Breathin' Orange Fire
@orangefire.bsky.social
Astros Fan. Analytics Guy.
Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com
"Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."
Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com
"Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."
Pinned
Orange Fire | Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL) | Substack
Analysis and opinion on the Houston Astros. Click to read Orange Fire, by Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL), a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
orangefire.substack.com
I write a Substack on the Astros that sketches out my thoughts and analysis in greater detail than social media allows.
I'd ask each of you to consider subscribing to the Substack--it is and always will be free.
orangefire.substack.com
I'd ask each of you to consider subscribing to the Substack--it is and always will be free.
orangefire.substack.com
orangefire.substack.com/p/the-prospe...
The Astros were a player development juggernaut through 2022. A decline in the quality of young players has hurt this team. Did it turn around in 2025?
The Astros were a player development juggernaut through 2022. A decline in the quality of young players has hurt this team. Did it turn around in 2025?
The Prospect Pipeline Dried Up Over The Last 3 Seasons
The Astros were a player development juggernaut through 2022. A decline in the quality of young players has hurt this team. Did it turn around in 2025?
orangefire.substack.com
January 24, 2026 at 4:59 PM
orangefire.substack.com/p/the-prospe...
The Astros were a player development juggernaut through 2022. A decline in the quality of young players has hurt this team. Did it turn around in 2025?
The Astros were a player development juggernaut through 2022. A decline in the quality of young players has hurt this team. Did it turn around in 2025?
Astros 2023-2025
29 MLB Debuts
Combined bWAR: 5.2
For context
Ronel Blanco (22 Debut)
5.2 bWAR
29 MLB Debuts
Combined bWAR: 5.2
For context
Ronel Blanco (22 Debut)
5.2 bWAR
Astros officials insist their system has hidden talent — but outsiders see a depleted pipeline with little upside.
Should Astros fans be concerned by lack of top prospects in pipeline?
Astros officials insist their system has hidden talent — but outsiders see a depleted pipeline with little upside.
bit.ly
January 24, 2026 at 1:32 AM
Astros 2023-2025
29 MLB Debuts
Combined bWAR: 5.2
For context
Ronel Blanco (22 Debut)
5.2 bWAR
29 MLB Debuts
Combined bWAR: 5.2
For context
Ronel Blanco (22 Debut)
5.2 bWAR
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Here's a question I'm not certain I know the answer to:
Is MacKenzie Gore good?
Is MacKenzie Gore good?
December 8, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Here's a question I'm not certain I know the answer to:
Is MacKenzie Gore good?
Is MacKenzie Gore good?
When reached for comment, Orbit.
January 22, 2026 at 7:06 PM
When reached for comment, Orbit.
Altuve's response.
January 22, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Altuve's response.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
A revenue-sharing recipient possibly trading away an ace who costs a measly $8 million is a much bigger problem for MLB than anything the Dodgers are doing.
January 22, 2026 at 2:27 AM
A revenue-sharing recipient possibly trading away an ace who costs a measly $8 million is a much bigger problem for MLB than anything the Dodgers are doing.
orangefire.substack.com/p/jim-crane-...
Jim Crane spent the Imai press conference praising the team's stadium sponsor. I try to parse Crane's focus on a business relationship in explaining a baseball move.
Jim Crane spent the Imai press conference praising the team's stadium sponsor. I try to parse Crane's focus on a business relationship in explaining a baseball move.
Jim Crane, Daiken, and the Signing of Tatsuya Imai
Jim Crane spent the Imai press conference praising the team's stadium sponsor. I try to parse Crane's focus on a business relationship in explaining a baseball move.
orangefire.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 1:56 PM
orangefire.substack.com/p/jim-crane-...
Jim Crane spent the Imai press conference praising the team's stadium sponsor. I try to parse Crane's focus on a business relationship in explaining a baseball move.
Jim Crane spent the Imai press conference praising the team's stadium sponsor. I try to parse Crane's focus on a business relationship in explaining a baseball move.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Here her3. Thanks @notmrtibbs.com
Let us all make sure we give thanks for the amazing work from @notmrtibbs.com and his team during HOF SZN.
January 20, 2026 at 11:54 PM
Here her3. Thanks @notmrtibbs.com
2017 World Champion Carlos Beltran.
Carlos Beltrán is officially named a Baseball Hall of Famer.
January 20, 2026 at 11:26 PM
2017 World Champion Carlos Beltran.
This has been my analysis for several years now. Every since Beltran started rising in his 2nd year on the ballot
my take on it is that if beltran, the only guy actually named in the post-sign-stealing scandal report, is a hall of famer to the people who get votes, then Jose Altuve is basically assured election. maybe not on the first ballot but who cares
January 20, 2026 at 5:32 PM
This has been my analysis for several years now. Every since Beltran started rising in his 2nd year on the ballot
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Farewell Ryan Pressly
Baseballs last great postseason closer
open.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 10:33 PM
Get this man an orange jacket. Thanks for everything, Ryan.
Ryan Pressly, one of the most prolific postseason relievers of his era and a figurehead of the Houston Astros’ ascension into an American League superteam, announced his retirement from baseball today - www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
Ryan Pressly to retire after 13 seasons as reliever for Twins, Astros and Cubs
The two-time All-Star saved 117 games and recorded the last out of the 2022 World Series for Houston, where he spent seven seasons.
www.nytimes.com
January 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Get this man an orange jacket. Thanks for everything, Ryan.
orangefire.substack.com/p/the-baseba...
Subhead: Jim Crane's willingness to pay the luxury tax led to the Astros splurging at backup catcher--with good results. The desire to cut payroll has its biggest effect on depth pieces like Caratini.
Subhead: Jim Crane's willingness to pay the luxury tax led to the Astros splurging at backup catcher--with good results. The desire to cut payroll has its biggest effect on depth pieces like Caratini.
The Baseball and Financial Hole at Backup Catcher
Jim Crane's willingness to pay the luxury tax led to the Astros splurging at backup catcher--with good results. The desire to cut payroll has its biggest effect on depth pieces like Caratini.
orangefire.substack.com
January 17, 2026 at 5:49 PM
orangefire.substack.com/p/the-baseba...
Subhead: Jim Crane's willingness to pay the luxury tax led to the Astros splurging at backup catcher--with good results. The desire to cut payroll has its biggest effect on depth pieces like Caratini.
Subhead: Jim Crane's willingness to pay the luxury tax led to the Astros splurging at backup catcher--with good results. The desire to cut payroll has its biggest effect on depth pieces like Caratini.
Massively disappointing from an Astros standpoint.
Caratini will remain a backup in Minnesota, so my guess is the Astros didn't want to give him a 2nd year on the deal.
Caratini will remain a backup in Minnesota, so my guess is the Astros didn't want to give him a 2nd year on the deal.
The Twins are signing catcher Victor Caratini to a two-year contract, as Robert Murray first reported.
January 16, 2026 at 10:44 PM
Massively disappointing from an Astros standpoint.
Caratini will remain a backup in Minnesota, so my guess is the Astros didn't want to give him a 2nd year on the deal.
Caratini will remain a backup in Minnesota, so my guess is the Astros didn't want to give him a 2nd year on the deal.
Astros fans: I want Framber.
Dana Brown & Jim Crane: We have Framber at home.
Framber at home:
Dana Brown & Jim Crane: We have Framber at home.
Framber at home:
Houston Astros signed free agent C Fraimy Sanchez to a minor league contract.
January 16, 2026 at 6:53 PM
Astros fans: I want Framber.
Dana Brown & Jim Crane: We have Framber at home.
Framber at home:
Dana Brown & Jim Crane: We have Framber at home.
Framber at home:
On Tucker, I'm more upset the Astros FO traded a playoff appearance in 2025 for the ability to be just out of the playoffs in 2026 and 27 than what team he signed with.
Does Kyle Tucker becoming a dodger hurt my soul so deeply? Oh yeah. But the Astros wouldn't pay him, that's why he was a Cub in the first place.
January 16, 2026 at 2:46 PM
On Tucker, I'm more upset the Astros FO traded a playoff appearance in 2025 for the ability to be just out of the playoffs in 2026 and 27 than what team he signed with.
One thing is for sure...no Dodger fan is missing Frank McCourt right about now.
January 16, 2026 at 4:24 AM
One thing is for sure...no Dodger fan is missing Frank McCourt right about now.
Everyone watched the initial reporting of the Ohtani deal say "$700M," but then learned it was really essentially "$480M."
And based on how everybody is treating the $60M a year bit, apparently the lesson was believe the spin number the agent gives instead of waiting for the real one.
And based on how everybody is treating the $60M a year bit, apparently the lesson was believe the spin number the agent gives instead of waiting for the real one.
January 16, 2026 at 3:23 AM
Everyone watched the initial reporting of the Ohtani deal say "$700M," but then learned it was really essentially "$480M."
And based on how everybody is treating the $60M a year bit, apparently the lesson was believe the spin number the agent gives instead of waiting for the real one.
And based on how everybody is treating the $60M a year bit, apparently the lesson was believe the spin number the agent gives instead of waiting for the real one.
Reposted by Breathin' Orange Fire
Let’s wait until we hear about deferrals before getting too worked up about 4/$240M
January 16, 2026 at 3:11 AM
Let’s wait until we hear about deferrals before getting too worked up about 4/$240M
Shohei's actual AAV is something like $48M when you account for the time value of money on the deferrals (which the CBA does).
So maybe the highest AAV of all time depending on deferrals for Tucker.
So maybe the highest AAV of all time depending on deferrals for Tucker.
2nd highest AAV contract of all time behind Shohei…?
January 16, 2026 at 3:12 AM
Shohei's actual AAV is something like $48M when you account for the time value of money on the deferrals (which the CBA does).
So maybe the highest AAV of all time depending on deferrals for Tucker.
So maybe the highest AAV of all time depending on deferrals for Tucker.
2 years until the player option. There are almost no contracts in the majors like this. Very unusual.
January 16, 2026 at 3:10 AM
2 years until the player option. There are almost no contracts in the majors like this. Very unusual.
Incorrect. There is no redeeming Nickelback.
Nickelback Redemption Center
Independence, IA
Independence, IA
January 14, 2026 at 9:38 PM
Incorrect. There is no redeeming Nickelback.
Aaron Rodgers trying to make a tackle.
January 13, 2026 at 4:09 AM
Aaron Rodgers trying to make a tackle.