Rob Carlson
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robcarlson.bsky.social
Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.

Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social

2024 Bloomberg Green Champion

Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social

Home: synthesis.cc
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Intro 🧵

Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.

I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.

Present topics:

Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
February 11, 2026 at 2:26 AM
A fellow could get used to this. #Seattle
February 10, 2026 at 11:09 PM
Hello #energysky.

This PV mag piece asserts that "[grid forming] systems cost 10% to 15% more than standard storage, but that price gap is disappearing", evidently from Woods Mackenzie.

Can anyone corroborate that? Other data?

Thanks in advance.

pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/f...
Five trends for energy storage as global market passes 100 GW
A report from Wood Mackenzie identifies five key trends that will define the energy storage industry in 2026, including supply chain restructuring and the rise of non-lithium batteries.
pv-magazine-usa.com
February 10, 2026 at 10:36 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
In a paper published in @nature.com, a team of @uofwa.uw.edu #UWAllen and @ai2.bsky.social researchers unveiled OpenScholar, an #AI system that can cite scientific papers as accurately as human experts and incorporate new research after training. #UWdiscovers
www.washington.edu/news/2026/02...
In a study, AI model OpenScholar synthesizes scientific research and cites sources as accurately as human experts
A UW and Ai2 research team built OpenScholar, an open-source AI model designed specifically to synthesize current scientific research. In tests, OpenScholar cited sources as accurately as human...
www.washington.edu
February 10, 2026 at 8:29 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
In review:

Watch what bankers do. They don't like to lose money.
bsky.app/profile/plan...
February 10, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Terrific news from Fervo Energy yesterday actually, drilled in under 11 days, the vertical appraisal well into 555F rocks marks the hottest well drilled in company history, further de-risking and expanding Fervo’s pipeline of enhanced geothermal projects.
fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy...
Fervo Energy Drills Hottest Well to Date at New Giga-Scale Geothermal Project Site - Fervo Energy
HOUSTON, TX (February 9, 2026) – Fervo Energy, a leader in next-generation geothermal development, has announced the successful completion of an appraisal
fervoenergy.com
February 10, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”

First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.

And, well.
February 10, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Good morning, #Seattle.
February 10, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Someone was impatient for me to open up the blinds this morning to let the sun in.
February 10, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
I tried to take a photo of a grasshopper on my windshield, but now it looks like a gigantic bug destroying the town.
February 10, 2026 at 6:10 AM
Geothermal is ALREADY cost-competitive with fossil fuels in Europe.

Around 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the EU could be developed below €100/MWh today - compared to coal and gas prices fluctuating between €90–€150/MWh.

ember-energy.org/lat...
February 10, 2026 at 7:15 AM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Theres ample evidence that the ability to love evolved deep in the animal family tree.
In good news, a little one was born in Utah🦒

www.sltrib.com/news/2026/01...
February 10, 2026 at 6:09 AM
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”

First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.

And, well.
February 10, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Reboosting this from @planetaryops.bsky.social portfolio company @lumenbio.bsky.social , because it is so damn cool.

LMN-201 is composed of three antibodies and a lysin, making it the most complex biologic yet used in humans.
February 10, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
This is a great story.

#ecovoltaics #naturalsecurity 🔌💡

Makes me wonder about working the bats into the business model.

Subscription bats?

B/c bats pollinate ~40% of food crops, provide 10's of $B in insect control services to US farmers, and save human lives by obviating the use of pesticides.
Research finds solar can support bird, bat activities #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: pv-magazine-usa.com/...
December 10, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A slide from a talk I gave last fall at the Hoover Institution:

The U.S. has, of course, now abandoned the effort to build up a baseline knowledge base of the economic value the services provided by bats, bees, trees, and everything else people imagine are free.
December 10, 2025 at 8:41 PM
This makes the conservative economic value of clean air $1T annually in the U.S.

And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
Air pollution from burning fossil fuels causes 100,000 to 200,000 avoidable American deaths per year. At the EPA's statistical value of life of $10 million, these deaths cost America $1 to $2 trillion per year, every year. These costs far outweigh the costs of transitioning off of fossil fuels.
Air pollution deaths attributable to fossil fuels: observational and modelling study
Objectives To estimate all cause and cause specific deaths that are attributable to fossil fuel related air pollution and to assess potential health benefits from policies that replace fossil fuels wi...
www.bmj.com
February 9, 2026 at 8:44 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A chance to learn from the best in the business.
The Economist is hiring an intern to spend three months in London writing about science and technology. Apply by March 6th
The Economist’s science and technology internship
We invite applications for the 2026 Richard Casement internship
econ.st
February 5, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
February 3, 2026 at 10:55 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Related:

#CAISO now regularly exports electricity during daylight hours. Net electricity imports have fallen ~60% over the last 5 years. h/t @gridstatus.io
🔌💡
blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-solar-...
February 6, 2026 at 7:52 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
“So on solar, we are seeing no change, if anything, an acceleration, and we’re trying to pull projects forward as fast as possible. On wind, onshore wind, there has been some slowdown in permitting from the federal government, but projects are still getting done.”
🔌💡
February 8, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
Battery prices plunge 60 pct in two years, changing face of grid and the nature of contracts
Battery storage major says costs have fallen 60 pct in two years, helping redefine the grid and customer needs, and along with solar is cheapest and easiest to build.
reneweconomy.com.au
February 8, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Now everyone is singing a “let’s go victory!” sort of thing in Afar or Ahmaric that I can’t understand, which is icing on the cake.
I’m not the biggest American football fan, and I am watching the #Superbowl in a neighborhood Ethiopian restaurant in Seattle.

All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
February 9, 2026 at 2:31 AM
I’m not the biggest American football fan, and I am watching the #Superbowl in a neighborhood Ethiopian restaurant in Seattle.

All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
February 9, 2026 at 2:12 AM
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
Battery prices plunge 60 pct in two years, changing face of grid and the nature of contracts
Battery storage major says costs have fallen 60 pct in two years, helping redefine the grid and customer needs, and along with solar is cheapest and easiest to build.
reneweconomy.com.au
February 8, 2026 at 9:16 PM