Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
Deputy director, Centre for European Reform, London @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social . Supporter of democracy, the rule of law, the EU & Ukraine. Opponent of authoritarianism, corruption & Putin's Russia.
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Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
· May 31
The Routledge Guide to the European Union
Written by experts, this long-established and definitive guide to the workings of the European Union provides comprehensive, straightforward and readable coverage of this sometimes misunderstood and c...
www.routledge.com
It's been a long time coming, but I am delighted to announce that the 2nd edition of the Routledge Guide to the European Union will be published on June 30th, and is available for pre-order from June 9th. @routledgebuseco.bsky.social @tandfresearch.bsky.social www.routledge.com/The-Routledg...
Excellent piece by @eribakova.bsky.social .
“Ukraine’s experience since February 2022 has upended long-held assumptions about the economics of war — from the belief that size and industrial capacity are a guarantee of victory to misunderstandings about mobilisation, logistics and adaptability.”
Ukraine, Europe and the new economics of war
By maintaining stability and innovating to hold out against Russia, Kyiv has shown that size matters less in conflict than it used to
giftarticle.ft.com
December 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Excellent piece by @eribakova.bsky.social .
When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.
#Russia has made two failed attempts to get the West to accept a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by diplomatic means. Now #Putin is intent on creating a sphere of influence by force. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.
Reposted by Ian Bond
This is rather like me saying I’m in “the final stretch” of my plan to become an Olympic 100m champion. I’ve got some new trainers and a nice t-shirt. I only need to do the last bit where I run 100m in 10 seconds. Everything else is sorted.
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s so-called envoy on Ukraine, says talks are “in the final stretch,” but admits the hardest part remains. Control over Donetsk, Luhansk, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are still unresolved.
December 7, 2025 at 8:24 AM
This is rather like me saying I’m in “the final stretch” of my plan to become an Olympic 100m champion. I’ve got some new trainers and a nice t-shirt. I only need to do the last bit where I run 100m in 10 seconds. Everything else is sorted.
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Europe is persuading Zelensky not to agree to withdraw troops from Donbas, — Bloomberg
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
December 7, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
This @thetimes.com piece www.thetimes.com/uk/education... on UK universities' co-operation with Chinese military-affiliated researchers strengthens the case in my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief for strengthening the UK approval scheme for sensitive research: www.cer.eu/publications...
China ‘systematically’ using UK research to gain a military edge
Report reveals that 8,000 scientific papers — involving 5,000 academics — have been produced in partnerships linked to the People’s Liberation Army
www.thetimes.com
December 7, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This @thetimes.com piece www.thetimes.com/uk/education... on UK universities' co-operation with Chinese military-affiliated researchers strengthens the case in my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief for strengthening the UK approval scheme for sensitive research: www.cer.eu/publications...
Reposted by Ian Bond
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
foreignpolicy.com
December 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
The important thing is that it should have far-reaching consequences for Russia, putting its victory in Ukraine further out of reach.
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
Russian Ambassador Slams EU Frozen Assets Plan for Ukraine - The Moscow Times
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The important thing is that it should have far-reaching consequences for Russia, putting its victory in Ukraine further out of reach.
This is not burden-sharing or even burden-shifting. It is the US abdicating its role in European security at the time when the threat is greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Europe must plan how to defend itself - starting by integrating Ukraine into planning & force structures.
‘The U.S. officials told their counterparts that if Europe does not meet the 2027 deadline, the U.S. may stop participating in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms’.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week,...
www.reuters.com
December 6, 2025 at 12:58 PM
This is not burden-sharing or even burden-shifting. It is the US abdicating its role in European security at the time when the threat is greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Europe must plan how to defend itself - starting by integrating Ukraine into planning & force structures.
Great thread. The most interesting point is how much more pro-Russia the 2nd Trump administration is than the 1st. One area where the lack of grown-ups like Matthis and Tillerson/Pompeo is really felt.
Thread on the huge shift in US policy towards Russia visible in the new National Security Strategy - the biggest change since the collapse of the USSR. 🧵
December 5, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Great thread. The most interesting point is how much more pro-Russia the 2nd Trump administration is than the 1st. One area where the lack of grown-ups like Matthis and Tillerson/Pompeo is really felt.
How about focussing on "Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of Russia as a perpetually expanding empire"?
The White House has released its new National Security strategy.
As suspected, it emphasizes the Western hemisphere.
It calls for “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”
^ Sop for Putin?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
As suspected, it emphasizes the Western hemisphere.
It calls for “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”
^ Sop for Putin?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
How about focussing on "Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of Russia as a perpetually expanding empire"?
Good piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social by former
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
America First, Europe Fourth – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Good piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social by former
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
A rather self-serving argument.
Russia's frozen state assets in the EU are better suited as a bargaining chip to achieve peace in Ukraine instead of financing a €165 billion reparations loan for Kyiv, according to the chief executive of Euroclear.
Euroclear boss: Use frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian peace deal
CEO Valérie Urbain weighs in on tortured loan saga.
www.politico.eu
December 5, 2025 at 2:03 PM
A rather self-serving argument.
Reposted by Ian Bond
And a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right - International Centre for Defence and Security
A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....
icds.ee
December 5, 2025 at 10:00 AM
And a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
Reposted by Ian Bond
The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Whether through malice, incompetence or both the Trump administration is doing what it can to help Putin & harm Europe. And ironically, it brings peace no closer because Putin sees the evidence of Western weakness & disunity as a reason to keep the war going & achieve his goal of destroying Ukraine.
🚨 Explosive report by Bloomberg:
The US has lobbied “several” EU countries to derail the reparations loan for Ukraine, arguing the Russian assets are needed to achieve a peace deal and shouldn’t be used to “prolong the war”.
The US has lobbied “several” EU countries to derail the reparations loan for Ukraine, arguing the Russian assets are needed to achieve a peace deal and shouldn’t be used to “prolong the war”.
US Urged Europeans to Oppose EU Plan for Loan to Support Ukraine
The US lobbied several countries in the European Union in an effort to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, according to European diplomats famil...
www.bloomberg.com
December 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Whether through malice, incompetence or both the Trump administration is doing what it can to help Putin & harm Europe. And ironically, it brings peace no closer because Putin sees the evidence of Western weakness & disunity as a reason to keep the war going & achieve his goal of destroying Ukraine.
Another good thread on this disturbing document.
1/Quick thoughts of implications of US National Security Strategy for Europe -- weaponized interdependence meets nationalist international. The US will use its tools (economic, technology, and financial dominance) to press for far right agenda.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov
December 5, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Another good thread on this disturbing document.
Reposted by Ian Bond
The headline, the main takeaway from a European viewpoint is this:
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
December 5, 2025 at 9:49 AM
The headline, the main takeaway from a European viewpoint is this:
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
"Patiotic European parties" - ie pro-Russian neofascists.
I had just read excerpts via @samagreene.bsky.social
So Trump 2.0 is officially determined to officially meddle in the domestic politics of Euro countries.
Not some new revelation, but the pompousness and self-righteousness of putting it in black and white in this official document is pathetic.
So Trump 2.0 is officially determined to officially meddle in the domestic politics of Euro countries.
Not some new revelation, but the pompousness and self-righteousness of putting it in black and white in this official document is pathetic.
December 5, 2025 at 11:18 AM
"Patiotic European parties" - ie pro-Russian neofascists.
@jpuglierin.bsky.social with a summary of the Europe-related horrors in the US National Security Strategy.
Europeans are waking up this morning to find the new US National Security Strategy (quietly) released. And what it has to say on Europe could not be clearer. On the „stark prospect of civilizations erasure“ for example. 👇
December 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
@jpuglierin.bsky.social with a summary of the Europe-related horrors in the US National Security Strategy.
If Europe (except far right populists) thinks we can still rely on the US as an ally, the new NSS should disabuse them. No criticism of Russia, but hostility to the EU. And “Managing European relations with Russia will require significant US diplomatic engagement”, rather than military pushback!
December 5, 2025 at 7:47 AM
If Europe (except far right populists) thinks we can still rely on the US as an ally, the new NSS should disabuse them. No criticism of Russia, but hostility to the EU. And “Managing European relations with Russia will require significant US diplomatic engagement”, rather than military pushback!
Reposted by Ian Bond
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 5:06 AM
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Ian Bond
#Ukraine has made its geopolitical choice in favour of the West, but still has many hurdles to overcome before it can join the EU. It must not fall back into old, corrupt ways of doing things. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 4, 2025 at 12:01 PM
#Ukraine has made its geopolitical choice in favour of the West, but still has many hurdles to overcome before it can join the EU. It must not fall back into old, corrupt ways of doing things. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
Astute observations from Sir Rodric Braithwaite.
December 3, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Astute observations from Sir Rodric Braithwaite.
Reposted by Ian Bond
#Ukraine is often portrayed as split between Ukrainian-speakers & Russian-speakers with different visions of their future. That was an exaggeration before the war & is even less true now. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 3, 2025 at 10:00 AM
#Ukraine is often portrayed as split between Ukrainian-speakers & Russian-speakers with different visions of their future. That was an exaggeration before the war & is even less true now. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
Looking forward to reading this in detail, but at first glance it looks like a very good analysis of the different 'camps'. I'm firmly in the camp that believes Ukraine’s security is essential for Europe's security, & security arrangements should reflect that.
Today, NATO foreign ministers are meeting to discuss issues including support for Ukraine. Céline Marangé & Susan Stewart argue that actors who link Ukraine’s security to Europe’s are more active in integrating Ukraine into existing EU and NATO security frameworks. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
The Tipping Point: An Emerging Model of European Security with Ukraine and without Russia
This joint study by the SWP and the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM, Paris) starts from the premise that Ukraine’s and Russia’s visions...
www.swp-berlin.org
December 3, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Looking forward to reading this in detail, but at first glance it looks like a very good analysis of the different 'camps'. I'm firmly in the camp that believes Ukraine’s security is essential for Europe's security, & security arrangements should reflect that.