Aubrey Clayton
@aubreyclayton.bsky.social
Author of Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science.
I write about statistics, history, and the history of statistics.
Opinions and Bayesian priors are my own.
He/him
I write about statistics, history, and the history of statistics.
Opinions and Bayesian priors are my own.
He/him
Update: I needed this to solve a problem, and in the course of that solution I also claimed that 219 is prime. Really showing off my math skills.
December 11, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Update: I needed this to solve a problem, and in the course of that solution I also claimed that 219 is prime. Really showing off my math skills.
Doing some advanced math today.
December 11, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Doing some advanced math today.
Chat is there a name for a crime committed while one is waging war? I feel like this may have come up
Q: If it's found that survivors were actually killed while clinging onto that boat, should Sec. Hegseth, Admiral Bradley, or others be punished?
TRUMP: I think you're gonna find that this is war. That these people were killing our people by the millions, actually.
TRUMP: I think you're gonna find that this is war. That these people were killing our people by the millions, actually.
December 3, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Chat is there a name for a crime committed while one is waging war? I feel like this may have come up
Trump's concern for "any President" is much like my 4-year-old asking if "people" are allowed to eat Halloween candy for breakfast.
December 1, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Trump's concern for "any President" is much like my 4-year-old asking if "people" are allowed to eat Halloween candy for breakfast.
Sometimes you meet the bar, and sometimes the bar meets you.
When a cancelled performer reënters the culture, we expect them to offer us a great work, channelling their newfound clarity into the finest art they’ve ever made. With his new comedy show and début novel, has Louis C.K. met the bar?
www.newyorker.com/culture/crit...
www.newyorker.com/culture/crit...
Louis C.K.’s Next Chapter
In a new standup special, and a début novel, the comedian navigates murky, post-#MeToo terrain: not quite exiled, not quite welcomed back.
www.newyorker.com
November 30, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Sometimes you meet the bar, and sometimes the bar meets you.
Real ones know that you only need to cook turkey to 165 if you're planning to eat it immediately at that temperature. Hold your bird at 150-155 for a few mins for juicy, bacteria-free results.
November 27, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Real ones know that you only need to cook turkey to 165 if you're planning to eat it immediately at that temperature. Hold your bird at 150-155 for a few mins for juicy, bacteria-free results.
It will be interesting to see who wins
pretty interesting ballgame they've got going on tonight
November 2, 2025 at 3:54 AM
It will be interesting to see who wins
Was reading the Wikipedia page for Nicolas Slonimsky and found this A+ cat name
October 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Was reading the Wikipedia page for Nicolas Slonimsky and found this A+ cat name
A fun number theory fact I learned recently from teaching: if n is a pseudoprime to base 2, then so is 2^n-1. It follows that there are infinitely many pseudoprimes!
October 24, 2025 at 4:09 PM
A fun number theory fact I learned recently from teaching: if n is a pseudoprime to base 2, then so is 2^n-1. It follows that there are infinitely many pseudoprimes!
Reposted by Aubrey Clayton
I saw a tragically AI-generated version of this poster, so I have recreated a 100% human-made version for all your protest sign needs.
October 18, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I saw a tragically AI-generated version of this poster, so I have recreated a 100% human-made version for all your protest sign needs.
As long as we all agree the best Bond movie is Casino Royale (1967)
as i watch it i really do think i prefer TOMORROW NEVER DIES to GOLDENEYE
October 16, 2025 at 2:56 AM
As long as we all agree the best Bond movie is Casino Royale (1967)
Reposted by Aubrey Clayton
Yesterday @aubreyclayton.bsky.social delivered a talk for the Ergodicity Economics seminar series. Aubrey shows how it is possible to derive the equations of probability without linking them to frequencies. A video of the talk is here: ergodicityeconomics.com/2025/10/01/6...
Ergodicity Economics
ergodicityeconomics.com
October 2, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Yesterday @aubreyclayton.bsky.social delivered a talk for the Ergodicity Economics seminar series. Aubrey shows how it is possible to derive the equations of probability without linking them to frequencies. A video of the talk is here: ergodicityeconomics.com/2025/10/01/6...
"Per the syllabus..."
September 24, 2025 at 3:37 AM
"Per the syllabus..."
Hard to believe he couldn't persuade more voters with his visionary platform of Bike Lanes Suck, and I'm Rich.
Josh Kraft, the nonprofit leader who sought to unseat Mayor Michelle Wu, said he was ending his bid for Boston mayor.
Josh Kraft drops out of race for Boston mayor - The Boston Globe
“When I kept looking at the next eight weeks, the negativity, and all that it was going to be about. I realized, wow, I can do more," Kraft said.
trib.al
September 12, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Hard to believe he couldn't persuade more voters with his visionary platform of Bike Lanes Suck, and I'm Rich.
Do you know how easy this is for me?
still funny this was the incredibly hard opening "theorem" of Good Will Hunting that shocked everyone about the "math magician"
September 7, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Do you know how easy this is for me?
Wasn't the fact that this is illegal a central plot point of Clear and Present Danger?
Q: On the Venezuela vessel strike, what legal authority were you guys working under?
JD VANCE: The legal authority is there are people who are bringing -- literal terrorists -- who are bringing deadly drugs into our country
JD VANCE: The legal authority is there are people who are bringing -- literal terrorists -- who are bringing deadly drugs into our country
September 4, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Wasn't the fact that this is illegal a central plot point of Clear and Present Danger?
Wishful thinking in the Boston public schools today (Tuesday, September 2nd)
September 2, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Wishful thinking in the Boston public schools today (Tuesday, September 2nd)
Fortunately for us all, teachers (even ex-military) do not have qualified immunity like police, and so the liability risk to schools from an armed teacher accidentally killing someone would be astronomical, to the point of making this a non-starter.
Trump on school shootings: "We have great teachers that love our children, and if you took a small percentage of those teachers that were in the military and you let them carry, that's something that a lot of people like. I sort of liked it."
September 2, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Fortunately for us all, teachers (even ex-military) do not have qualified immunity like police, and so the liability risk to schools from an armed teacher accidentally killing someone would be astronomical, to the point of making this a non-starter.
"He was second to Nolan Ryan in most strike-outs" is Randy Johnson erasure and will not be tolerated.
(Also Clemens was juiced to the gills)
(Also Clemens was juiced to the gills)
Trump is now trying to dictate who MLB inducts in the Hall of Fame
August 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
"He was second to Nolan Ryan in most strike-outs" is Randy Johnson erasure and will not be tolerated.
(Also Clemens was juiced to the gills)
(Also Clemens was juiced to the gills)
I have a hard time remembering which one is Amanda Knox, which one is Casey Anthony, and which one is Laci Peterson. It's just a haze of 2000s crime victims/accused perpetrators
Amanda Knox served as an executive producer on “The Twisted Tale of Amanda Knox,” an ambitious new Hulu mini-series that recounts her infamous international crime saga.
In ‘The Twisted Tale of Amanda Knox,’ Amanda Knox and Grace Van Patten Became One
Knox served as an executive producer on “The Twisted Tale of Amanda Knox,” an ambitious new Hulu mini-series that recounts her infamous international crime saga.
nyti.ms
August 18, 2025 at 10:18 PM
I have a hard time remembering which one is Amanda Knox, which one is Casey Anthony, and which one is Laci Peterson. It's just a haze of 2000s crime victims/accused perpetrators
I don't mean to brag, but my 4-year-olds are watching a cartoon intended for 7-year-olds due to "mild fantasy violence."
August 18, 2025 at 12:41 AM
I don't mean to brag, but my 4-year-olds are watching a cartoon intended for 7-year-olds due to "mild fantasy violence."
Reposted by Aubrey Clayton
#ICYMI: You can spot E.J. Antoni, Trump's pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief, in the crowd of Capitol rioters via our archive of 500+ Jan. 6 videos.
Watch him walk through the bottom of the screen starting at ~1:41 in this clip: projects.propublica.org/parler-capit...
Watch him walk through the bottom of the screen starting at ~1:41 in this clip: projects.propublica.org/parler-capit...
August 17, 2025 at 12:00 PM
#ICYMI: You can spot E.J. Antoni, Trump's pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief, in the crowd of Capitol rioters via our archive of 500+ Jan. 6 videos.
Watch him walk through the bottom of the screen starting at ~1:41 in this clip: projects.propublica.org/parler-capit...
Watch him walk through the bottom of the screen starting at ~1:41 in this clip: projects.propublica.org/parler-capit...
Reposted by Aubrey Clayton
Chrono Trigger's 30 years old you say? Time flies.
Timeless: A History of Chrono Trigger
How a Super Nintendo JRPG developed by a Dream Team of creators is still finding new fans 25 years later
medium.com
August 13, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Chrono Trigger's 30 years old you say? Time flies.
I understand why people compare our current political situation to Idiocracy—Trump is a buffoon, politics is dominated by entertainment, voters are ignorant, etc. But the movie is really quite a toxic eugenicist vision of the consequences of the wrong people breeding. Maybe watch something else?
a picture of a family tree with 25 years later written above it
Alt: A picture of a large family tree with 25 years later written above it from the movie Idiocracy
media.tenor.com
August 12, 2025 at 8:36 PM
I understand why people compare our current political situation to Idiocracy—Trump is a buffoon, politics is dominated by entertainment, voters are ignorant, etc. But the movie is really quite a toxic eugenicist vision of the consequences of the wrong people breeding. Maybe watch something else?
In fairness this is also what Lincoln would have wanted
Trump plans to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence—literally on Independence Day, July 4— by hosting a cage fight between two men at the White House time.com/7309114/ufc-...
White House to Hold UFC Fight on U.S.'s 250th Birthday
The event will be the first-ever professional mixed-martial arts fight at the White House.
time.com
August 12, 2025 at 8:09 PM
In fairness this is also what Lincoln would have wanted