Keir Giles
@keirgiles.bsky.social
Twitter refugee #1,383,497
Pinned
Keir Giles
@keirgiles.bsky.social
· Jul 2
I Was Hacked Because I Work on Russia
But the same clever new attack could be used against almost anyone.
foreignpolicy.com
More on the very clever, but also very simple, way unknown persons* convinced me to crack open my email account for them last month.
Here's the problem: almost all of us have this same back door in our security. Now it's in the open, could we all be targets?
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/02/g...
Here's the problem: almost all of us have this same back door in our security. Now it's in the open, could we all be targets?
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/02/g...
It’s a while since I last travelled by Eurostar. Let’s see if this is still a barefaced lie.
November 26, 2025 at 5:01 PM
It’s a while since I last travelled by Eurostar. Let’s see if this is still a barefaced lie.
It’s the omission that is most telling. This article on “how is Europe beefing up its armies?” checks in on militaries across the continent that are increasing their manning to meet the threat… and doesn’t mention the UK once.
If this article had been written in November 2015 instead of November 2025, then we would not be scrambling to raise our defences like frightened rabbits caught in Russian headlights.
Western leaders can't say they weren't warned. They were. repeatedly and in great detail, from April 2014.
Western leaders can't say they weren't warned. They were. repeatedly and in great detail, from April 2014.
As France prepares military expansion, how is Europe beefing up its armies?
European nations are rushing to bolster their defences amid Russia threat and uncertainty of US support
www.theguardian.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:59 PM
It’s the omission that is most telling. This article on “how is Europe beefing up its armies?” checks in on militaries across the continent that are increasing their manning to meet the threat… and doesn’t mention the UK once.
Since we are in the bowels of St Pancras, I suppose the only thing you can describe this as is severe constipation. (Again. Eurostar from London has chronic severe constipation.)
November 26, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Since we are in the bowels of St Pancras, I suppose the only thing you can describe this as is severe constipation. (Again. Eurostar from London has chronic severe constipation.)
Reposted by Keir Giles
Agreed.
Total bs to sit there talking about it, patting each others back for "helping". Stop talking and do something.
Just move troops inside western Ukraine (if ua is ok with it oc). Don't ask the Russians or Americans. Just do it.
@keirgiles.bsky.social has described this solkutin long ago;
Total bs to sit there talking about it, patting each others back for "helping". Stop talking and do something.
Just move troops inside western Ukraine (if ua is ok with it oc). Don't ask the Russians or Americans. Just do it.
@keirgiles.bsky.social has described this solkutin long ago;
November 26, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Agreed.
Total bs to sit there talking about it, patting each others back for "helping". Stop talking and do something.
Just move troops inside western Ukraine (if ua is ok with it oc). Don't ask the Russians or Americans. Just do it.
@keirgiles.bsky.social has described this solkutin long ago;
Total bs to sit there talking about it, patting each others back for "helping". Stop talking and do something.
Just move troops inside western Ukraine (if ua is ok with it oc). Don't ask the Russians or Americans. Just do it.
@keirgiles.bsky.social has described this solkutin long ago;
Reposted by Keir Giles
This just all feels like make believe and an effort by two broke countries trying to demonstrate continued relevance.
Russia is not going to agree to this. And it requires them to agree to this. Nothing wrong with planning. But let’s put this in perspective.
www.politico.eu/article/pote...
Russia is not going to agree to this. And it requires them to agree to this. Nothing wrong with planning. But let’s put this in perspective.
www.politico.eu/article/pote...
As potential Ukraine deal looms, France and Britain map out boots-on-ground role
Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday announced a new joint task-force — with U.S. buy-in — aiming at “finalized security guarantees” if a peace deal lands.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This just all feels like make believe and an effort by two broke countries trying to demonstrate continued relevance.
Russia is not going to agree to this. And it requires them to agree to this. Nothing wrong with planning. But let’s put this in perspective.
www.politico.eu/article/pote...
Russia is not going to agree to this. And it requires them to agree to this. Nothing wrong with planning. But let’s put this in perspective.
www.politico.eu/article/pote...
Reposted by Keir Giles
True. But this theater is getting tiresome, and I am not sure it's working for Europe. Perhaps it's time to make it clear to Trump that there are no negotiations instead of leading him to think that there are—and in the process fooling a lot of Europeans into believing that peace is close.
What folks need to realize about "peace talks" is that this is all theater for Washington. Ukraine knows that Russia has no intention of stopping the war, and the Russians know the Ukrainians know that. So this is just all a performance for Trump, hoping he blames the other for the lack of peace.
November 26, 2025 at 2:42 PM
True. But this theater is getting tiresome, and I am not sure it's working for Europe. Perhaps it's time to make it clear to Trump that there are no negotiations instead of leading him to think that there are—and in the process fooling a lot of Europeans into believing that peace is close.
November 26, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Reposted by Keir Giles
Small correction: “Bloomberg has published the transcript of TWO conversations between Putin’s negotiators about the peace plan before it was handed over to the United States.” You forgot the conversation with Witkoff is also “between Putin’s negotiators”.
November 26, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Small correction: “Bloomberg has published the transcript of TWO conversations between Putin’s negotiators about the peace plan before it was handed over to the United States.” You forgot the conversation with Witkoff is also “between Putin’s negotiators”.
Reposted by Keir Giles
It looks like we need peace negotations leading to ceasefire between Witkoff, Rubio and Vance.
November 26, 2025 at 7:43 AM
It looks like we need peace negotations leading to ceasefire between Witkoff, Rubio and Vance.
Reposted by Keir Giles
For the sake of European security, Europe's leaders should agree to release Russia’s frozen assets for the support of Ukraine — and clearly state their willingness to defend Ukraine in the face of future Russian aggression.
Read Bronwen Maddox's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Read Bronwen Maddox's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Trump’s 28 point ‘peace plan’ marks Europe’s last chance to stand up for Ukraine
European national leaders have been too slow and cautious in their support for Kyiv. Can they rise to meet this defining moment?
www.chathamhouse.org
November 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
For the sake of European security, Europe's leaders should agree to release Russia’s frozen assets for the support of Ukraine — and clearly state their willingness to defend Ukraine in the face of future Russian aggression.
Read Bronwen Maddox's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
Read Bronwen Maddox's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
"This country has a plan for war with Putin. It puts the UK to shame."
Unusually, the "this country" that puts the UK to shame is in this case not Poland, Estonia, or Finland. It's Italy.
Paywalled.
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Unusually, the "this country" that puts the UK to shame is in this case not Poland, Estonia, or Finland. It's Italy.
Paywalled.
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
This country has a plan for war with Putin. It puts the UK to shame
While Italy sounds the alarm over Russian aggression, much of Europe is still snoozing - even as the Kremlin's sabotage campaign escalates
inews.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 11:45 AM
"This country has a plan for war with Putin. It puts the UK to shame."
Unusually, the "this country" that puts the UK to shame is in this case not Poland, Estonia, or Finland. It's Italy.
Paywalled.
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Unusually, the "this country" that puts the UK to shame is in this case not Poland, Estonia, or Finland. It's Italy.
Paywalled.
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Reposted by Keir Giles
"Europe’s problem is not that it lacks options. It is that it refuses to use them". Jade McGlynn skewers both the Dmitriev/Witkoff plan for Ukraine's destruction, & Europe's refusal to act decisively enough to prevent disaster. open.substack.com/pub/smalldee...
Circus
Amidst the absolute chaos of a Witkoff-stamped Russian psyop-as-peace plan, discussion is filled with anger at Washington and at Moscow.
open.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:43 AM
"Europe’s problem is not that it lacks options. It is that it refuses to use them". Jade McGlynn skewers both the Dmitriev/Witkoff plan for Ukraine's destruction, & Europe's refusal to act decisively enough to prevent disaster. open.substack.com/pub/smalldee...
Reposted by Keir Giles
Sadly in all these years there is only one thing I have written that has "become only of historical interest" (because Finland helpfully resolved the issues it describes by joining NATO).
All of the Russia stuff remains topical because Russia doesn't change.
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
All of the Russia stuff remains topical because Russia doesn't change.
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) Waking the Neighbour: Finland, NATO and Russia
PDF | On Jan 1, 2009, Keir Giles and others published Waking the Neighbour: Finland, NATO and Russia | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate
www.researchgate.net
November 25, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Sadly in all these years there is only one thing I have written that has "become only of historical interest" (because Finland helpfully resolved the issues it describes by joining NATO).
All of the Russia stuff remains topical because Russia doesn't change.
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
All of the Russia stuff remains topical because Russia doesn't change.
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
As of today, 'Who Will Defend Europe?' is available in paperback with an updated preface.
I really did hope that by now, a year after first publication, some of Europe's defence emergency would have been addressed and some of the warnings in the book would have been proven wrong.
amzn.to/4cFI1b6
I really did hope that by now, a year after first publication, some of Europe's defence emergency would have been addressed and some of the warnings in the book would have been proven wrong.
amzn.to/4cFI1b6
Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent
Who will defend Europe? The answer should be obvious: Europe should be able to defend itself. Yet, for decades, most of the continent enjoyed a defence holiday, outsourcing protection to the United St...
amzn.to
November 25, 2025 at 7:28 AM
As of today, 'Who Will Defend Europe?' is available in paperback with an updated preface.
I really did hope that by now, a year after first publication, some of Europe's defence emergency would have been addressed and some of the warnings in the book would have been proven wrong.
amzn.to/4cFI1b6
I really did hope that by now, a year after first publication, some of Europe's defence emergency would have been addressed and some of the warnings in the book would have been proven wrong.
amzn.to/4cFI1b6
Consider Mexico. A thread.
Once upon a time, not even so very long ago, you would often hear from Russia's propagandists and their little helpers in the West about the "Mexico scenario".
Russia liked people to think that it only invaded its neighbours because it was forced to do so by NATO -
1/12
Once upon a time, not even so very long ago, you would often hear from Russia's propagandists and their little helpers in the West about the "Mexico scenario".
Russia liked people to think that it only invaded its neighbours because it was forced to do so by NATO -
1/12
November 24, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Consider Mexico. A thread.
Once upon a time, not even so very long ago, you would often hear from Russia's propagandists and their little helpers in the West about the "Mexico scenario".
Russia liked people to think that it only invaded its neighbours because it was forced to do so by NATO -
1/12
Once upon a time, not even so very long ago, you would often hear from Russia's propagandists and their little helpers in the West about the "Mexico scenario".
Russia liked people to think that it only invaded its neighbours because it was forced to do so by NATO -
1/12
Reposted by Keir Giles
Why are we still calling it a plan?
November 23, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Why are we still calling it a plan?
Reposted by Keir Giles
It’s taken a few days, but the penny is dropping: the 28-point plan wasn’t a diplomatic breakthrough, it was a case study in how effectively Moscow can work around US systems when the usual guardrails are removed.
November 23, 2025 at 10:22 PM
It’s taken a few days, but the penny is dropping: the 28-point plan wasn’t a diplomatic breakthrough, it was a case study in how effectively Moscow can work around US systems when the usual guardrails are removed.
Three days later, some of our mainstream media are latching on to who has been hoodwinked by Russia into endorsing the 28-point “peace plan”, and how easy it was for Moscow.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/979bdd6...
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/979bdd6...
November 23, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Three days later, some of our mainstream media are latching on to who has been hoodwinked by Russia into endorsing the 28-point “peace plan”, and how easy it was for Moscow.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/979bdd6...
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/979bdd6...
Reposted by Keir Giles
And a key difference between Bluesky and ex-Twitter: the obviously fake account has been taken down.
November 23, 2025 at 7:56 AM
And a key difference between Bluesky and ex-Twitter: the obviously fake account has been taken down.
Reposted by Keir Giles
I expect to be reposting this every three months or so until the end of the Trump administration.
The more that members of the Trump administration talk, the more it sounds as if Plan A to stop the war was to coerce Ukraine into capitulation and Plan B was to keep repeating Plan A until it worked. When it became apparent that wasn't going to happen, they were out of ideas.
November 22, 2025 at 1:37 PM
I expect to be reposting this every three months or so until the end of the Trump administration.
The unanticipated existence of a “Comfort cabin” reminds me that it is a very long time since I last watched Taxi zum Klo.
November 22, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The unanticipated existence of a “Comfort cabin” reminds me that it is a very long time since I last watched Taxi zum Klo.
An eerie feeling to see the “bikini trolls“ phase of information operations on Twitter now being directly replicated on Bluesky exactly a decade later.
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
November 22, 2025 at 9:27 PM
An eerie feeling to see the “bikini trolls“ phase of information operations on Twitter now being directly replicated on Bluesky exactly a decade later.
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
Here’s the latest one to “follow” me:
bsky.app/profile/lili...
I just dipped a toe in the cesspit that used to be Twitter, and I think the surest indication that the “28 points” were translated from Russian is the number of Russian mouthpiece accounts busy shouting, unprompted, that that is absolutely not the case and they were drafted in the White House.
There is plenty in the 28-point list of US/Russian surrender demands for Ukraine that is nonsensical, unenforceable, or so vague as to be meaningless. My favourite might be
“9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.”
It could have been written for maximum vagueness to wrangle over -
“9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.”
It could have been written for maximum vagueness to wrangle over -
November 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
I just dipped a toe in the cesspit that used to be Twitter, and I think the surest indication that the “28 points” were translated from Russian is the number of Russian mouthpiece accounts busy shouting, unprompted, that that is absolutely not the case and they were drafted in the White House.
Reposted by Keir Giles
Ça veut dire aussi une communication plus large et plus vulgarisée sur les logiques de la politique étrangère russe. Le pavé de Dimitri Minic ou les bouquins en anglais de Keir Giles sont super mais la mère célibataire de 2 enfants qui a du mal à joindre les deux bouts, elle ne va pas les lire.
November 21, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Ça veut dire aussi une communication plus large et plus vulgarisée sur les logiques de la politique étrangère russe. Le pavé de Dimitri Minic ou les bouquins en anglais de Keir Giles sont super mais la mère célibataire de 2 enfants qui a du mal à joindre les deux bouts, elle ne va pas les lire.
Reposted by Keir Giles
@keirgiles.bsky.social : "Tässä ei ole kyse rauhanneuvotteluista vaan Venäjän antautumisvaatimusten välittämisestä Yhdysvaltojen aktiivisella avustuksella, Giles arvioi."
www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a...
www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a...
Huippututkija IL:lle: Trumpin sopimus avaa Putinille oven koko Ukrainan miehittämiseen
Brittiläinen Venäjä-tutkija Keir Giles arvioi Iltalehdelle, että meneillään ei ole neuvottelu rauhasta. Gilesin mukaan Donald Trumpin Yhdysvallat painostaa Ukrainaa antautumaan Venäjän ehtojen mukaise...
www.iltalehti.fi
November 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
@keirgiles.bsky.social : "Tässä ei ole kyse rauhanneuvotteluista vaan Venäjän antautumisvaatimusten välittämisestä Yhdysvaltojen aktiivisella avustuksella, Giles arvioi."
www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a...
www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a...