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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 4h

Ouch! The Kafa substation is a bit of a bottleneck for electricity supply in Crimea. This will hurt.

Feodosia is also traditionally one of the most Russian-populated cities in Crimea. How long before waves of emigration start in earnest?

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 8h

"Summer blend diesel starts to form wax crystals around -15°C (5°F), which clogs fuel filters".

There is a very real chance that many Russian car owners will soon find their fuel tanks filled with an ice-cold substance vaguely resembling blackcurrant jam.

malcontentment.com/russian-oil-...

Russian Oil Refineries Beyond the Breaking Point as Shortages Spread

A major accident at the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery adds to Russian gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel woes.

malcontentment.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 12h

It will get worse, significantly worse. Russian oil refineries are currently switching from production of summer diesel to winter diesel - and it is not going very well.

www.oreanda-news.com/en/tek/stock...

Stock prices for diesel fuel in Russia soared

The cost of diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange soared to a maximum in two years

www.oreanda-news.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 16h

Let us give due credit here: The geolocation in question was made by @blinzka on Twitter (also here on Bluesky as @blinzka.bsky.social).

Screenshot of geolocation of Ukrainian strike against the Smolensk Aviation Plant, October 2025, by @Blinzka on Twitter - https://x.com/blinzka/status/1977128280336793837

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Ukrainian drones appear to have hit the Smolensk Aviation Plant. It manufactures Kh-59 missiles, which have been used in several attacks against Ukraine.

bsky.app/profile/baba...

Baba Yaga Fèlla @babayagafella.bsky.social · 1d

Local residents report explosions in Smolensk, a UAV threat has been declared in the region, smoke is rising over the city.

GEOINT specialist Blinzka, having geolocated the filming location, concluded that the smoke most likely rises from the area of the airfield and the

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

The roads near Rylsk have some interesting dining options. With smashing reviews.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Not so fast - CyberBoroshno claims that the AVT-5 unit at the nearby Bashneft-Novoil refinery was hit.

It cannot yet confirm earlier reports about a strike at the Bashneft-UNPZ, also in Ufa.

It is all a bit confusing now, but we should know more soon.

bsky.app/profile/citi...

Citizen Snippy △ @citizensnippy.bsky.social · 1d

Just noticed CyberBoroshno believes it was Novoil.

t.me/kiber_borosh...

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Haha! Perhaps something impeded their uploads?

english.nv.ua/russian-war/...

Internet outages in Russia surge as Ukrainian drones target infrastructure

Mass Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s critical infrastructure have caused major internet disruptions, leaving parts of the country without stable connections for months, the Financial Times reporte...

english.nv.ua

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, that cluster of oil refineries near Ufa can be super confusing.

CyberBoroshno's claim is interesting, but other news articles and social media posts I have seen so far only mention the UNPZ.

Did they really get two this time? Hopefully so!

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

Did he not make a mistake this time? It was reportedly the Bashneft-UNPZ that was hit, not the Bashneft-Novoil facility.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

I know the Internet is obsessed with Flamingos, but those AN-196 Liutyi drones really deserve some love too. They have been the bane of Russian oil refineries so far.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

The UNPZ is in the fourth row, second from the left. The other one is a nearby oil refinery, also in Ufa - they are easy to confuse.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 1d

The Bashneft-UNPZ refinery was also hit last month, but the destruction today of its AVT-6 unit - if confirmed - is bad news for Russians looking for petrol or diesel.

bsky.app/profile/paxl...

Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 7d

Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.

In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4

bsky.app/profile/paxl...

'Bingo card' with Russian oil refineries, updated 4 October 2025. Source: https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1974313946304905510/photo/1

(NB: After this illustration was published on Twitter, another attack took place against the Kstovo Refinery on 5 October 2025.)

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

The Russian military uses fuel?

Horse pulling a wagon made of the remnants of a DDR-made Trabant car.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

You remember this one?

bsky.app/profile/arrd...

Arr David @arrdavid.bsky.social · 10d

Sting, a Ukrainian interceptor drone especially built for an all-female air defence team led by a female commander.
"How would you like it to look?"
"Ohhh, like a flying pink dildo of death and destruction".

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Of course you will.

bsky.app/profile/spec...

🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 @specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 5d

Russians mounted a turret from a BMP-1 with a 73mm 2A28 Grom on a roof of a civilian Moskvich

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Kind of like late Brezhnevian politics in the USSR, just with less stability.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Well, you know...

US soldiers kneeling in Anchorage, Alaska, in order to put the red carpet in place for the visiting President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, August 2025.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Exhibit A on the list of potential countertargets in Russia: The large Novobryanskaya Transmission Hub southwest of Bryansk, a mere stone's throw from free Ukraine.

bsky.app/profile/did:...

Background information on the Novobryanskaya Transmission Hub, Russia. Source: https://x.com/BruckenRuski/status/1765065591252255126/photo/1

Satellite map showing facilities at the Novobryanskaya Transmission Hub, Russia. Source: https://x.com/BruckenRuski/status/1765065591252255126/photo/4

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 2d

Ukraine no longer seems to have any compunctions in terms of targeting power plants and electrical infrastructure in tit-for-tat attacks.

I would expect retaliation against Belgorod and Kursk as well as possibly Bryansk, Voronezh, Orel, Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don.

bsky.app/profile/maks...

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 3d

🔥 If Russia makes blackouts, it will get a response. Ukraine has the ability to hit Kursk and Belgorod regions, - Zelensky.

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Russian foreign policy desperation.

bsky.app/profile/did:...

Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

A Russian attempt of diplomatic damage control, doubtlessly with a wary eye towards future US (and European) involvement in the Zangezur Corridor.

Like anything else Russian, it is highly unlikely to work.

jamestown.org/program/azer...

Azerbaijan–Russia Relations Continue to Deteriorate

Executive Summary: Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have degenerated over the past several months, but until recently, the two countries aimed to keep the crisis under control. Moscow’s aggress...

jamestown.org

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

A Russian attempt of diplomatic damage control, doubtlessly with a wary eye towards future US (and European) involvement in the Zangezur Corridor.

Like anything else Russian, it is highly unlikely to work.

jamestown.org/program/azer...

Azerbaijan–Russia Relations Continue to Deteriorate

Executive Summary: Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have degenerated over the past several months, but until recently, the two countries aimed to keep the crisis under control. Moscow’s aggress...

jamestown.org

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Chinese ITAR-like restrictions on equipment containing imported rare earth components would be a scary prospect for Europe.

However, countries like Norway and Sweden have sizeable rare earth reserves too. Large-scale extraction capacity must be built up soon.

www.iris-france.org/en/187043-ra...

Rare Earth Deposit Discovered in Norway: A Good News for European Mineral Sovereignty? - IRIS

A few days ago, 8.8 million tonnes of rare earths were discovered in south-east Norway. An essential chemical element in the low-carbon, ecological and digital transition, this discovery could reshuff...

www.iris-france.org

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

This happened several weeks ago. We already have damage assessment of the attack, which was likely executed for calibration purposes. It remains the only confirmed Flamingo strike so far.

missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-c...

Flamingo Cruise Missile Sees First Combat Use - What Does it Say About the Missile's Effectiveness?

Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile successfully destroyed part of an FSB outpost in Crimea, but the attack also exposes shortcomings.

missilematters.substack.com

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Pax Lusitanica @paxlusitanica.bsky.social · 3d

Likely both. Note the railway tracks in the bottom left corner of the satellite photo I posted.

bsky.app/profile/euro...

Euromaidan Press @euromaidanpress.bsky.social · 3d

At least five drones have reportedly struck the oil refinery and railway station in Russia's Matveev Kurgan, Rostov Oblast

The extent of damage is currently unclear.
📹Exilenova+, Supernova+

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