Bob Wills
@bobwills.bsky.social
Reposted by Bob Wills
I very much prefer the lens of “the market thinks these cuts are being delivered to contribute to an environment in which nominal growth is seen as sufficiently stabilizing if not accelerating” to explain the price action
December 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
I very much prefer the lens of “the market thinks these cuts are being delivered to contribute to an environment in which nominal growth is seen as sufficiently stabilizing if not accelerating” to explain the price action
Reposted by Bob Wills
That said there are very high quality data sets on employment that don't rely on random samples: state-level unemployment claims data is totally independent of the feds (though Dept of Labor aggregates it) plus payroll tax roles (those are federal).
August 1, 2025 at 6:29 PM
That said there are very high quality data sets on employment that don't rely on random samples: state-level unemployment claims data is totally independent of the feds (though Dept of Labor aggregates it) plus payroll tax roles (those are federal).
Reposted by Bob Wills
I'm not technically an economist but as a financial markets professional I'm going to keep trusting them until there's evidence not to. That said, the odds that we will find evidence not to just went up significantly.
As an economist, will you trust any numbers going forward?
August 1, 2025 at 6:17 PM
I'm not technically an economist but as a financial markets professional I'm going to keep trusting them until there's evidence not to. That said, the odds that we will find evidence not to just went up significantly.
Reposted by Bob Wills
Asking the OpenAI Whisper audio model to transcribe 30 seconds of silence generates the output "ترجمة نانسي قنقر", which is "translation by Nancy Qanqar".
Nancy Qanqar is a volunteer translator of (among other things) many pirated movies, so that invites an interesting conclusion on data sources.
Nancy Qanqar is a volunteer translator of (among other things) many pirated movies, so that invites an interesting conclusion on data sources.
July 22, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Asking the OpenAI Whisper audio model to transcribe 30 seconds of silence generates the output "ترجمة نانسي قنقر", which is "translation by Nancy Qanqar".
Nancy Qanqar is a volunteer translator of (among other things) many pirated movies, so that invites an interesting conclusion on data sources.
Nancy Qanqar is a volunteer translator of (among other things) many pirated movies, so that invites an interesting conclusion on data sources.
Reposted by Bob Wills
friendly reminder Luke publishes interesting and though provoking research every day at sherwood.news (and is way underfollowed)
not that crazy tbh, this is adjusted for weekends and holidays
July 14, 2025 at 2:47 PM
friendly reminder Luke publishes interesting and though provoking research every day at sherwood.news (and is way underfollowed)
*TRUMP TARIFFS CAN STAY IN PLACE LONGER, US APPEALS COURT SAYS
June 11, 2025 at 12:22 AM
*TRUMP TARIFFS CAN STAY IN PLACE LONGER, US APPEALS COURT SAYS
*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS BLOCKED BY US TRADE COURT
May 28, 2025 at 11:20 PM
*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS BLOCKED BY US TRADE COURT
*SUPREME COURT SAYS AGENCY LEADER RULING DOESN'T APPLY TO FED
*SUPREME COURT BACKS TRUMP'S OUSTER OF AGENCY LEADERS FOR NOW
May 22, 2025 at 8:44 PM
*SUPREME COURT SAYS AGENCY LEADER RULING DOESN'T APPLY TO FED
*SUPREME COURT BACKS TRUMP'S OUSTER OF AGENCY LEADERS FOR NOW
May 22, 2025 at 8:42 PM
*SUPREME COURT BACKS TRUMP'S OUSTER OF AGENCY LEADERS FOR NOW
Reposted by Bob Wills
Now that it’s over, I think we need to discuss how lame “May the 4th be with you” is
May 5, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Now that it’s over, I think we need to discuss how lame “May the 4th be with you” is
*WARREN BUFFETT TO STEP DOWN AS BERKSHIRE CEO AT YEAR-END
May 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM
*WARREN BUFFETT TO STEP DOWN AS BERKSHIRE CEO AT YEAR-END
Reposted by Bob Wills
bitcoin acting more like gold than high beta nasdaq is a bad sign
April 21, 2025 at 9:21 AM
bitcoin acting more like gold than high beta nasdaq is a bad sign
Reposted by Bob Wills
Watched that. Remembered this.
April 16, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Watched that. Remembered this.
*FED READY TO HELP STABILIZE MARKET, FED'S COLLINS SAYS: FT
April 11, 2025 at 5:40 PM
*FED READY TO HELP STABILIZE MARKET, FED'S COLLINS SAYS: FT
*EURO SURGES AS MUCH AS 1.6% AMID BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS
April 11, 2025 at 12:34 AM
*EURO SURGES AS MUCH AS 1.6% AMID BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS
*SUPREME COURT SAYS US MUST SEEK RETURN OF WRONGLY DEPORTED MAN
April 10, 2025 at 10:39 PM
*SUPREME COURT SAYS US MUST SEEK RETURN OF WRONGLY DEPORTED MAN
*GOLDMAN SACHS RESCINDS RECESSION CALL AFTER TRUMP TARIFF PAUSE
April 9, 2025 at 6:39 PM
*GOLDMAN SACHS RESCINDS RECESSION CALL AFTER TRUMP TARIFF PAUSE
Reposted by Bob Wills
Hatzius: We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%
April 7, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Hatzius: We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%
Reposted by Bob Wills
Bessent's macro fund returns absolutely sucked shit (unlike, as a random example, Steve Mnuchin's successful turnaround of OneWest) and now everyone in the world is learning why
Bessent: "One of the messages that I'd like to get out tonight is everybody sit back, take a deep breath, don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes. Because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation."
April 3, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Bessent's macro fund returns absolutely sucked shit (unlike, as a random example, Steve Mnuchin's successful turnaround of OneWest) and now everyone in the world is learning why
GS: >26b shares traded across all US exchanges. The previous record of 23.67b shares made on 1/27/21 during GME mayhem
April 4, 2025 at 8:36 PM
GS: >26b shares traded across all US exchanges. The previous record of 23.67b shares made on 1/27/21 during GME mayhem