Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of The Defender's Dilemma (2022), Goodbye Globalization (2024) and Undersea War (2026). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views .. more
Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of The Defender's Dilemma (2022), Goodbye Globalization (2024) and Undersea War (2026). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views
Helena Elisabeth Braw is a Swedish security expert and former journalist active in Great Britain. She leads the Modern Deterrence project at the defense and security think tank RUSI in London. She is a senior fellow of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. .. more
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw
www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/P...
In late December there was a massive attack on Poland's energy infrastructure - an attempt to cause a blackout in the middle of the winter.
And it turns out - Russia was behind it.
Greyzone aggression in action, again.
tvpworld.com/91021372/pol...
I haven't written anything - because I'm finishing Undersea War. And what a week to finish it.
(Bonus points for anyone who can guess the incident in the picture.)
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
CDS Sir Richard Knighton has called for an 'all-in mentality' to protect the UK.
Hear, hear. And teenagers, pensioners and others may have useful ideas no one has yet thought of.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
(Me @thetimes.com)
But companies can teach their employees what to look for, because spotting incidents is everyone’s responsibility.
But - the employees were alert, and the man was arrested.
A lesson for other companies, because attacks against our companies will continue, I write in @politico.eu. No paywall.
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw
But companies can teach their employees what to look for, because spotting incidents is everyone’s responsibility.
The winners include...narco-terrrorism, drone wall, persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/23/n... (Gift link)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good.
In the past, when I (and others) made similar pleas, the reaction was typically that it wouldn't work in the UK. But now it's urgent.
www.digitaldigging.org/p/they-drone...
Including the figures they've obtained:
'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw, Pascale Aebischer
www.digitaldigging.org/p/they-drone...
It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw
Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw
Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.
Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.
Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...
(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw, Henry Farrell
Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.
Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.
But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
Reposted by Elisabeth Braw
A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.
The incidents have stopped (for now).
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.
www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)