Josh Putnam
@www.fhqplus.com
Political scientist specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC.
blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/
business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/
blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/
business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
Republican rule changes for the 2028 cycle
The RNC's work on delegate rules isn't done, but the baseline is different on several fronts from the regulations that guided the 2024 process
www.fhqplus.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM
There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
Republican rule changes for the 2028 cycle
The RNC's work on delegate rules isn't done, but the baseline is different on several fronts from the regulations that guided the 2024 process
www.fhqplus.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM
There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...
Nice guest post up at Tusk from @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and @prowag.bsky.social on the results of a @bcburden.bsky.social survey of 2024 national convention delegates from both parties.
smotus.substack.com/p/republican...
smotus.substack.com/p/republican...
Republican and Democratic convention delegates agree on strategy and not much else
A look at a new survey on party convention delegates
smotus.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Nice guest post up at Tusk from @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and @prowag.bsky.social on the results of a @bcburden.bsky.social survey of 2024 national convention delegates from both parties.
smotus.substack.com/p/republican...
smotus.substack.com/p/republican...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com
December 8, 2025 at 6:15 PM
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com
December 8, 2025 at 6:15 PM
New York? On Super Tuesday?
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications?
www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...
This is a change for Skoufis. He's introduced legislation to consolidate the New York presidential primary with other primaries in June three previous times. Now he's advocating for a Super Tuesday date for the presidential primary. The funny thing is...
edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...
edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...
New York lawmakers aim to move 2028 primaries up to Super Tuesday | CNN Politics
The voters who chose Zohran Mamdani might be about to get a bigger voice in picking Democrats’ next presidential nominee.
edition.cnn.com
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This is a change for Skoufis. He's introduced legislation to consolidate the New York presidential primary with other primaries in June three previous times. Now he's advocating for a Super Tuesday date for the presidential primary. The funny thing is...
edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...
edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention.
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
The latest trial balloon for ranked choice voting in presidential primaries
Recent lobbying efforts to bring RCV to the Democratic presidential nomination process face obstacles in and outside of the national party
www.fhqplus.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention.
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Today is a good day to remind you that none of the classic vote studies thought very highly of women's political competence.
November 25, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Today is a good day to remind you that none of the classic vote studies thought very highly of women's political competence.
Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention.
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
The latest trial balloon for ranked choice voting in presidential primaries
Recent lobbying efforts to bring RCV to the Democratic presidential nomination process face obstacles in and outside of the national party
www.fhqplus.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention.
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries).
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process.
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
Are Democrats really considering putting Michigan's primary first for 2028?
The early answer appears to be yes. But why when the Great Lakes state is not a perfect fit for the national party's selection criteria?
www.fhqplus.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process.
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
I mean, technically the Democrats don't have plurality, single-winner primaries in the presidential nomination process now. [This particular push is exclusively aimed at those primaries and not others.]
missed this. dems should do it regardless of the motivations. plurality single-winner primaries are dumb www.axios.com/2025/11/24/d...
Scoop: Democrats eye ranked-choice voting for 2028 primaries
It's a tool that drew national attention when it propelled New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to a decisive primary win.
www.axios.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:30 PM
I mean, technically the Democrats don't have plurality, single-winner primaries in the presidential nomination process now. [This particular push is exclusively aimed at those primaries and not others.]
Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process.
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
Are Democrats really considering putting Michigan's primary first for 2028?
The early answer appears to be yes. But why when the Great Lakes state is not a perfect fit for the national party's selection criteria?
www.fhqplus.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process.
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
A short thread of observations using Max Andrew's tool to explore the network of relationships revealed in the Epstein estate email cache. @thatsjustlikeyouropinionman.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:29 AM
A short thread of observations using Max Andrew's tool to explore the network of relationships revealed in the Epstein estate email cache. @thatsjustlikeyouropinionman.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
Reposted by Josh Putnam
For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
How long will Democratic presidential contenders keep going to Iowa?
Possible 2028 Democrats keep trekking to the Hawkeye state but those visits aren't guaranteed to last. Here's why.
www.fhqplus.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/
Reposted by Josh Putnam
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Speaker Nancy Pelosi: A Master of the House
This article analyzes the record of Nancy Pelosi’s four terms as Speaker of the House of Representatives. It evaluates her performance through three main lenses: as a party leader, institutional leade...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:40 PM
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results:
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results
“Unless the president is unusually popular, the party holding the White House will suffer significant losses in off-year elections” is a very well-established pattern, so nothing about the Democratic ...
honestgraft.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results:
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out.
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
November 5, 2025 at 2:11 PM
I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out.
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
November 5, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
Reposted by Josh Putnam
But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals).
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals).
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends.
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Now we know what they're looking for.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.
www.fhqplus.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...
Reposted by Josh Putnam
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
2025 Early Vote Pre-Election Update
I'll add to this post throughout the day as data become available
open.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...