Simon Talbot
@talbotpaul.bsky.social
will you please stop talking about fight club
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Tony Blair gives Shabana Mahmood stamp of approval amid Labour leadership speculation www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
Tony Blair gives Shabana Mahmood stamp of approval amid Labour leadership speculation
The former prime minister praised the home secretary’s ‘radical’ style and ‘political philosophy’ behind her immigration crackdown, comparing it to his own approach in power
www.independent.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Tony Blair gives Shabana Mahmood stamp of approval amid Labour leadership speculation www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
December 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Reposted by Simon Talbot
The View from Westminster newsletter has gone out. Free sign-up here www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
December 11, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The View from Westminster newsletter has gone out. Free sign-up here www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Your past paper to practise for this year’s Wrong Answers End-of-Year Quiz, coming next week (questions from Tim Carter’s weekly online quiz to which the most popular answer was wrong, so tread carefully...)
December 11, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Your past paper to practise for this year’s Wrong Answers End-of-Year Quiz, coming next week (questions from Tim Carter’s weekly online quiz to which the most popular answer was wrong, so tread carefully...)
Reposted by Simon Talbot
#Top10 Interesting Numbers. From the archive, 10 years ago independent.co.uk/news/science...
December 11, 2025 at 9:12 PM
#Top10 Interesting Numbers. From the archive, 10 years ago independent.co.uk/news/science...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
PS
As Brian Bell (Chair of the MAC) is quoted as saying, the proposed new rules on settlement (apart from being xenophobic, mean-spirited, and contrary to what the vast majority of the public think is fair) are likely to do significant economic damage.
As Brian Bell (Chair of the MAC) is quoted as saying, the proposed new rules on settlement (apart from being xenophobic, mean-spirited, and contrary to what the vast majority of the public think is fair) are likely to do significant economic damage.
December 11, 2025 at 6:29 PM
PS
As Brian Bell (Chair of the MAC) is quoted as saying, the proposed new rules on settlement (apart from being xenophobic, mean-spirited, and contrary to what the vast majority of the public think is fair) are likely to do significant economic damage.
As Brian Bell (Chair of the MAC) is quoted as saying, the proposed new rules on settlement (apart from being xenophobic, mean-spirited, and contrary to what the vast majority of the public think is fair) are likely to do significant economic damage.
Reposted by Simon Talbot
7. It is, however, completely contrary to the narrative from many politicians/media/thinktanks that recent work migration is a) mostly low-skill & b) has a large fiscal cost.
The post-Brexit migration system was far from perfect! But it was clearly an economic benefit, not a cost. ENDS
The post-Brexit migration system was far from perfect! But it was clearly an economic benefit, not a cost. ENDS
December 11, 2025 at 6:27 PM
7. It is, however, completely contrary to the narrative from many politicians/media/thinktanks that recent work migration is a) mostly low-skill & b) has a large fiscal cost.
The post-Brexit migration system was far from perfect! But it was clearly an economic benefit, not a cost. ENDS
The post-Brexit migration system was far from perfect! But it was clearly an economic benefit, not a cost. ENDS
Reposted by Simon Talbot
6. So the overall story is that high skilled/high paid workers are strongly fiscally positive, while medium/lower paid workers are (very broadly) fiscally neutral in the long run (although positive in the short run). This is no great surprise to those of us who've looked at the data..
December 11, 2025 at 6:22 PM
6. So the overall story is that high skilled/high paid workers are strongly fiscally positive, while medium/lower paid workers are (very broadly) fiscally neutral in the long run (although positive in the short run). This is no great surprise to those of us who've looked at the data..
Reposted by Simon Talbot
5. In the short term (where the numbers are more certain for obvious reasons) the picture is (even) more positive -even dependents are fiscally positive
December 11, 2025 at 6:20 PM
5. In the short term (where the numbers are more certain for obvious reasons) the picture is (even) more positive -even dependents are fiscally positive
Reposted by Simon Talbot
4. Even care workers (a subset of those on the Health and Care Visa) are only a relatively small direct fiscal cost, and as the report says roughly comparable to Brits:
"Care Workers are therefore fiscally negative over their lifetimes and broadly similar to the UK median for the age group"
"Care Workers are therefore fiscally negative over their lifetimes and broadly similar to the UK median for the age group"
December 11, 2025 at 6:19 PM
4. Even care workers (a subset of those on the Health and Care Visa) are only a relatively small direct fiscal cost, and as the report says roughly comparable to Brits:
"Care Workers are therefore fiscally negative over their lifetimes and broadly similar to the UK median for the age group"
"Care Workers are therefore fiscally negative over their lifetimes and broadly similar to the UK median for the age group"
Reposted by Simon Talbot
3. This isn't surprising! The SWV was supposed to be targeted at private sector workers who would make a significant economic/fiscal contribution. The Health and Care Visa was to address skill/labour shortages in the NHS and care sectors, not to (directly) boost government finances.
December 11, 2025 at 6:16 PM
3. This isn't surprising! The SWV was supposed to be targeted at private sector workers who would make a significant economic/fiscal contribution. The Health and Care Visa was to address skill/labour shortages in the NHS and care sectors, not to (directly) boost government finances.
Reposted by Simon Talbot
2. But this is highly heterogeneous - mostly driven by skilled workers *not* on health/care visas. The latter are also positive, but much smaller numbers, and offset by dependants.
December 11, 2025 at 6:15 PM
2. But this is highly heterogeneous - mostly driven by skilled workers *not* on health/care visas. The latter are also positive, but much smaller numbers, and offset by dependants.
Reposted by Simon Talbot
1. This is the lifetime (discounted back) net contribution of those who arrived on skilled work visas (including health/care visas) *and* their dependants in 2022/23.
One way of looking at it is that this cohort (one year's worth of migrants) will "pay" for about 1.5% of the UK's £3 trillion debt
One way of looking at it is that this cohort (one year's worth of migrants) will "pay" for about 1.5% of the UK's £3 trillion debt
December 11, 2025 at 6:13 PM
1. This is the lifetime (discounted back) net contribution of those who arrived on skilled work visas (including health/care visas) *and* their dependants in 2022/23.
One way of looking at it is that this cohort (one year's worth of migrants) will "pay" for about 1.5% of the UK's £3 trillion debt
One way of looking at it is that this cohort (one year's worth of migrants) will "pay" for about 1.5% of the UK's £3 trillion debt
Reposted by Simon Talbot
"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee."
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
December 11, 2025 at 6:09 PM
"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee."
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Not surprising, but some observations (1/n)
www.ft.com/content/10da...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Everyone can see Shabana Mahmood is the heir to Blair. Even Tony www.independent.co.uk/voices/shaba...
Everyone can see Shabana Mahmood is the heir to Blair. Even Tony
The home secretary’s all-but anointment by Labour’s most successful leader came as she spoke powerfully about faith, culture and identity, writes John Rentoul. The party should listen
www.independent.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Everyone can see Shabana Mahmood is the heir to Blair. Even Tony www.independent.co.uk/voices/shaba...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
From the archive, 5 years ago: “People say, ‘How can you sell this for such a low price?’ I say, because it’s total crap.” #Top10 Perfect Gaffes independent.co.uk/voices/top-1...
The Top 10: Perfect gaffes | John Rentoul
A collection of occasions when a white lie might have been better advised
independent.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 9:18 PM
From the archive, 5 years ago: “People say, ‘How can you sell this for such a low price?’ I say, because it’s total crap.” #Top10 Perfect Gaffes independent.co.uk/voices/top-1...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Although Condorcet winners are by definition the majority-preferred option, they frequently do not secure the largest share of votes. Nevertheless, they enter government with remarkable consistency, doing so in roughly 90% of cases across electoral system types.
December 12, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Although Condorcet winners are by definition the majority-preferred option, they frequently do not secure the largest share of votes. Nevertheless, they enter government with remarkable consistency, doing so in roughly 90% of cases across electoral system types.
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Using data from the CSES we show that Condorcet-winner parties are often centrally located within the party system, but they are not necessarily large parties. Most often, they are social democrats, while nationalist parties are most often Condorcet losers.
December 12, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Using data from the CSES we show that Condorcet-winner parties are often centrally located within the party system, but they are not necessarily large parties. Most often, they are social democrats, while nationalist parties are most often Condorcet losers.
Reposted by Simon Talbot
New article , together with Salvatore Barbaro, in Public Choice: On the prevalence of Condorcet's Paradox.
Analyzing 253 national elections, we show that Condorcet Paradoxes virtually never occur. This raises an important question: who is the Condorcet winner?
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Analyzing 253 national elections, we show that Condorcet Paradoxes virtually never occur. This raises an important question: who is the Condorcet winner?
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
December 12, 2025 at 10:22 AM
New article , together with Salvatore Barbaro, in Public Choice: On the prevalence of Condorcet's Paradox.
Analyzing 253 national elections, we show that Condorcet Paradoxes virtually never occur. This raises an important question: who is the Condorcet winner?
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Analyzing 253 national elections, we show that Condorcet Paradoxes virtually never occur. This raises an important question: who is the Condorcet winner?
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
This is one that I've only ever shown here rarely: it is "St Augustin's, Watling Street" by Elwin Hawthorne. It is undated but, judging by the obvious bomb damage, it must have been painted in the period soon after WW2 as one can see in the photo courtesy of Britain from Above. #ElwinHawthorne
December 12, 2025 at 9:35 AM
This is one that I've only ever shown here rarely: it is "St Augustin's, Watling Street" by Elwin Hawthorne. It is undated but, judging by the obvious bomb damage, it must have been painted in the period soon after WW2 as one can see in the photo courtesy of Britain from Above. #ElwinHawthorne
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Britain does not want a war against Putin – but it would win one www.independent.co.uk/voices/russi...
Britain does not want a war against Putin – but it would win one
The PM is not the shrinking violet his critics think him to be and presides over an economy around twice the size of Russia’s, says John Rentoul – this talk of ‘the scale of war our grandparents or gr...
www.independent.co.uk
December 12, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Britain does not want a war against Putin – but it would win one www.independent.co.uk/voices/russi...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Young doctors and training places. Whats the problem? www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...
BBC Sounds - The Briefing Room - Available Episodes
Listen to the latest episodes of The Briefing Room on BBC Sounds.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Young doctors and training places. Whats the problem? www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Listen to insights from our Policy Analyst @markgdayan.bsky.social on this week's edition of The Briefing Room 👇
Young doctors and training places. Whats the problem? www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...
BBC Sounds - The Briefing Room - Available Episodes
Listen to the latest episodes of The Briefing Room on BBC Sounds.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Listen to insights from our Policy Analyst @markgdayan.bsky.social on this week's edition of The Briefing Room 👇
Reposted by Simon Talbot
WOW! AN HONOR! — GCN
December 6, 2025 at 4:16 AM
WOW! AN HONOR! — GCN
Reposted by Simon Talbot
Spot on.
Once you see it, you cannot unsee it.
Once you see it, you cannot unsee it.
Person who actually deserves a trophy is the artist who made the FIFA peace prize trophy look like everyone in the entire world holding their head in their hands out of secondhand embarrassment
December 6, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Spot on.
Once you see it, you cannot unsee it.
Once you see it, you cannot unsee it.