Xavier MacDuff
@xvrmdf.bsky.social
This move in Alphabet stock is really going to trash 2025 relative performance for so many active equity managers. Brutal.
November 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This move in Alphabet stock is really going to trash 2025 relative performance for so many active equity managers. Brutal.
It feels like my Substack feed is now entirely taken up by descriptive "deep dives" on individual stocks, and anthologies of investing "wisdom", almost all of which are written by AI. Just dreadful to wade through it all.
November 23, 2025 at 12:24 PM
It feels like my Substack feed is now entirely taken up by descriptive "deep dives" on individual stocks, and anthologies of investing "wisdom", almost all of which are written by AI. Just dreadful to wade through it all.
I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!
November 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM
I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!
So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.
November 20, 2025 at 2:41 PM
So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.
UK building materials names firms looking interesting here. 🇬🇧
✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs.
✅️ 10yr-low multiples.
✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating.
✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets.
✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals.
✅️ BoE cutting over next year.
✅️ Good dividends.
✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs.
✅️ 10yr-low multiples.
✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating.
✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets.
✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals.
✅️ BoE cutting over next year.
✅️ Good dividends.
November 20, 2025 at 11:37 AM
UK building materials names firms looking interesting here. 🇬🇧
✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs.
✅️ 10yr-low multiples.
✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating.
✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets.
✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals.
✅️ BoE cutting over next year.
✅️ Good dividends.
✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs.
✅️ 10yr-low multiples.
✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating.
✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets.
✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals.
✅️ BoE cutting over next year.
✅️ Good dividends.
I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
November 18, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
A lot of left-wing politicians and activists absolutely losing their minds over the UK immigration reforms.
Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰
Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰
November 18, 2025 at 8:07 AM
A lot of left-wing politicians and activists absolutely losing their minds over the UK immigration reforms.
Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰
Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰
Wow. Reform vs Green reps arguing on Newsnight is a grim look into our political future.
November 17, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Wow. Reform vs Green reps arguing on Newsnight is a grim look into our political future.
Reposted by Xavier MacDuff
while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:
November 13, 2025 at 4:01 PM
while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:
At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?
Keir Starmer has effectively started a leadership challenge against himself. To have entered into this kind of madhouse Westminster squabbling so soon after an election is simply unforgivable.
inews.co.uk/opinion/back...
inews.co.uk/opinion/back...
I have always backed Starmer - until now
This kind of Westminster squabbling is unforgivable
inews.co.uk
November 13, 2025 at 11:53 AM
At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
November 12, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio.
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio.
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.
a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news
ALT: a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news
media.tenor.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.
Absolute banger of a Grand Designs this week. Is £2m enough? Not even close!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Grand Designs - Stratford-upon-Avon 2025
Is Piers and Emma's £2m enough to build the UK's first new listed castle for 100 years?
www.channel4.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Absolute banger of a Grand Designs this week. Is £2m enough? Not even close!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
November 2, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
Revealed preference at work...
New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich
Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins the mayorship.
www.bloomberg.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Revealed preference at work...
UK soft power at work:
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
October 29, 2025 at 8:01 PM
UK soft power at work:
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
One of the best TV shows out there:
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody - Murder Is No Game - Part 1
Responding to reports of gunshots, officers find three members of a family fatally wounded
www.channel4.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:38 PM
One of the best TV shows out there:
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
The most insane thing you will read today (if you have the stomach for it).
The Goon Squad, by Daniel Kolitz
Loneliness, porn’s next frontier, and the dream of endless masturbation
harpers.org
October 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The most insane thing you will read today (if you have the stomach for it).
Worst thing about Bluesky has to be the people who constantly cross-post the most toxic Twitter content along with a comment along the lines of "look how bad this is".
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
October 22, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Worst thing about Bluesky has to be the people who constantly cross-post the most toxic Twitter content along with a comment along the lines of "look how bad this is".
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
October 22, 2025 at 6:19 PM
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
October 22, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
Sharing a few choice paragraphs from this in the thread below. ⬇️
Latest reading: "Great Britain? How we get our future back" by @torstenbell.bsky.social.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
October 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Sharing a few choice paragraphs from this in the thread below. ⬇️
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
October 15, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
Whilst it's nice to see one of my largest holdings up 20%, I think the current valuation multiple is an absolute steal, and I would be annoyed to lose it at this level.
Blackstone Weighs Bid for UK Storage Landlord Big Yellow
Blackstone Inc is weighing an offer for UK storage landlord Big Yellow Group Plc.
www.bloomberg.com
October 13, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Whilst it's nice to see one of my largest holdings up 20%, I think the current valuation multiple is an absolute steal, and I would be annoyed to lose it at this level.