Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Pinned
Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Intro 🧵
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
February 11, 2026 at 2:26 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Hello #energysky.
This PV mag piece asserts that "[grid forming] systems cost 10% to 15% more than standard storage, but that price gap is disappearing", evidently from Woods Mackenzie.
Can anyone corroborate that? Other data?
Thanks in advance.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/f...
This PV mag piece asserts that "[grid forming] systems cost 10% to 15% more than standard storage, but that price gap is disappearing", evidently from Woods Mackenzie.
Can anyone corroborate that? Other data?
Thanks in advance.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/f...
Five trends for energy storage as global market passes 100 GW
A report from Wood Mackenzie identifies five key trends that will define the energy storage industry in 2026, including supply chain restructuring and the rise of non-lithium batteries.
pv-magazine-usa.com
February 10, 2026 at 10:36 PM
Hello #energysky.
This PV mag piece asserts that "[grid forming] systems cost 10% to 15% more than standard storage, but that price gap is disappearing", evidently from Woods Mackenzie.
Can anyone corroborate that? Other data?
Thanks in advance.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/f...
This PV mag piece asserts that "[grid forming] systems cost 10% to 15% more than standard storage, but that price gap is disappearing", evidently from Woods Mackenzie.
Can anyone corroborate that? Other data?
Thanks in advance.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/f...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
In a paper published in @nature.com, a team of @uofwa.uw.edu #UWAllen and @ai2.bsky.social researchers unveiled OpenScholar, an #AI system that can cite scientific papers as accurately as human experts and incorporate new research after training. #UWdiscovers
www.washington.edu/news/2026/02...
www.washington.edu/news/2026/02...
In a study, AI model OpenScholar synthesizes scientific research and cites sources as accurately as human experts
A UW and Ai2 research team built OpenScholar, an open-source AI model designed specifically to synthesize current scientific research. In tests, OpenScholar cited sources as accurately as human...
www.washington.edu
February 10, 2026 at 8:29 PM
In a paper published in @nature.com, a team of @uofwa.uw.edu #UWAllen and @ai2.bsky.social researchers unveiled OpenScholar, an #AI system that can cite scientific papers as accurately as human experts and incorporate new research after training. #UWdiscovers
www.washington.edu/news/2026/02...
www.washington.edu/news/2026/02...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
The Sun Has Won, Part 1: Market Inevitabilities In Electricity Production (2022)
"The marginal cost of electricity production by PV and wind is zero. To produce ongoing value at fossil-fueled electricity plants requires the constant incineration of capital."
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/the-su...
"The marginal cost of electricity production by PV and wind is zero. To produce ongoing value at fossil-fueled electricity plants requires the constant incineration of capital."
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/the-su...
Planetary Technologies is an investment fund with the mission to find scalable technologies that can help the world mature beyond fossil fuels at the pace necessary to avoid unsustainable warming. Pla...
Today we publish the first in depth Research Report from Planetary Technologies. Here is the PDF: “ The Sun Has Won, Part 1: Market Inevitabilities In Electricity Production ”, by Rob Carlson , Mana...
www.planetarytech.earth
February 10, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Terrific news from Fervo Energy yesterday actually, drilled in under 11 days, the vertical appraisal well into 555F rocks marks the hottest well drilled in company history, further de-risking and expanding Fervo’s pipeline of enhanced geothermal projects.
fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy...
fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy...
Fervo Energy Drills Hottest Well to Date at New Giga-Scale Geothermal Project Site - Fervo Energy
HOUSTON, TX (February 9, 2026) – Fervo Energy, a leader in next-generation geothermal development, has announced the successful completion of an appraisal
fervoenergy.com
February 10, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Terrific news from Fervo Energy yesterday actually, drilled in under 11 days, the vertical appraisal well into 555F rocks marks the hottest well drilled in company history, further de-risking and expanding Fervo’s pipeline of enhanced geothermal projects.
fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy...
fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
February 10, 2026 at 2:25 AM
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
Someone was impatient for me to open up the blinds this morning to let the sun in.
February 10, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Someone was impatient for me to open up the blinds this morning to let the sun in.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
I tried to take a photo of a grasshopper on my windshield, but now it looks like a gigantic bug destroying the town.
February 10, 2026 at 6:10 AM
I tried to take a photo of a grasshopper on my windshield, but now it looks like a gigantic bug destroying the town.
Geothermal is ALREADY cost-competitive with fossil fuels in Europe.
Around 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the EU could be developed below €100/MWh today - compared to coal and gas prices fluctuating between €90–€150/MWh.
ember-energy.org/lat...
Around 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the EU could be developed below €100/MWh today - compared to coal and gas prices fluctuating between €90–€150/MWh.
ember-energy.org/lat...
February 10, 2026 at 7:15 AM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Theres ample evidence that the ability to love evolved deep in the animal family tree.
February 10, 2026 at 6:09 AM
Theres ample evidence that the ability to love evolved deep in the animal family tree.
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
February 10, 2026 at 2:25 AM
“Because Puerto Rico is a colony, its citizens cannot vote in presidential elections, but it is still affected by the U.S. government.”
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
First read this as “is still afflicted by the U.S. government”.
And, well.
Reboosting this from @planetaryops.bsky.social portfolio company @lumenbio.bsky.social , because it is so damn cool.
LMN-201 is composed of three antibodies and a lysin, making it the most complex biologic yet used in humans.
LMN-201 is composed of three antibodies and a lysin, making it the most complex biologic yet used in humans.
Promising news for C. diff patients! 100% of patients with LMN-201 + antibiotics successfully resolved their primary infection, and 95% of participants had no recurrence within 28 days (RePreve Trial sentinel cohort results). www.lumen.bio/2025/04/02/l...
#MedSky
#MedSky
LMN-201 Achieves 100% Initial C. difficile Clinical Cure in Preliminary Cohort of RePreve Trial - Lumen Bioscience
Strong potential to disrupt market for treatment of C. diff infections RePreve Trial main cohort now recruiting Seattle, WA – April 3, 2025 – In a landmark achievement for its pioneering spirulina-bas...
www.lumen.bio
February 10, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Reboosting this from @planetaryops.bsky.social portfolio company @lumenbio.bsky.social , because it is so damn cool.
LMN-201 is composed of three antibodies and a lysin, making it the most complex biologic yet used in humans.
LMN-201 is composed of three antibodies and a lysin, making it the most complex biologic yet used in humans.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
This is a great story.
#ecovoltaics #naturalsecurity 🔌💡
Makes me wonder about working the bats into the business model.
Subscription bats?
B/c bats pollinate ~40% of food crops, provide 10's of $B in insect control services to US farmers, and save human lives by obviating the use of pesticides.
#ecovoltaics #naturalsecurity 🔌💡
Makes me wonder about working the bats into the business model.
Subscription bats?
B/c bats pollinate ~40% of food crops, provide 10's of $B in insect control services to US farmers, and save human lives by obviating the use of pesticides.
Research finds solar can support bird, bat activities #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: pv-magazine-usa.com/...
December 10, 2025 at 8:41 PM
This is a great story.
#ecovoltaics #naturalsecurity 🔌💡
Makes me wonder about working the bats into the business model.
Subscription bats?
B/c bats pollinate ~40% of food crops, provide 10's of $B in insect control services to US farmers, and save human lives by obviating the use of pesticides.
#ecovoltaics #naturalsecurity 🔌💡
Makes me wonder about working the bats into the business model.
Subscription bats?
B/c bats pollinate ~40% of food crops, provide 10's of $B in insect control services to US farmers, and save human lives by obviating the use of pesticides.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A slide from a talk I gave last fall at the Hoover Institution:
The U.S. has, of course, now abandoned the effort to build up a baseline knowledge base of the economic value the services provided by bats, bees, trees, and everything else people imagine are free.
The U.S. has, of course, now abandoned the effort to build up a baseline knowledge base of the economic value the services provided by bats, bees, trees, and everything else people imagine are free.
December 10, 2025 at 8:41 PM
This makes the conservative economic value of clean air $1T annually in the U.S.
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
Air pollution from burning fossil fuels causes 100,000 to 200,000 avoidable American deaths per year. At the EPA's statistical value of life of $10 million, these deaths cost America $1 to $2 trillion per year, every year. These costs far outweigh the costs of transitioning off of fossil fuels.
Air pollution deaths attributable to fossil fuels: observational and modelling study
Objectives To estimate all cause and cause specific deaths that are attributable to fossil fuel related air pollution and to assess potential health benefits from policies that replace fossil fuels wi...
www.bmj.com
February 9, 2026 at 8:44 PM
This makes the conservative economic value of clean air $1T annually in the U.S.
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A chance to learn from the best in the business.
The Economist is hiring an intern to spend three months in London writing about science and technology. Apply by March 6th
The Economist’s science and technology internship
We invite applications for the 2026 Richard Casement internship
econ.st
February 5, 2026 at 4:35 PM
A chance to learn from the best in the business.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
February 3, 2026 at 10:55 PM
On 1 February 2026, batteries in CAISO never reached zero discharge rate while the sun was down, displacing gas and imports in California and supplying renewable electricity all night long.
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
#energysky
www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Related:
#CAISO now regularly exports electricity during daylight hours. Net electricity imports have fallen ~60% over the last 5 years. h/t @gridstatus.io
🔌💡
blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-solar-...
#CAISO now regularly exports electricity during daylight hours. Net electricity imports have fallen ~60% over the last 5 years. h/t @gridstatus.io
🔌💡
blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-solar-...
February 6, 2026 at 7:52 PM
Related:
#CAISO now regularly exports electricity during daylight hours. Net electricity imports have fallen ~60% over the last 5 years. h/t @gridstatus.io
🔌💡
blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-solar-...
#CAISO now regularly exports electricity during daylight hours. Net electricity imports have fallen ~60% over the last 5 years. h/t @gridstatus.io
🔌💡
blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-solar-...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
“So on solar, we are seeing no change, if anything, an acceleration, and we’re trying to pull projects forward as fast as possible. On wind, onshore wind, there has been some slowdown in permitting from the federal government, but projects are still getting done.”
🔌💡
🔌💡
February 8, 2026 at 9:19 PM
“So on solar, we are seeing no change, if anything, an acceleration, and we’re trying to pull projects forward as fast as possible. On wind, onshore wind, there has been some slowdown in permitting from the federal government, but projects are still getting done.”
🔌💡
🔌💡
Reposted by Rob Carlson
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
Battery prices plunge 60 pct in two years, changing face of grid and the nature of contracts
Battery storage major says costs have fallen 60 pct in two years, helping redefine the grid and customer needs, and along with solar is cheapest and easiest to build.
reneweconomy.com.au
February 8, 2026 at 9:16 PM
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
Now everyone is singing a “let’s go victory!” sort of thing in Afar or Ahmaric that I can’t understand, which is icing on the cake.
I’m not the biggest American football fan, and I am watching the #Superbowl in a neighborhood Ethiopian restaurant in Seattle.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
February 9, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Now everyone is singing a “let’s go victory!” sort of thing in Afar or Ahmaric that I can’t understand, which is icing on the cake.
I’m not the biggest American football fan, and I am watching the #Superbowl in a neighborhood Ethiopian restaurant in Seattle.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
February 9, 2026 at 2:12 AM
I’m not the biggest American football fan, and I am watching the #Superbowl in a neighborhood Ethiopian restaurant in Seattle.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
All the immigrants, 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen fans in the place are wearing #Seahawks kit and are going nuts. Best FU to the orange turd I can think of.
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
Battery prices plunge 60 pct in two years, changing face of grid and the nature of contracts
Battery storage major says costs have fallen 60 pct in two years, helping redefine the grid and customer needs, and along with solar is cheapest and easiest to build.
reneweconomy.com.au
February 8, 2026 at 9:16 PM
CEO of Brookfield Renewable Partners says there is “no slowdown” in the deployment of solar and battery storage in the US. "We are seeing an acceleration. And this is driven by solar...it is quick to deploy, it’s cheap, it’s the lowest cost form of production."
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...
🔌💡
reneweconomy.com.au/battery-pric...