Simon Gleave
@simongleave.bsky.social
Head of Analysis at Gracenote | Fan of sport, particularly Rugby, Football, Cricket | Cambridge, Palace & Utrecht | Love Film&Music | My views are my own
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Simon Gleave
@simongleave.bsky.social
· Dec 22
Simon's 2025 Festive Fifty
open.spotify.com
My annual Festive Fifty playlist of my favourite tracks of the year.
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
It wasn't enough for PSG or Newcastle, and it wouldn't have been for Tottenham either.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Even if the prediction is being made when the games are already being played!!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Even if the prediction is being made when the games are already being played!!
just as we said on the @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social preview pods, a draw should be enough for Spurs, PSG and Newcastle
January 29, 2026 at 2:56 PM
It wasn't enough for PSG or Newcastle, and it wouldn't have been for Tottenham either.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Even if the prediction is being made when the games are already being played!!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Even if the prediction is being made when the games are already being played!!
Reposted by Simon Gleave
It is the release day for Attacking the Space!!
If you haven't pre-ordered you can now pick-up a copy in your local bookshop.
If you haven't pre-ordered you can now pick-up a copy in your local bookshop.
January 29, 2026 at 9:43 AM
It is the release day for Attacking the Space!!
If you haven't pre-ordered you can now pick-up a copy in your local bookshop.
If you haven't pre-ordered you can now pick-up a copy in your local bookshop.
This is in the shops tomorrow.
I am mentioned in it.
Buy it.
I am mentioned in it.
Buy it.
This Thursday (29th Jan) is launch day for Attacking the Space!!
Wondering if it's for you? It's been described as:
'Well written, insightful and thought-provoking' by the Guardian
'an invaluable book - a brilliant resources for anyone interested in rugby' by Bernard Jackman
Wondering if it's for you? It's been described as:
'Well written, insightful and thought-provoking' by the Guardian
'an invaluable book - a brilliant resources for anyone interested in rugby' by Bernard Jackman
January 28, 2026 at 4:52 PM
This is in the shops tomorrow.
I am mentioned in it.
Buy it.
I am mentioned in it.
Buy it.
Applying reasonable probabilities/betting odds to each competition implies a 2% chance of the quadruple which shows how hard it is.
▪️ 7 points clear at top of Premier League.
▪️Top of the Champions League and into UCL last-16 as a top-two seed.
▪️ 3-2 up in League Cup semi-final.
▪️ 4th round of FA Cup.
▪️Top of the Champions League and into UCL last-16 as a top-two seed.
▪️ 3-2 up in League Cup semi-final.
▪️ 4th round of FA Cup.
January 21, 2026 at 9:28 AM
Applying reasonable probabilities/betting odds to each competition implies a 2% chance of the quadruple which shows how hard it is.
Maybe I am missing something but I'd have thought that it is also worth saying that Arsenal are guaranteed to finish 1st or 2nd, which means a theoretically easier last-16 match than other direct qualifiers.
Following Man City's loss, Arsenal are now guaranteed a top eight finish in the League Phase table, avoiding the play-off round & directly advancing to the round-of-16.
January 21, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Maybe I am missing something but I'd have thought that it is also worth saying that Arsenal are guaranteed to finish 1st or 2nd, which means a theoretically easier last-16 match than other direct qualifiers.
1 win - against Inter or Kairat - guarantees Arsenal 1st or 2nd place (probably 1st).
This means a last-16 fixture against a team finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the league phase (currently Barcelona, Marseille, Juventus, Galatasaray but likely to change a lot from that).
#INTARS
This means a last-16 fixture against a team finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the league phase (currently Barcelona, Marseille, Juventus, Galatasaray but likely to change a lot from that).
#INTARS
Arsenal have 18 points. Only nine teams can get 18 points or more, so direct qualification for the Last 16 is pretty much certain.
#INTARS
#INTARS
January 20, 2026 at 10:18 AM
1 win - against Inter or Kairat - guarantees Arsenal 1st or 2nd place (probably 1st).
This means a last-16 fixture against a team finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the league phase (currently Barcelona, Marseille, Juventus, Galatasaray but likely to change a lot from that).
#INTARS
This means a last-16 fixture against a team finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the league phase (currently Barcelona, Marseille, Juventus, Galatasaray but likely to change a lot from that).
#INTARS
You'd think that they purposely say these things knowing very well what they mean BUT my experience of some people back in the day implies that they really might believe this and not understand these things AT ALL.
Which is more worrying.
Which is more worrying.
January 12, 2026 at 2:52 PM
You'd think that they purposely say these things knowing very well what they mean BUT my experience of some people back in the day implies that they really might believe this and not understand these things AT ALL.
Which is more worrying.
Which is more worrying.
My annual Festive Fifty playlist of my favourite tracks of the year.
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
Simon's 2025 Festive Fifty
open.spotify.com
December 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
My annual Festive Fifty playlist of my favourite tracks of the year.
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
The rules:
1. 50 different songs
2. Must have been released as a single in 2025 or on the tracklist of an album released in the past 12 months.
3. Max. 1 track per artist
open.spotify.com/playlist/4vV...
It seems reasonable to expect one to two of the #RWC2027 groups to NOT finish in seeded order in the top two places.
So, all of these assumptions about how it is going to play out seem rather premature, not least as there are nearly two years to go before it starts.
Same goes for 2nd/3rd.
So, all of these assumptions about how it is going to play out seem rather premature, not least as there are nearly two years to go before it starts.
Same goes for 2nd/3rd.
December 3, 2025 at 12:41 PM
It seems reasonable to expect one to two of the #RWC2027 groups to NOT finish in seeded order in the top two places.
So, all of these assumptions about how it is going to play out seem rather premature, not least as there are nearly two years to go before it starts.
Same goes for 2nd/3rd.
So, all of these assumptions about how it is going to play out seem rather premature, not least as there are nearly two years to go before it starts.
Same goes for 2nd/3rd.
Australia - New Zealand is -5.80 with home advantage accounted for so that makes it into the top five closest matches (at this point).
A 1 point gap in the world ranking points is worth approximately 2 points on the field in theory.
A 1 point gap in the world ranking points is worth approximately 2 points on the field in theory.
The smallest ranking point gaps in the groups (with seedlings) are:
E (4) Samoa -1.83 v (3) USA
C (2) Fiji -3.83 v (1) Argentina
D (4) Portugal -4.21 v (3) Uruguay
B (3) Georgia -5.8 v (2) Italy
E (3) USA -5.83 v (2) Japan
A (4) Hong Kong -7.11 v (3) Chile
E (4) Samoa -1.83 v (3) USA
C (2) Fiji -3.83 v (1) Argentina
D (4) Portugal -4.21 v (3) Uruguay
B (3) Georgia -5.8 v (2) Italy
E (3) USA -5.83 v (2) Japan
A (4) Hong Kong -7.11 v (3) Chile
December 3, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Australia - New Zealand is -5.80 with home advantage accounted for so that makes it into the top five closest matches (at this point).
A 1 point gap in the world ranking points is worth approximately 2 points on the field in theory.
A 1 point gap in the world ranking points is worth approximately 2 points on the field in theory.
Highly unlikely that there will be only one SH team in the semi-finals of a SH-hosted tournament.
Mind you the fact that one of the QFs will almost certainly be between two SH teams does increase that possibility.
Mind you the fact that one of the QFs will almost certainly be between two SH teams does increase that possibility.
December 3, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Highly unlikely that there will be only one SH team in the semi-finals of a SH-hosted tournament.
Mind you the fact that one of the QFs will almost certainly be between two SH teams does increase that possibility.
Mind you the fact that one of the QFs will almost certainly be between two SH teams does increase that possibility.
Reposted by Simon Gleave
You know, I was going to make a 52/48 cursed ratio joke here.
But take out the undecideds?
It's 53%/47%.
You can't even make this stuff up.
But take out the undecideds?
It's 53%/47%.
You can't even make this stuff up.
British public’s verdict is in: Die Hard is not a Christmas movie
British public’s verdict is in: Die Hard is not a Christmas movie
Survey also reveals Britons’ favourite festive film, views on tear-jerkers and family cinema trips
When Macaulay Culkin recently said he didn’t consider Die Hard to be a Christmas film – wading into one of pop culture’s most heated holiday debates – he was booed by a live audience.
But it looks like the British people are behind the actor, with a survey revealing that Home Alone is the UK’s favourite festive film, while Die Hard has officially been voted not a Christmas movie. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 2, 2025 at 10:10 AM
You know, I was going to make a 52/48 cursed ratio joke here.
But take out the undecideds?
It's 53%/47%.
You can't even make this stuff up.
But take out the undecideds?
It's 53%/47%.
You can't even make this stuff up.
Scotland COULD have beaten Argentina by 21 points.
In fact it was more realistic than 'could have beaten the All Blacks by 20 points'.
They didn't.
They lost.
In fact it was more realistic than 'could have beaten the All Blacks by 20 points'.
They didn't.
They lost.
November 28, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Scotland COULD have beaten Argentina by 21 points.
In fact it was more realistic than 'could have beaten the All Blacks by 20 points'.
They didn't.
They lost.
In fact it was more realistic than 'could have beaten the All Blacks by 20 points'.
They didn't.
They lost.
Reposted by Simon Gleave
Curaçao qualified for the World Cup. Most of their players were born in The Netherlands. Unlike the Netherlands World Baseball Classic team, most of whom were from Curaçao.
November 19, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Curaçao qualified for the World Cup. Most of their players were born in The Netherlands. Unlike the Netherlands World Baseball Classic team, most of whom were from Curaçao.
English media call it the Pom Squad so I don't see a problem here.
World Rugbyneeds to ban pundits using the term Bomb Sqd UNLESS the starting pack & substitutes are the two best packs in world rugby.
England do not have a bomb sqd.
NZ do not have a bomb Sqd
France, Ireland & Scotland DONOT HAVE A BOMB SQD
#ENGvNZL
England do not have a bomb sqd.
NZ do not have a bomb Sqd
France, Ireland & Scotland DONOT HAVE A BOMB SQD
#ENGvNZL
November 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
English media call it the Pom Squad so I don't see a problem here.
I have been informed by @elbakan.bsky.social who was kind enough to share his tickets with me for the first three on this list that they were Category 1 tickets. Just checking with him on the cost.
In any case, I could afford to go to the World Cup then. I couldn't now.
In any case, I could afford to go to the World Cup then. I couldn't now.
I was fortunate enough to go to the 1994 World Cup in the U.S.
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
FIFA tightly guarded 2026 World Cup ticket prices.
Now, The Athletic reveals costs for each game, at each venue, at every stage of the tournament.
Now, The Athletic reveals costs for each game, at each venue, at every stage of the tournament.
November 27, 2025 at 9:11 AM
I have been informed by @elbakan.bsky.social who was kind enough to share his tickets with me for the first three on this list that they were Category 1 tickets. Just checking with him on the cost.
In any case, I could afford to go to the World Cup then. I couldn't now.
In any case, I could afford to go to the World Cup then. I couldn't now.
I was fortunate enough to go to the 1994 World Cup in the U.S.
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
FIFA tightly guarded 2026 World Cup ticket prices.
Now, The Athletic reveals costs for each game, at each venue, at every stage of the tournament.
Now, The Athletic reveals costs for each game, at each venue, at every stage of the tournament.
November 26, 2025 at 12:33 PM
I was fortunate enough to go to the 1994 World Cup in the U.S.
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended:
Italy v Mexico
Saudi Arabia v Belgium
Spain v Switzerland
Brazil v Netherlands
The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)
Tonight there is a #ChampionsLeague match between the top two teams in the world - Arsenal and Bayern Munich.
Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid.
www.euroclubindex.com
Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid.
www.euroclubindex.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Tonight there is a #ChampionsLeague match between the top two teams in the world - Arsenal and Bayern Munich.
Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid.
www.euroclubindex.com
Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid.
www.euroclubindex.com
England's Grand Slam of Autumn International victims (rankings at the beginning of the AIs):
England (world ranked 5) beat
Australia (7)
Fiji (9)
New Zealand (2)
Argentina (6)
2016s Grand Slam (England (2) was
South Africa (4)
Fiji (10)
Argentina (9)
Australia (3)
This year's was better?
England (world ranked 5) beat
Australia (7)
Fiji (9)
New Zealand (2)
Argentina (6)
2016s Grand Slam (England (2) was
South Africa (4)
Fiji (10)
Argentina (9)
Australia (3)
This year's was better?
November 24, 2025 at 9:05 AM
England's Grand Slam of Autumn International victims (rankings at the beginning of the AIs):
England (world ranked 5) beat
Australia (7)
Fiji (9)
New Zealand (2)
Argentina (6)
2016s Grand Slam (England (2) was
South Africa (4)
Fiji (10)
Argentina (9)
Australia (3)
This year's was better?
England (world ranked 5) beat
Australia (7)
Fiji (9)
New Zealand (2)
Argentina (6)
2016s Grand Slam (England (2) was
South Africa (4)
Fiji (10)
Argentina (9)
Australia (3)
This year's was better?
World Cup playoffs UEFA
A
Italy (FIFA rank 12) v Northern Ireland (69)
Wales (32) v Bosnia & Herzegovina (71)
B
Ukraine (28) v Sweden (43)
Poland (31) v Albania (63)
C
Türkiye (25) v Romania (47)
Slovakia (45) v Kosovo (80)
D
Denmark (21) v North Macedonia (65)
Czech Rep (44) v Ireland (59)
A
Italy (FIFA rank 12) v Northern Ireland (69)
Wales (32) v Bosnia & Herzegovina (71)
B
Ukraine (28) v Sweden (43)
Poland (31) v Albania (63)
C
Türkiye (25) v Romania (47)
Slovakia (45) v Kosovo (80)
D
Denmark (21) v North Macedonia (65)
Czech Rep (44) v Ireland (59)
November 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
World Cup playoffs UEFA
A
Italy (FIFA rank 12) v Northern Ireland (69)
Wales (32) v Bosnia & Herzegovina (71)
B
Ukraine (28) v Sweden (43)
Poland (31) v Albania (63)
C
Türkiye (25) v Romania (47)
Slovakia (45) v Kosovo (80)
D
Denmark (21) v North Macedonia (65)
Czech Rep (44) v Ireland (59)
A
Italy (FIFA rank 12) v Northern Ireland (69)
Wales (32) v Bosnia & Herzegovina (71)
B
Ukraine (28) v Sweden (43)
Poland (31) v Albania (63)
C
Türkiye (25) v Romania (47)
Slovakia (45) v Kosovo (80)
D
Denmark (21) v North Macedonia (65)
Czech Rep (44) v Ireland (59)
67% of the UEFA qualifying groups had the exact 1-2 forecast by FIFA rankings.
The exceptions:
B: Kosovo 2nd above Sweden
C: Scotland 1st above Denmark, Denmark 2nd above Greece
F: Ireland 2nd above Hungary
H: Bosnia 2nd above Romania
I: Norway & Italy swapped places
K: Albania 2nd above Serbia
The exceptions:
B: Kosovo 2nd above Sweden
C: Scotland 1st above Denmark, Denmark 2nd above Greece
F: Ireland 2nd above Hungary
H: Bosnia 2nd above Romania
I: Norway & Italy swapped places
K: Albania 2nd above Serbia
November 19, 2025 at 9:57 AM
67% of the UEFA qualifying groups had the exact 1-2 forecast by FIFA rankings.
The exceptions:
B: Kosovo 2nd above Sweden
C: Scotland 1st above Denmark, Denmark 2nd above Greece
F: Ireland 2nd above Hungary
H: Bosnia 2nd above Romania
I: Norway & Italy swapped places
K: Albania 2nd above Serbia
The exceptions:
B: Kosovo 2nd above Sweden
C: Scotland 1st above Denmark, Denmark 2nd above Greece
F: Ireland 2nd above Hungary
H: Bosnia 2nd above Romania
I: Norway & Italy swapped places
K: Albania 2nd above Serbia
Based on this, Italy have only themselves to blame.
Italy were the ONLY one of the top-10 ranked European teams before qualifying began to fail to qualify directly.
They now have a 2nd chance in which the best team they can play against is Poland (ranked 31st in the new ranking, Italy now 12th)
Italy were the ONLY one of the top-10 ranked European teams before qualifying began to fail to qualify directly.
They now have a 2nd chance in which the best team they can play against is Poland (ranked 31st in the new ranking, Italy now 12th)
European teams, their FIFA ranking before qualification and their fate:
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
November 19, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Based on this, Italy have only themselves to blame.
Italy were the ONLY one of the top-10 ranked European teams before qualifying began to fail to qualify directly.
They now have a 2nd chance in which the best team they can play against is Poland (ranked 31st in the new ranking, Italy now 12th)
Italy were the ONLY one of the top-10 ranked European teams before qualifying began to fail to qualify directly.
They now have a 2nd chance in which the best team they can play against is Poland (ranked 31st in the new ranking, Italy now 12th)
European teams, their FIFA ranking before qualification and their fate:
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
November 19, 2025 at 9:06 AM
European teams, their FIFA ranking before qualification and their fate:
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
2 FRA✅
3 ESP✅
4 ENG✅
6 POR✅
7 NED✅
8 BEL✅
9 ITA P/O
10 GER✅
13 CRO✅
20 SUI✅
21 DEN P/O
22 AUT✅
25 UKR P/O
27 SWE P/O
28 TUR P/O
29 WAL P/O
30 HUN❌
32 SRB❌
35 POL P/O
38 ROU P/O
39 GRE❌
41 SVK P/O
42 CZE P/O
43 NOR✅
45 SCO✅
1/
If Austria and Denmark both win their groups this evening (both need a draw), the ONLY team in FIFA's current top-12 European teams that won't have qualified directly for next year's World Cup will be Italy.
Gattuso can moan about qualification being too hard but it was seeded for them to get there
Gattuso can moan about qualification being too hard but it was seeded for them to get there
November 18, 2025 at 5:41 PM
If Austria and Denmark both win their groups this evening (both need a draw), the ONLY team in FIFA's current top-12 European teams that won't have qualified directly for next year's World Cup will be Italy.
Gattuso can moan about qualification being too hard but it was seeded for them to get there
Gattuso can moan about qualification being too hard but it was seeded for them to get there