Dave Osmond
@davidosmond.bsky.social
Weekly renewable simulation of Australia's NEM
Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling
Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling
Pinned
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 221 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 221 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
November 20, 2025 at 5:31 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 221 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 221 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Dave Osmond
Factchecking five Coalition claims about net zero, from power prices to the $9tn cost
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Factchecking five Coalition claims about net zero, from power prices to the $9tn cost
As Liberals join Nationals in abandoning a 2050 emissions target, we unpick some of the opposition’s talking points
www.theguardian.com
November 16, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Factchecking five Coalition claims about net zero, from power prices to the $9tn cost
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Reposted by Dave Osmond
When the #ParisAgreement was signed, a huge global boom in coal was happening, threatening 4 degrees of warming.
10 years later, and coal's generation increased by the FOURTH most.
Solar #1, wind #2 💪💪💪
10 years later, and coal's generation increased by the FOURTH most.
Solar #1, wind #2 💪💪💪
NEW | The world has achieved nearly a tenfold increase in solar power in the ten years since the #ParisAgreement ☀️
Solar rose from providing 1% of global electricity in 2015 to 8.8% in the first half of 2025.
Emerging economies now lead this growth 📈
https://loom.ly/tlCvBso
Solar rose from providing 1% of global electricity in 2015 to 8.8% in the first half of 2025.
Emerging economies now lead this growth 📈
https://loom.ly/tlCvBso
November 14, 2025 at 1:58 PM
When the #ParisAgreement was signed, a huge global boom in coal was happening, threatening 4 degrees of warming.
10 years later, and coal's generation increased by the FOURTH most.
Solar #1, wind #2 💪💪💪
10 years later, and coal's generation increased by the FOURTH most.
Solar #1, wind #2 💪💪💪
Reposted by Dave Osmond
Hi Milly, SA had the highest prices in the country back in 2010, before renewables became significant. High wholesale prices made it an attractive market for renewables.
It had high prices due to lack of cheap coal, peaky demand & lots of poles per customer. threadreaderapp.com/thread/16688...
It had high prices due to lack of cheap coal, peaky demand & lots of poles per customer. threadreaderapp.com/thread/16688...
Thread by @DavidOsmond8 on Thread Reader App
@DavidOsmond8: A thread on why Sth Australia has the most expensive electricity on Australia’s NEM. Short answer: because it has a very ‘peaky’ demand, driven by high electricity use in summer heatwav...
threadreaderapp.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Hi Milly, SA had the highest prices in the country back in 2010, before renewables became significant. High wholesale prices made it an attractive market for renewables.
It had high prices due to lack of cheap coal, peaky demand & lots of poles per customer. threadreaderapp.com/thread/16688...
It had high prices due to lack of cheap coal, peaky demand & lots of poles per customer. threadreaderapp.com/thread/16688...
Love this chart from Ember via @reneweconomy.com.au
Shows that the growth in solar and wind generation is finally starting to exceed the growth in demand, so that fossil generation is declining.
That is true in both China & India, as well as globally.
Shows that the growth in solar and wind generation is finally starting to exceed the growth in demand, so that fossil generation is declining.
That is true in both China & India, as well as globally.
November 13, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Love this chart from Ember via @reneweconomy.com.au
Shows that the growth in solar and wind generation is finally starting to exceed the growth in demand, so that fossil generation is declining.
That is true in both China & India, as well as globally.
Shows that the growth in solar and wind generation is finally starting to exceed the growth in demand, so that fossil generation is declining.
That is true in both China & India, as well as globally.
Reposted by Dave Osmond
A Clear Air column today. It's a pretty long one. Could have been longer.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
The spectacular nonsense of the Coalition’s internal brawl over the 2050 net zero emissions target | Clear air
The public stoush is really about whether the party will drop the charade or maintain it while shuffling some words
www.theguardian.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 PM
A Clear Air column today. It's a pretty long one. Could have been longer.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
November 12, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 220 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 219 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 219 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
November 5, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 219 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 219 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Australian Electricity Emission Intensity Update:
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 529 kg CO2-e/MWh
(down 26% in 5-yrs, down 37% in 10-yrs)
Sth Australia leading the way reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation.
Down 30% in 5-yrs, 66% in 10-yrs)
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 529 kg CO2-e/MWh
(down 26% in 5-yrs, down 37% in 10-yrs)
Sth Australia leading the way reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation.
Down 30% in 5-yrs, 66% in 10-yrs)
November 2, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Australian Electricity Emission Intensity Update:
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 529 kg CO2-e/MWh
(down 26% in 5-yrs, down 37% in 10-yrs)
Sth Australia leading the way reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation.
Down 30% in 5-yrs, 66% in 10-yrs)
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 529 kg CO2-e/MWh
(down 26% in 5-yrs, down 37% in 10-yrs)
Sth Australia leading the way reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation.
Down 30% in 5-yrs, 66% in 10-yrs)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 218 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 218 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
October 29, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 218 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 218 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 217 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 217 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
October 22, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 217 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 217 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Dave Osmond
Time for 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of November 2025.
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon
www.worldscientific.com
October 20, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Time for 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of November 2025.
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
Reposted by Dave Osmond
BREAKING! 🧵(1 of 3) Rainforest Reserves Australia used to be a legit NGO in the Queensland Wet Tropics. They fought off a windfarm near a national park, but then were turned into an anti-RE propaganda source for Sky, Advance & the fossil
#AtlasNetwork
www.rainforestreserves.org.au/media-releas...
#AtlasNetwork
www.rainforestreserves.org.au/media-releas...
Media Release: Chalumbin/ Wooroora Station wind farm withdrawn — Rainforest Reserves Australia
www.rainforestreserves.org.au
October 18, 2025 at 2:09 AM
BREAKING! 🧵(1 of 3) Rainforest Reserves Australia used to be a legit NGO in the Queensland Wet Tropics. They fought off a windfarm near a national park, but then were turned into an anti-RE propaganda source for Sky, Advance & the fossil
#AtlasNetwork
www.rainforestreserves.org.au/media-releas...
#AtlasNetwork
www.rainforestreserves.org.au/media-releas...
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 216 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 216 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
October 15, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 216 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 216 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Dave Osmond
"Back in January 2011, Santos's then-chief executive David Knox announced that the company would lead a consortium to build a massive LNG export facility on Curtis Island, just off the Queensland coast near Gladstone," Verrender, who gets it all pretty right.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
How a boardroom mistake in Adelaide 15 years ago cost you a fortune
It was a primary force behind Australia’s inflationary surge, it’s forced businesses either to the wall or to shift offshore, undermined national industry policy and resulted in the loss of countless ...
www.abc.net.au
October 14, 2025 at 9:16 AM
"Back in January 2011, Santos's then-chief executive David Knox announced that the company would lead a consortium to build a massive LNG export facility on Curtis Island, just off the Queensland coast near Gladstone," Verrender, who gets it all pretty right.
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
Excellent report from the Grattan Institute recommending a modifed Safeguard mechanism be applied to electricity.
Related to this, it's worth noting that ACCUs are currently trading for $38 while just $11 for LGCs. I'd argue that LGCs offer better quality carbon offset for less than 1/3 price
/1
Related to this, it's worth noting that ACCUs are currently trading for $38 while just $11 for LGCs. I'd argue that LGCs offer better quality carbon offset for less than 1/3 price
/1
💡 Cheaper energy bills AND reduced emissions?
Our new report finds that Australian household energy bills are set to halve by 2050, leaving room for the federal gov't to cut emissions in the electricity sector without hurting households.
Here’s how: buff.ly/9UPN4ub
Our new report finds that Australian household energy bills are set to halve by 2050, leaving room for the federal gov't to cut emissions in the electricity sector without hurting households.
Here’s how: buff.ly/9UPN4ub
October 14, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Excellent report from the Grattan Institute recommending a modifed Safeguard mechanism be applied to electricity.
Related to this, it's worth noting that ACCUs are currently trading for $38 while just $11 for LGCs. I'd argue that LGCs offer better quality carbon offset for less than 1/3 price
/1
Related to this, it's worth noting that ACCUs are currently trading for $38 while just $11 for LGCs. I'd argue that LGCs offer better quality carbon offset for less than 1/3 price
/1
Reposted by Dave Osmond
Imagine kicking the former national rugby captain out of your sports club instead of the gambling lobby.
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, who'd want to belong to a club that would accept Responsible Wagering Australia as one of its sponsors?
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, who'd want to belong to a club that would accept Responsible Wagering Australia as one of its sponsors?
Making his point for him -- just asking about the power of the gambling lobby gets Senator David Pocock booted from sports club the Prime Minister heads. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Former Wallabies star David Pocock booted from parliamentary sports club
Exclusive: Senator accused of bringing social club into disrepute after raising concerns about its association with betting lobby
www.theguardian.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Imagine kicking the former national rugby captain out of your sports club instead of the gambling lobby.
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, who'd want to belong to a club that would accept Responsible Wagering Australia as one of its sponsors?
To paraphrase Groucho Marx, who'd want to belong to a club that would accept Responsible Wagering Australia as one of its sponsors?
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 215 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 215 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
October 8, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 215 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 215 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Dave Osmond
1/2 "everyone from News Corp to the Atlas Network, to Advance, to CPAC, to Gina Rinehart are busting a foofer valve—and spending a great deal of money—making the case for the takeover"
It’s the process, says @timdunlop.bsky.social, not Andrew Hastie per se.
tdunlop.substack.com/p/i-suppose-...
It’s the process, says @timdunlop.bsky.social, not Andrew Hastie per se.
tdunlop.substack.com/p/i-suppose-...
I suppose we have to think about Andrew Hastie now, sigh
Okay, but let's be clear on what the real problem is
tdunlop.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 5:38 AM
1/2 "everyone from News Corp to the Atlas Network, to Advance, to CPAC, to Gina Rinehart are busting a foofer valve—and spending a great deal of money—making the case for the takeover"
It’s the process, says @timdunlop.bsky.social, not Andrew Hastie per se.
tdunlop.substack.com/p/i-suppose-...
It’s the process, says @timdunlop.bsky.social, not Andrew Hastie per se.
tdunlop.substack.com/p/i-suppose-...
The cost of the ACT 100% renewable target dropped to just $3/MWh in the June quarter of 2025.
The cost of the scheme is negatively correlated to the wholesale electricity price, providing ACT consumers a valuable shield against volatile electricty prices.
/1
The cost of the scheme is negatively correlated to the wholesale electricity price, providing ACT consumers a valuable shield against volatile electricty prices.
/1
October 3, 2025 at 3:32 AM
The cost of the ACT 100% renewable target dropped to just $3/MWh in the June quarter of 2025.
The cost of the scheme is negatively correlated to the wholesale electricity price, providing ACT consumers a valuable shield against volatile electricty prices.
/1
The cost of the scheme is negatively correlated to the wholesale electricity price, providing ACT consumers a valuable shield against volatile electricty prices.
/1
Electricity Emission Intensity steadily reducing on Australia's NEM thanks to the growth of wind and solar displacing fossil generation.
Sth Australia leading the way in reductions, down 29% over the last 5-years, down 66% over the last 10-years.
Sth Australia leading the way in reductions, down 29% over the last 5-years, down 66% over the last 10-years.
October 3, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Electricity Emission Intensity steadily reducing on Australia's NEM thanks to the growth of wind and solar displacing fossil generation.
Sth Australia leading the way in reductions, down 29% over the last 5-years, down 66% over the last 10-years.
Sth Australia leading the way in reductions, down 29% over the last 5-years, down 66% over the last 10-years.
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 214 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 214 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
October 1, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 214 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 214 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Dave Osmond
It's important to call this stuff out.
September 30, 2025 at 6:15 AM
It's important to call this stuff out.
Several really cool announcements over the last few days indicating that Australia's big mines are going renewable!
Links in the following thread
Links in the following thread
September 26, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Several really cool announcements over the last few days indicating that Australia's big mines are going renewable!
Links in the following thread
Links in the following thread
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 213 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 213 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
September 25, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 213 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 213 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)