Paul T. Levin
@paultlevin.bsky.social
Director of the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies. Managing Director Consortium for European Symposia on Turkey. Docent (Assoc. Prof.) of and pontificator on international relations. Opinionated. Painter.
Pinned
Paul T. Levin
@paultlevin.bsky.social
· Nov 1
I wrote my first Substack piece! In it, I ask if Turkey isn’t a better comparison to a second Trump administration than Nazi Germany. What can the US learn from an already autocratized Turkey? That the Washington Post is a precursor of what may come.
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
Europe is building its own intel infrastructure for Ukraine—fast. The reason: America's growing unreliability.
France saw the US pause coming. Japan is now sharing sensitive satellite data with Kyiv—the first time Tokyo has done so for any foreign nation.
euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/29/f...
France saw the US pause coming. Japan is now sharing sensitive satellite data with Kyiv—the first time Tokyo has done so for any foreign nation.
euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/29/f...
FT: Europe mobilizes intelligence agencies to fill gap left by Washington’s retreat
Macron: France now provides two-thirds of Ukraine's intelligence
euromaidanpress.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Europe is building its own intel infrastructure for Ukraine—fast. The reason: America's growing unreliability.
France saw the US pause coming. Japan is now sharing sensitive satellite data with Kyiv—the first time Tokyo has done so for any foreign nation.
euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/29/f...
France saw the US pause coming. Japan is now sharing sensitive satellite data with Kyiv—the first time Tokyo has done so for any foreign nation.
euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/29/f...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
🇬🇧 A Russian ship has been chased out of British waters by a Royal Navy attack helicopter after anchoring over transatlantic data cables, - The Telegraph
The cargo vessel Sinegorsk sailed into the Bristol Channel on Tuesday night and appeared to have anchored about two miles off Minehead.
The cargo vessel Sinegorsk sailed into the Bristol Channel on Tuesday night and appeared to have anchored about two miles off Minehead.
January 29, 2026 at 8:40 PM
🇬🇧 A Russian ship has been chased out of British waters by a Royal Navy attack helicopter after anchoring over transatlantic data cables, - The Telegraph
The cargo vessel Sinegorsk sailed into the Bristol Channel on Tuesday night and appeared to have anchored about two miles off Minehead.
The cargo vessel Sinegorsk sailed into the Bristol Channel on Tuesday night and appeared to have anchored about two miles off Minehead.
Will the next big transatlantic conflict be over US hybrid warfare against Europe? Excellent interview about what Europe needs to do to defend itself without the US, with an American(!) former diplomat @maxbergmann.bsky.social
"I think with the EU, the [Trump] administration has decided to effectively declare a hybrid war against the European project...There's a huge effort to support and back the far-right in Europe...And why? Because the administration wants to break European unity."
youtu.be/5ALdXlatcCs?...
youtu.be/5ALdXlatcCs?...
How Europe Can Defend Itself Without America | Max Bergmann
YouTube video by The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus
youtu.be
January 29, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Will the next big transatlantic conflict be over US hybrid warfare against Europe? Excellent interview about what Europe needs to do to defend itself without the US, with an American(!) former diplomat @maxbergmann.bsky.social
Supporting separatist forces is what you do to your enemies in war.
1/ Trump Administration officials have reportedly held several secret meetings with Canadian separatists, who are seeking US$500 billion to bankroll their efforts. It suggests that the Administration is interested in breaking up Canada and absorbing the remnants. ⬇️
January 29, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Supporting separatist forces is what you do to your enemies in war.
I'm maybe not as immersed in my European history as I should be, but aren't all the recent posts with de Gaulle saying "I told you so!" missing the fact that he sabotaged the European Defence Community with reference to the "nightmare absurdity" of a supranational European army?
time.com
January 29, 2026 at 11:23 AM
I'm maybe not as immersed in my European history as I should be, but aren't all the recent posts with de Gaulle saying "I told you so!" missing the fact that he sabotaged the European Defence Community with reference to the "nightmare absurdity" of a supranational European army?
Better late than never. 👏
published on the UK government’s website.
- The countries caution that Russian tankers which change flags, switch off transponders, or lack proper documentation will be treated as stateless vessels. As such, they may be detained without legal repercussions.
- The countries caution that Russian tankers which change flags, switch off transponders, or lack proper documentation will be treated as stateless vessels. As such, they may be detained without legal repercussions.
January 28, 2026 at 10:50 PM
Better late than never. 👏
Om jag får vara lite politisk ett ögonblick: Det finns idag ett globalt existentiellt hot mot liberalismen: högernationalismen. Hur förväntar sig ett liberalt parti att liberala väljare ska rösta på dem om de samarbetar med ett högernationalistiskt parti vars existensberättigande är ANTI-LIBERALISM?
SVT: L-toppen: "Måste prata om röda linjen mot SD" www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
L-toppen: Måste prata om röda linjen mot SD
Liberalernas 1,4 procent i opinionen skakar om partiet. I helgen möts partistyrelsen för ett möte där diskussioner väntas om de röda linjerna mot SD. – Det måste vi ta upp och prata om såklart, säger ...
www.svt.se
January 28, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Om jag får vara lite politisk ett ögonblick: Det finns idag ett globalt existentiellt hot mot liberalismen: högernationalismen. Hur förväntar sig ett liberalt parti att liberala väljare ska rösta på dem om de samarbetar med ett högernationalistiskt parti vars existensberättigande är ANTI-LIBERALISM?
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
❗❗
Swedens is now in preliminary highest level talks on nuclear cooperation with UK and France.
We are now holding ongoing discussions with both France and the United Kingdom, said Prime Minister Kristersson.
breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...
We are now holding ongoing discussions with both France and the United Kingdom, said Prime Minister Kristersson.
breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...
Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation - Breaking Defense
"I say that when we joined NATO, we are fully involved in all discussions, including those in Europe revolving around nuclear weapons," Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.
breakingdefense.com
January 28, 2026 at 7:38 PM
❗❗
Generally, I don't think that hypocrisy bothers MAGA politicians at all. Truth is subservient to whatever is needed to win their political war. On this, however, I think that they may have a problem, because their arguments now directly challenge key constituencies: NRA/2nd amendment guys/militias.
Trump on Jan 27: "You can't have guns. You can't walk around with guns."
Patel on Jan 25: "You cannot bring a firearm loaded with multiple magazines to any sort of protest that you want. It's that simple. You don't have the right to break the law and incite violence."
Here are the MAGA faithful.
Patel on Jan 25: "You cannot bring a firearm loaded with multiple magazines to any sort of protest that you want. It's that simple. You don't have the right to break the law and incite violence."
Here are the MAGA faithful.
January 28, 2026 at 7:49 PM
Generally, I don't think that hypocrisy bothers MAGA politicians at all. Truth is subservient to whatever is needed to win their political war. On this, however, I think that they may have a problem, because their arguments now directly challenge key constituencies: NRA/2nd amendment guys/militias.
The President of Moldova just spoke before the Council of Europe about Europe’s two wars. The first one is Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine, but there is a second war that is no less dangerous to us. David Smith has the whole speech on Substack.+
"Europe is at war again. Two wars, in fact"
“One destroys cities. The other erodes trust.” Maia Sandu addresses the Council of Europe
open.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:41 PM
The President of Moldova just spoke before the Council of Europe about Europe’s two wars. The first one is Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine, but there is a second war that is no less dangerous to us. David Smith has the whole speech on Substack.+
"It's time also for Europe to take down its sign."
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, VP of the European Commission.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, VP of the European Commission.
We want strong trans-Atlantic ties.
But Europe needs to adapt to new realities.
It is no longer Washington’s primary centre of gravity.
It’s time for Europe to step up and act with urgency.
Extract of my speech at the European Defence Agency conference ↓
But Europe needs to adapt to new realities.
It is no longer Washington’s primary centre of gravity.
It’s time for Europe to step up and act with urgency.
Extract of my speech at the European Defence Agency conference ↓
January 28, 2026 at 2:04 PM
"It's time also for Europe to take down its sign."
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, VP of the European Commission.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, VP of the European Commission.
This may seem petty, but it’s actually strategic. I think that it is important that we all remember the actors like Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, and Columbia University, who sold out their principles & made deals with Trump. They need to pay a high reputational cost for all to see.
January 27, 2026 at 10:41 PM
This may seem petty, but it’s actually strategic. I think that it is important that we all remember the actors like Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, and Columbia University, who sold out their principles & made deals with Trump. They need to pay a high reputational cost for all to see.
Turkish proverb:
When you put a clown in a palace, the clown doesn’t become a sultan, the palace becomes a circus.
When you put a clown in a palace, the clown doesn’t become a sultan, the palace becomes a circus.
January 27, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Turkish proverb:
When you put a clown in a palace, the clown doesn’t become a sultan, the palace becomes a circus.
When you put a clown in a palace, the clown doesn’t become a sultan, the palace becomes a circus.
Trump does deserve the Noble™️ Peace Price. 🇬🇱
January 27, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Trump does deserve the Noble™️ Peace Price. 🇬🇱
Anecdotally, I hear from senior European academics that their calls get a lot more US applicants these days, and grumblings from junior European scholars that they now have to compete with people from US Ivy Leagues.
Gutting the state of highly skilled individuals, along with diminishing the autonomy of higher education, will eventually lead to brain drain in the U.S.
The US government has lost more than 10,000 people with PhDs in the STEM or health fields since Trump 2.0 took office — 14% of the federal civil servants with PhDs in those areas, a @ScienceMagazine analysis shows.
What could possibly go wrong? www.science.org/content/arti...
What could possibly go wrong? www.science.org/content/arti...
January 27, 2026 at 6:02 PM
Anecdotally, I hear from senior European academics that their calls get a lot more US applicants these days, and grumblings from junior European scholars that they now have to compete with people from US Ivy Leagues.
“America is soiling itself” is an apt description of the effect of this administration’s foreign policies as well as its economic policies. And most of its other policies, too, for that matter.
So, do I think the current dollar "vibe shift" is different? Yes. Because unlike sanctions risk, which is concentrated among a subset of states and therefore only hurts the dollar's appeal among that group, the political forces weighing on the dollar today are global. 5/
January 27, 2026 at 5:58 PM
“America is soiling itself” is an apt description of the effect of this administration’s foreign policies as well as its economic policies. And most of its other policies, too, for that matter.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.
January 26, 2026 at 7:48 PM
One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.
Indeed. Here's what I wrote in October of 2024. I am guessing many have thought of me as an "alarmist" regarding Trump since around 2015, but I was right to be alarmed. The only things I got wrong were when I tempered my worst fears not to sound crazy.
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
January 26, 2026 at 3:58 PM
Indeed. Here's what I wrote in October of 2024. I am guessing many have thought of me as an "alarmist" regarding Trump since around 2015, but I was right to be alarmed. The only things I got wrong were when I tempered my worst fears not to sound crazy.
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
The Nordic Nuke Debate™️ has gone international:
"The Nordic countries could offer something genuinely new in the field of nuclear command and control, tackling both moral and psychological aspects of deterrence."
Proposals include a rotating nuclear football amongst the Nordic leaders.
"The Nordic countries could offer something genuinely new in the field of nuclear command and control, tackling both moral and psychological aspects of deterrence."
Proposals include a rotating nuclear football amongst the Nordic leaders.
Is it Time for a Nordic Nuke?
Moscow’s “Oreshnik” strike on January 9, 2026 is best understood as strategic signaling designed to shape what NATO will and will not do. Russia’s use of
warontherocks.com
January 26, 2026 at 9:40 AM
The Nordic Nuke Debate™️ has gone international:
"The Nordic countries could offer something genuinely new in the field of nuclear command and control, tackling both moral and psychological aspects of deterrence."
Proposals include a rotating nuclear football amongst the Nordic leaders.
"The Nordic countries could offer something genuinely new in the field of nuclear command and control, tackling both moral and psychological aspects of deterrence."
Proposals include a rotating nuclear football amongst the Nordic leaders.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
Foreign Minister of Germany Johann Wadephul:
We know that the hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea area are real. This also includes the fact that Russia is obviously destroying submarine cables.
Russian shadow fleet is not only a threat because they continue to generate revenue for Russia.
We know that the hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea area are real. This also includes the fact that Russia is obviously destroying submarine cables.
Russian shadow fleet is not only a threat because they continue to generate revenue for Russia.
January 26, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Foreign Minister of Germany Johann Wadephul:
We know that the hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea area are real. This also includes the fact that Russia is obviously destroying submarine cables.
Russian shadow fleet is not only a threat because they continue to generate revenue for Russia.
We know that the hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea area are real. This also includes the fact that Russia is obviously destroying submarine cables.
Russian shadow fleet is not only a threat because they continue to generate revenue for Russia.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
🇸🇾 Russian forces withdrawing from Qamishli airport in Syria, - K24
January 26, 2026 at 10:01 AM
🇸🇾 Russian forces withdrawing from Qamishli airport in Syria, - K24
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
Nevertheless, in addition to the FTA (where details will also matter) this is significant because it is the first EU security and defence partnership outside of the traditional Western partners (UK, Canada, Norway, Japan, South Korea etc).
January 26, 2026 at 10:10 AM
Nevertheless, in addition to the FTA (where details will also matter) this is significant because it is the first EU security and defence partnership outside of the traditional Western partners (UK, Canada, Norway, Japan, South Korea etc).
Some good news from Syria at least.
Syria extends ceasefire with SDF by 15 days
Syrian Defence Ministry says extension aims to help transfer of ISIL prisoners from facilities previously held by SDF.
www.aljazeera.com
January 25, 2026 at 6:27 PM
Some good news from Syria at least.
Food for thought. The GOP has since I guess Buchanan or Gingrich thought of politics & law essentially as instruments of war where almost anything goes. Democrats adopting their approach will harm institutions, but can you in the long run play by the rules if your opponent doesn’t?
🧵 It's time for pro-democracy forces in the United States, most notably in the Democratic party, to approach Constitutional Law in the same way that the Roberts court does: as an instrument of power, in which niceties such as "text" and "original meaning" are as flexible as silly putty.
January 25, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Food for thought. The GOP has since I guess Buchanan or Gingrich thought of politics & law essentially as instruments of war where almost anything goes. Democrats adopting their approach will harm institutions, but can you in the long run play by the rules if your opponent doesn’t?
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
Murphy on Bovino: "That was a bone-chilling interview. I was shaking while I was listening to it, in large part bc it takes just an unbelievable amount of gall to lie to the American public. Everybody saw that video ... it should freak the public out that the Trump administration lies this easily"
January 25, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Murphy on Bovino: "That was a bone-chilling interview. I was shaking while I was listening to it, in large part bc it takes just an unbelievable amount of gall to lie to the American public. Everybody saw that video ... it should freak the public out that the Trump administration lies this easily"