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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 6d

Russia's shadow fleet is dual-use: many vessels don't just transport sanctioned oil but have other uses too (think surveillance, threatening cables).

One group knows a lot about them: Danish pilots. We should listen to them.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/02/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is Doing More Than Sanctions-Busting

In the Baltic, Russian-linked vessels are suspected of spying and sabotage.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 6d

Helsinki District Court's judgment in the pivotal Eagle S case:

- The court says it lacks jurisdiction
- But it also says the three seafarers perpetrated "aggravated criminal damage".

There are lots of implications. We won't have seen the last suspicious cable/pipeline incident.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21d

Such a book is indeed in its way...

Let's see what else may transpire between now and the publication next year.

James Barr @jamesbarr.bsky.social · 21d

I have an uncomfortable feeling that at some point this report will feature in a book. The sentence will read: “In fact a committee of MPs had drawn attention to the vulnerability of the UK’s subsea cables a year before the attack took place.”

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21d

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables.

It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

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James Barr @jamesbarr.bsky.social · 21d

I have an uncomfortable feeling that at some point this report will feature in a book. The sentence will read: “In fact a committee of MPs had drawn attention to the vulnerability of the UK’s subsea cables a year before the attack took place.”

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21d

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables.

It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21d

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables.

It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21d

What constitutes an act of war these days?

The people defining this crucial issue are...underwriters.

The trial of Serhii K will be of enormous significance for them - and indeed for everyone.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/17/n...

(Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)

What Is War? Ask an Underwriter.

Correctly defining conflict has high stakes in the insurance industry.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 29d

A few days ago, Poland released an "in case of crisis or war" leaflet.

It turned out to be prescient, what with Russian drones crossing into Poland last night.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Sep 8

Intently watching the Red Sea region for any announcements regarding the cable cuts.

Were the cuts intentional? A massively unfortunate accident?

The world of cables has truly taken turbulent turns since I began writing Undersea War.

www.techradar.com/pro/microsof...

Microsoft Azure services see major disruption after Red Sea cables cut

Azure and other services are experiencing disruptions

www.techradar.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 30

Taiwan's new Zero Day Attack television series:

Brilliant entertainment - and the attacks (including sea blockade, disruption of the financial system etc) are very close to reality.

That makes the show educational too.

Lots of countries need a show like this.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/t...

Can TV Help Prepare for Invasion?

Taiwan’s “Zero Day Attack” sets an example other threatened states can follow.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 28

The UK (and other countries) should do like Sweden, which has just begun teaching national security (total defence, to be precise) in secondary schools.

Investing in defence equipment is good. But teenagers' minds have even more potential.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Me @thetimes.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 25

Another cheap Chinese EV is coming to the European market.

Chinese EVs are cheap partly because they use LFP batteries.

We seem doomed to dependence on China.

But: Europe now has its very own LFP factory - in Norway.

www.politico.eu/article/norw...

Me @politico.eu

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Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Aug 7

“The studies imply estimated [Gaza] life expectancy has fallen by more than 35 years, to ~ half the pre-war figure. In percentage terms…bigger than…during China’s Great Leap Forward; in absolute terms it is similar to the one in the Rwanda genocide” www.economist.com/interactive/...

How much of Gaza is left standing?

Analysis by independent researchers reveals the scale of the destruction

www.economist.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 7

We may be snickering at the Admiral Kuznetsov's slow demise and expected death.

But she's not that important to the Russian Navy. Submarines are -- and the submarine fleet is growing significantly.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/06/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 2

Greyzone aggression has become our daily reality.

Now it emerges that Russia recruited a Colombian to commit arson in Poland.

Selyst @selyst2023.bsky.social · Jul 30

@elisabethbraw.bsky.social
@sandbaggerone.bsky.social @gordoncorera.bsky.social @keirgiles.bsky.social @danjarvismp.bsky.social
Colombian veteran recruited over Telegram for proxy arson attacks in Poland and Czechia

#GreyZone

www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/Art...

Colombian linked to Russian-backed arson attacks in Poland, say authorities

A 27-year-old Colombian man working for Russian intelligence was behind two arson attacks in Poland in 2024, authorities said on Tuesday.

www.polskieradio.pl

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Selyst @selyst2023.bsky.social · Jul 30

@elisabethbraw.bsky.social
@sandbaggerone.bsky.social @gordoncorera.bsky.social @keirgiles.bsky.social @danjarvismp.bsky.social
Colombian veteran recruited over Telegram for proxy arson attacks in Poland and Czechia

#GreyZone

www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/Art...

Colombian linked to Russian-backed arson attacks in Poland, say authorities

A 27-year-old Colombian man working for Russian intelligence was behind two arson attacks in Poland in 2024, authorities said on Tuesday.

www.polskieradio.pl

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

Greyzone aggression:

Years ago, I had trouble convincing people it was worth taking seriously.

Since then, it has exploded (so to speak).

It was a privilege to be involved in the UK Parliament Defence Committee's outstanding inquiry.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

The Committee's summary is very apt:

War on every doorstep

Great work, @tandhesi.bsky.social and team.

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

Greyzone aggression:

Years ago, I had trouble convincing people it was worth taking seriously.

Since then, it has exploded (so to speak).

It was a privilege to be involved in the UK Parliament Defence Committee's outstanding inquiry.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 21

The Houthis are escalating their violence against ships - and seafarers.

Global shipping's defenders need help.

There's a global power that has a large navy and foreign-policy ambitions -- and a lot of seafarers now facing harm.

India.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/21/h...

Me @foreignpolicy.com

New Houthi Tactics Call for New, Non-Western Solutions

As Houthi attacks target Indian sailors, the Indian Navy has a chance to step up.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 18

Without the installers and repairers of subsea cables, modern life would not be possible.

(Imagine if cables were cut and no repair crews were available.)

But the workforce is ageing. Let's hope lots of people discover this crucial profession.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

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Sarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · Jan 24

Authorities in 🇫🇮 investigating the #EagleS said on Jan 23 they suspect the damage was done intentionally.

Lead investigator Risto Lohi: no difference of opinion between the National Bureau of Investigation and Finland’s intelligence services.

Investigation expected to run for several months.

Finnish investigators suspect Baltic Sea cable damage was intentional

A top official from Finland's National Bureau of Investigation is the latest to weigh in on whether the crew of the Eagle S intentionally dragged its anchor across a cable at the bottom of the Baltic ...

therecord.media

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Bert Huisman @berthuisman.bsky.social · Jan 24

This should make a good evening read!
#ShadowFleet

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jan 24

It's not just the shadow fleet and suspicious cable cuts: the global maritime order is under assault in myriad ways.

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's new report about it is now out atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... (written by yours truly).

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SkyTruth 🛰️ @skytruth.org · Feb 21

Thank you for sharing this story, @elisabethbraw.bsky.social

cc @bjornbergman.bsky.social

Feel free to reach out to us at [email protected] if you have any questions or a potential investigation to collaborate on!

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Joris Luyendijk @jorisluyendijk.bsky.social · Feb 21

this is a great piece, I wish the FT op-ed page had given it a big splash

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Feb 20

In the Baltic Sea (think shadow vessels and cable cuts), nations show they can look after themselves with minimal US involvement.

on.ft.com/4gR50RO (Me @financialtimes.com. No paywall)

Baltic self-sufficiency is a warning for Washington

Rendering US military support good-to-have rather than need-to-have will diminish America’s global influence

on.ft.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Feb 25

Taiwan has just caught a Chinese vessel *in the act of cutting an undersea cable*.

Great work by the Taiwanese authorities.

www.ft.com/content/eb4a...

Taiwan catches Chinese-owned ship in act of cutting subsea cable

Confrontation comes after Taipei launched crackdown on Beijing’s ‘shadow fleet’

www.ft.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Mar 26

Russia is now accusing Norway of militarising Svalbard (and thus violating the Svalbard Treaty).

It's complete bogus - but it could give Russia an excuse to retaliate against this Norwegian "infraction".

www.politico.eu/article/we-n... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall)

We need to pay closer attention to Svalbard

NATO members and other allies would do well to start thinking about how they’d respond if Russia took action against one of its most remote geographies.

www.politico.eu

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Mar 27

The EstLink 2 in the Gulf of Finland - damaged on Christmas Day by the Eagle S - is still out of service.

That's the harm damage to undersea interconnectors causes.

No wonder our adversaries seem interested in them.

www.ft.com/content/6c5c... (Me @financialtimes.com)

Subsea sabotage puts European power at risk

Interconnectors, which transmit electricity between countries, are even more difficult to repair than fibre optic cables

www.ft.com

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Adrian Monck @amonck.bsky.social · Mar 28

13/ The Atlantic Council’s @elisabethbraw.bsky.social diagnoses this strategy perfectly: “the Kremlin views the archipelago as a place to test new ways of asserting itself and undermining the West.” These tests are specifically designed to create cracks in alliance solidarity.

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A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · Mar 29

Subsea sabotage puts European power at risk—
A spectre is haunting international waters: the spectre of modern life suddenly ceasing because… www.ft.com/content/6c5c... @elisabethbraw.bsky.social @financial-times.bsky.social

Subsea sabotage puts European power at risk

Interconnectors, which transmit electricity between countries, are even more difficult to repair than fibre optic cables

www.ft.com

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Atlantic Council @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social · Apr 9

The United States discards nearly 7 million tons of e-waste each year.

“If the United States could marshal the rare earths sitting around in people’s homes and garbage cans, it could slash its dependence on China and create jobs at home,” argues @elisabethbraw.bsky.social in @foreignpolicy.com.

America Should Recycle Its Own Rare Earths, Not Grab Ukraine’s

Green measures at home beat bullying abroad.

foreignpolicy.com

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Mario Rustan @mariorustan.bsky.social · Apr 11

Have you heard this, @elisabethbraw.bsky.social ?
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

In a first, Taiwan charges Chinese ship captain with damaging undersea cables

Taiwan prosecutors on Friday for the first time charged a Chinese ship captain with intentionally damaging undersea cables off the island in February, after a rise in sea cable malfunctions alarmed Taiwan officials amid tensions with China.

www.reuters.com

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