle Lovett song.
If the Richard Fitts, you must acquit.
@JeffPassan tweeted
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
Boston Red Sox receive: Sonny Gray and cash
St. Louis Cardinals receive: LHP Brandon Clarke and RHP Richard Fitts
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
Boston Red Sox receive: Sonny Gray and cash
St. Louis Cardinals receive: LHP Brandon Clarke and RHP Richard Fitts
November 25, 2025 at 5:06 PM
If the Richard Fitts, you must acquit.
A movie that takes place where you're from, but its actually a TV show whose opening credits included your sophomore year dorm.
November 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
A movie that takes place where you're from, but its actually a TV show whose opening credits included your sophomore year dorm.
More details in the trade. But both Semien and Nimmo are under water contracts.
Brandon Nimmo has been traded to the Texas Rangers, per source. A trade that will also send Marcus Semien to the New York Mets.
November 23, 2025 at 10:28 PM
More details in the trade. But both Semien and Nimmo are under water contracts.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
I am begging someone to re-share this or help. I don’t know how to say this any more, but I’m scared and I need to get through this weekend. That includes the tram trip. When I move on and when I get to work, I will make sure everyone sees every single good thing. I’m fighting for everyone here.
If you have $5 or $10 to spare, send it Jules’ way. She needs food and medication while she’s battling cancer and applying for jobs. AI has completely decimated the industry she’s worked in, and has made getting a job, and job in any industry, a nightmare in Australia.
PayPal link below ⬇️
PayPal link below ⬇️
Donate to Help me get through a rough patch, organized by J H
2024 broke me. 2025 hasn’t been much better.
I spent the year in medical hell, only to… J H needs your support for Help me get through a rough patch
www.gofundme.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:53 AM
I am begging someone to re-share this or help. I don’t know how to say this any more, but I’m scared and I need to get through this weekend. That includes the tram trip. When I move on and when I get to work, I will make sure everyone sees every single good thing. I’m fighting for everyone here.
The Astros tender, among others, Jesus Sanchez.
I had always thought the Astros would tender Sanchez, writing in my offseason preview "I expect Sanchez—despite his poor play with the Astros last season—to start in left field on Opening Day" in 2026.
I had always thought the Astros would tender Sanchez, writing in my offseason preview "I expect Sanchez—despite his poor play with the Astros last season—to start in left field on Opening Day" in 2026.
The Astros tendered contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. They also signed reliever Enyel De Los Santos to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration, and also signed Taylor Trammell to a split contract
November 21, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The Astros tender, among others, Jesus Sanchez.
I had always thought the Astros would tender Sanchez, writing in my offseason preview "I expect Sanchez—despite his poor play with the Astros last season—to start in left field on Opening Day" in 2026.
I had always thought the Astros would tender Sanchez, writing in my offseason preview "I expect Sanchez—despite his poor play with the Astros last season—to start in left field on Opening Day" in 2026.
MIssed this yesterday. Here's the Pitching Lab's newest project.
There's a lot of raw material here. Maldonado has struck out 32% of batters that's he's faced across 160 IPs in AAA. But a high walk rate and a poor track record in his cups of coffee in the majors.
There's a lot of raw material here. Maldonado has struck out 32% of batters that's he's faced across 160 IPs in AAA. But a high walk rate and a poor track record in his cups of coffee in the majors.
November 21, 2025 at 6:47 PM
MIssed this yesterday. Here's the Pitching Lab's newest project.
There's a lot of raw material here. Maldonado has struck out 32% of batters that's he's faced across 160 IPs in AAA. But a high walk rate and a poor track record in his cups of coffee in the majors.
There's a lot of raw material here. Maldonado has struck out 32% of batters that's he's faced across 160 IPs in AAA. But a high walk rate and a poor track record in his cups of coffee in the majors.
November 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Initial thoughts. Allen is a better fielder, but an even worse hitter than Dubon.
Atlanta acquires INF Mauricio Dubón from the Houston Astros in exchange for shortstop Nick Allen.
November 20, 2025 at 2:32 AM
Initial thoughts. Allen is a better fielder, but an even worse hitter than Dubon.