Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Pinned
Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Intro 🧵
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
"VCs like to envision the future in a science fiction-y way."
Um, *this* VC likes to envision the future in a science-y way.
Imagining, and investing in, fiction-y things is a great way to lose money.
(Not that science-y things can't lose money. Ahem.)
Um, *this* VC likes to envision the future in a science-y way.
Imagining, and investing in, fiction-y things is a great way to lose money.
(Not that science-y things can't lose money. Ahem.)
I talked to Pitchbook about the proposed million sat constellation pitchbook.com/news/article...
A leading astrophysicist has some questions for Elon - PitchBook
A Q&A with Jonathan McDowell, a leading expert on Earth orbit, about his doubts that SpaceX can pull off its vision of orbital data centers powering the world.
pitchbook.com
February 6, 2026 at 12:24 AM
"VCs like to envision the future in a science fiction-y way."
Um, *this* VC likes to envision the future in a science-y way.
Imagining, and investing in, fiction-y things is a great way to lose money.
(Not that science-y things can't lose money. Ahem.)
Um, *this* VC likes to envision the future in a science-y way.
Imagining, and investing in, fiction-y things is a great way to lose money.
(Not that science-y things can't lose money. Ahem.)
So much winning.
US Companies Announced Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Companies Announced Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Companies Announced Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
US companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.
www.bloomberg.com
February 5, 2026 at 11:18 PM
So much winning.
US Companies Announced Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Companies Announced Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
February 3, 2026 at 10:55 PM
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Here he is predicting "SpaceX will launch and operate more AI compute annually than the cumulative total on Earth [requiring] 10K Starship launches per year... possibly 30K."
10K/yr is ~30/day; >1/hr. Even with 2 launch sites, this seems logistically optimistic.
science.slashdot.org/story/26/02/...
10K/yr is ~30/day; >1/hr. Even with 2 launch sites, this seems logistically optimistic.
science.slashdot.org/story/26/02/...
Musk Predicts SpaceX Will Launch More AI Compute Per Year Than the Cumulative Total on Earth - Slashdot
Elon Musk told podcast host Dwarkesh Patel and Stripe co-founder John Collison that space will become the most economically compelling location for AI data centers in less than 36 months, a prediction...
science.slashdot.org
February 5, 2026 at 8:54 PM
Here he is predicting "SpaceX will launch and operate more AI compute annually than the cumulative total on Earth [requiring] 10K Starship launches per year... possibly 30K."
10K/yr is ~30/day; >1/hr. Even with 2 launch sites, this seems logistically optimistic.
science.slashdot.org/story/26/02/...
10K/yr is ~30/day; >1/hr. Even with 2 launch sites, this seems logistically optimistic.
science.slashdot.org/story/26/02/...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
February 5, 2026 at 3:06 PM
A chance to learn from the best in the business.
The Economist is hiring an intern to spend three months in London writing about science and technology. Apply by March 6th
The Economist’s science and technology internship
We invite applications for the 2026 Richard Casement internship
econ.st
February 5, 2026 at 4:35 PM
A chance to learn from the best in the business.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
That‘s the spirit.
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 AM
That‘s the spirit.
So much this.
👇🏼
👇🏼
Side note: really feel like we need to just call dumb things dumb more. We went off track with being nice about dumbness
This is so fucking stupid. No one wants this, even the car companies! Only cranky old guys who just want to go back to the 1980s.
theicct.org/pr-nhtsa-pro...
theicct.org/pr-nhtsa-pro...
February 4, 2026 at 10:13 PM
So much this.
👇🏼
👇🏼
Reposted by Rob Carlson
More thoughtful reporting on data centers in space.
But there is a physics problem that all these companies have to solve (next posts).
It would make way more sense to build data centers on Luna b/c then you can use the moon as a heat sink.
(H/t @eaterofsun.bsky.social)
bsky.app/profile/lore...
But there is a physics problem that all these companies have to solve (next posts).
It would make way more sense to build data centers on Luna b/c then you can use the moon as a heat sink.
(H/t @eaterofsun.bsky.social)
bsky.app/profile/lore...
Did a dive into the engineering challenges posed by data centers in space. They could work! But there's a lot of technological development to be done www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why AI Data Centers in Space Aren’t Totally Science Fiction
Tech billionaires want to move AI’s massive energy demands off Earth. The engineering hurdles are enormous.
www.bloomberg.com
January 13, 2026 at 6:16 PM
More thoughtful reporting on data centers in space.
But there is a physics problem that all these companies have to solve (next posts).
It would make way more sense to build data centers on Luna b/c then you can use the moon as a heat sink.
(H/t @eaterofsun.bsky.social)
bsky.app/profile/lore...
But there is a physics problem that all these companies have to solve (next posts).
It would make way more sense to build data centers on Luna b/c then you can use the moon as a heat sink.
(H/t @eaterofsun.bsky.social)
bsky.app/profile/lore...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Or you could go the other way, and for a fixed size of radiator on orbit you could improve processor efficiency by plugging in new 20ft TEUs (based on image above).
But now your thermal budget limits your competitiveness.
Again, seems better to go straight to Luna (or another large heat sink).
But now your thermal budget limits your competitiveness.
Again, seems better to go straight to Luna (or another large heat sink).
January 13, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Or you could go the other way, and for a fixed size of radiator on orbit you could improve processor efficiency by plugging in new 20ft TEUs (based on image above).
But now your thermal budget limits your competitiveness.
Again, seems better to go straight to Luna (or another large heat sink).
But now your thermal budget limits your competitiveness.
Again, seems better to go straight to Luna (or another large heat sink).
Reposted by Rob Carlson
The size of a data center in earth orbit with N processors scales roughly as N^(1/3), but the size (and thus mass) of the radiator scales as N (maybe faster).
As you double N, the radiator becomes an increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) launch and operational problem compared to the processors.
As you double N, the radiator becomes an increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) launch and operational problem compared to the processors.
January 13, 2026 at 6:16 PM
The size of a data center in earth orbit with N processors scales roughly as N^(1/3), but the size (and thus mass) of the radiator scales as N (maybe faster).
As you double N, the radiator becomes an increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) launch and operational problem compared to the processors.
As you double N, the radiator becomes an increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) launch and operational problem compared to the processors.
Good thread.
My first thought about the merger rumors was that he had realized that at least one of the companies was not economically viable, while simultaneously its survival was necessary for his story, his ego, and maintaining his loans against equity in Tesla.
My first thought about the merger rumors was that he had realized that at least one of the companies was not economically viable, while simultaneously its survival was necessary for his story, his ego, and maintaining his loans against equity in Tesla.
Some thoughts about xAI and SpaceX
🧵n≅20
The newspaper's first take is here
www.economist.com/business/202...
🧵n≅20
The newspaper's first take is here
www.economist.com/business/202...
Elon Musk’s mega-merger makes little business sense
The AI economy’s dealmaking keeps getting wilder
www.economist.com
February 4, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Good thread.
My first thought about the merger rumors was that he had realized that at least one of the companies was not economically viable, while simultaneously its survival was necessary for his story, his ego, and maintaining his loans against equity in Tesla.
My first thought about the merger rumors was that he had realized that at least one of the companies was not economically viable, while simultaneously its survival was necessary for his story, his ego, and maintaining his loans against equity in Tesla.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
👇
A reminder that bringing shitty posts over from That Fascist Site to be performatively angry about them here is a choice you don't have to make! You can just leave them there! There is so much else to be legitimately angry about! You will not lack for content!
January 15, 2026 at 12:22 AM
👇
Reposted by Rob Carlson
What happens when the Winter Olympics can't rely on winter?
For one, all the cities that staged the Winter Games since 1950 have heated up in the years since by an average of 2.7C.
Read the full story w @hayleywarren.bsky.social via @bloomberg.com for FREE
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
For one, all the cities that staged the Winter Games since 1950 have heated up in the years since by an average of 2.7C.
Read the full story w @hayleywarren.bsky.social via @bloomberg.com for FREE
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
Winter Olympics Faces New Climate Reality
Unpredictable conditions are limiting where it’s physically and financially possible to host the Winter Olympics.
www.bloomberg.com
February 4, 2026 at 8:25 AM
What happens when the Winter Olympics can't rely on winter?
For one, all the cities that staged the Winter Games since 1950 have heated up in the years since by an average of 2.7C.
Read the full story w @hayleywarren.bsky.social via @bloomberg.com for FREE
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
For one, all the cities that staged the Winter Games since 1950 have heated up in the years since by an average of 2.7C.
Read the full story w @hayleywarren.bsky.social via @bloomberg.com for FREE
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
Tempting.
CALLING ALL EARLY BIRDS 🗣️
We will be broadcasting BOTH of our friendlies in Marbella this Thursday!
* SSFC v. Hammarby IF, 4 a.m. PT*
* SSFC v. Metalist FC 1925, 7 a.m. PT*
*Times subject to change.
READ MORE ➡️ sndrs.com/c2sqkbnu
We will be broadcasting BOTH of our friendlies in Marbella this Thursday!
* SSFC v. Hammarby IF, 4 a.m. PT*
* SSFC v. Metalist FC 1925, 7 a.m. PT*
*Times subject to change.
READ MORE ➡️ sndrs.com/c2sqkbnu
February 4, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Tempting.
So, #energysky peeps: is there a CAISO version of this plot? CAISO must have equivalent (or better) data. Presumably it would show that 1) wholesale prices in CA peak in the shoulder hours when they burn gas and import electricity, and 2) batteries are lowering prices?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
February 3, 2026 at 11:52 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
So, #energysky peeps: is there a CAISO version of this plot? CAISO must have equivalent (or better) data. Presumably it would show that 1) wholesale prices in CA peak in the shoulder hours when they burn gas and import electricity, and 2) batteries are lowering prices?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
February 3, 2026 at 11:51 PM
So, #energysky peeps: is there a CAISO version of this plot? CAISO must have equivalent (or better) data. Presumably it would show that 1) wholesale prices in CA peak in the shoulder hours when they burn gas and import electricity, and 2) batteries are lowering prices?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
@mzjacobson.bsky.social?
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Chapter 2: Early signs of the impact of batteries.
Excellent. Very well done.
"Batteries started to compete with gas power in 2025"
🔌💡
Excellent. Very well done.
"Batteries started to compete with gas power in 2025"
🔌💡
Renewables are also driving down the cost of power. The future will be electric & renewable. Get the details from the EMBER European Electricity Review 2026 🧪🔌💡☀️💨💧🔋 ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
European Electricity Review 2026 | Ember
The EU’s electricity transition reached a new milestone in 2025 with wind and solar generating more power than fossil fuels.
ember-energy.org
January 24, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Chapter 2: Early signs of the impact of batteries.
Excellent. Very well done.
"Batteries started to compete with gas power in 2025"
🔌💡
Excellent. Very well done.
"Batteries started to compete with gas power in 2025"
🔌💡
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
February 3, 2026 at 10:55 PM
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
‘BESS installations across EU Member States 45% year-on-year growth…12 years of growth…23% growth in 2024…first year in which utility-scale BESS installations outpaced distributed residential battery adoption…15 GWh utility scale deployed, 55% of capacity’
www.energy-storage.news/european-uni...
www.energy-storage.news/european-uni...
February 3, 2026 at 6:33 PM
‘BESS installations across EU Member States 45% year-on-year growth…12 years of growth…23% growth in 2024…first year in which utility-scale BESS installations outpaced distributed residential battery adoption…15 GWh utility scale deployed, 55% of capacity’
www.energy-storage.news/european-uni...
www.energy-storage.news/european-uni...
So many batteries coming to India…
India curtails 2.3 TWh of solar between May and December 2025 #energysky -- via pv magazine global: www.pv-magazine.com/...
February 3, 2026 at 4:19 AM
So many batteries coming to India…
Reposted by Rob Carlson
National lab projects enhanced geothermal cost could decline to $100/MWh by 2035 #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: pv-magazine-usa.com/...
February 2, 2026 at 7:17 PM
National lab projects enhanced geothermal cost could decline to $100/MWh by 2035 #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: pv-magazine-usa.com/...
Well, that's quite something.
Best of luck, Obed.
Best of luck, Obed.
NEWS | We have transferred midfielder Obed Vargas to La Liga’s Atlético de Madrid.
We wish you all the best, Obed! Once A Sounder, Always A Sounder. 💚
READ ➡️ sndrs.com/1z2djw5q
We wish you all the best, Obed! Once A Sounder, Always A Sounder. 💚
READ ➡️ sndrs.com/1z2djw5q
February 2, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Well, that's quite something.
Best of luck, Obed.
Best of luck, Obed.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
More renewables = lower electricity prices.
Also: Nyuck Nyuck! youtu.be/FbjiKIKzY3c
But, seriously, folks: Gas is flaming out.
#energysky
The rise of battery storage, and why the grid is rapidly passing gas!
reneweconomy.com.au/the-rise-of-...
Also: Nyuck Nyuck! youtu.be/FbjiKIKzY3c
But, seriously, folks: Gas is flaming out.
#energysky
The rise of battery storage, and why the grid is rapidly passing gas!
reneweconomy.com.au/the-rise-of-...
February 2, 2026 at 6:20 PM
More renewables = lower electricity prices.
Also: Nyuck Nyuck! youtu.be/FbjiKIKzY3c
But, seriously, folks: Gas is flaming out.
#energysky
The rise of battery storage, and why the grid is rapidly passing gas!
reneweconomy.com.au/the-rise-of-...
Also: Nyuck Nyuck! youtu.be/FbjiKIKzY3c
But, seriously, folks: Gas is flaming out.
#energysky
The rise of battery storage, and why the grid is rapidly passing gas!
reneweconomy.com.au/the-rise-of-...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
This piece has *really* *really* *really* good charts.
h/t @profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
#energysky
h/t @profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
#energysky
Gas is being squeezed by renewables – every 30 minutes #energysky -- via Renew Economy:
Gas is being squeezed by renewables – every 30 minutes
Two new charts reveal distinct dynamics in Australia's main grids, highlighting the diminishing role of gas even in short-term operations.
reneweconomy.com.au
February 2, 2026 at 6:20 PM
This piece has *really* *really* *really* good charts.
h/t @profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
#energysky
h/t @profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
#energysky