Johann Huntera
@chattwjonathan.bsky.social
Meteorologist & car safety systems. husband, father, Chattahooligan. He/him
Retweets are only endorsements if weather. You can like bad weather posts, it doesn't make you a bad person
Retweets are only endorsements if weather. You can like bad weather posts, it doesn't make you a bad person
Closer to midnight
January 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM
Closer to midnight
When the lake effect snow heads towards South Bend or the other southern areas off Lake Michigan, it has a much longer "fetch" across the Lake. More moisture, more potential temperature both lead to more accumulation in a narrower band.
When it comes straight south it get's really wild.
When it comes straight south it get's really wild.
January 21, 2026 at 10:03 PM
When the lake effect snow heads towards South Bend or the other southern areas off Lake Michigan, it has a much longer "fetch" across the Lake. More moisture, more potential temperature both lead to more accumulation in a narrower band.
When it comes straight south it get's really wild.
When it comes straight south it get's really wild.
When these get closer to the event, they'll get more technical into details of why they're leaning one way or another - and the degree of reading goes up a lot, which is why I think they don't advertise them more.
January 21, 2026 at 9:37 PM
When these get closer to the event, they'll get more technical into details of why they're leaning one way or another - and the degree of reading goes up a lot, which is why I think they don't advertise them more.
Exactly. Worst case is that I have a shovel now!
We're still stuck in the cold pattern after this is over. There's been echos on the longer runs of another end of month potential in the Southeast. We'll see!
We're still stuck in the cold pattern after this is over. There's been echos on the longer runs of another end of month potential in the Southeast. We'll see!
January 21, 2026 at 9:35 PM
Exactly. Worst case is that I have a shovel now!
We're still stuck in the cold pattern after this is over. There's been echos on the longer runs of another end of month potential in the Southeast. We'll see!
We're still stuck in the cold pattern after this is over. There's been echos on the longer runs of another end of month potential in the Southeast. We'll see!
It honestly wasn't so bad. Maybe those weather apps are okay, downplaying risk to allow me to shop
January 21, 2026 at 8:19 PM
It honestly wasn't so bad. Maybe those weather apps are okay, downplaying risk to allow me to shop
Great 1-minute spot!
January 21, 2026 at 7:12 PM
Great 1-minute spot!
Best I can do is Olympic National Park and that's not until next month.
January 21, 2026 at 7:09 PM
Best I can do is Olympic National Park and that's not until next month.
Still some models that give us snow. Many more like freezing rain at this point.
January 21, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Still some models that give us snow. Many more like freezing rain at this point.
This is IRL of course, not on here. You folks are gems and don't you forget it.
I'm not sure which app is delivering this particular forecast, but let me just reiterate, "fuck your weather app"
I'm not sure which app is delivering this particular forecast, but let me just reiterate, "fuck your weather app"
January 21, 2026 at 4:51 PM
This is IRL of course, not on here. You folks are gems and don't you forget it.
I'm not sure which app is delivering this particular forecast, but let me just reiterate, "fuck your weather app"
I'm not sure which app is delivering this particular forecast, but let me just reiterate, "fuck your weather app"
Haha, I just simultaneously got a text from my wife that I have one to pick up now.
January 21, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Haha, I just simultaneously got a text from my wife that I have one to pick up now.
They start initializing with data from 12z, so first the data is imported from the important readings that take place at that hour and then they get started.
These are great questions
These are great questions
January 21, 2026 at 4:20 PM
They start initializing with data from 12z, so first the data is imported from the important readings that take place at that hour and then they get started.
These are great questions
These are great questions
Yes, that's correct in this case.
January 21, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Yes, that's correct in this case.
For the major models, yes. 12z GFS is up and running. 12z ECMWF will start soon.
January 21, 2026 at 4:12 PM
For the major models, yes. 12z GFS is up and running. 12z ECMWF will start soon.
It's a miracle of modern weather modeling that we have this much confidence in what will happen this weekend.
Even 20 years ago, we would just now be gaining confidence, and we certainly would be hard pressed to identify if we were getting ice up until 24hrs out.
Even 20 years ago, we would just now be gaining confidence, and we certainly would be hard pressed to identify if we were getting ice up until 24hrs out.
January 21, 2026 at 2:43 PM
It's a miracle of modern weather modeling that we have this much confidence in what will happen this weekend.
Even 20 years ago, we would just now be gaining confidence, and we certainly would be hard pressed to identify if we were getting ice up until 24hrs out.
Even 20 years ago, we would just now be gaining confidence, and we certainly would be hard pressed to identify if we were getting ice up until 24hrs out.
Reposted by Johann Huntera
My morning first-takeaway is higher confidence in freezing rain for Chattanooga. I'm still working through digesting what that will exactly mean.
Not a great update.
Not a great update.
January 21, 2026 at 2:30 PM
My morning first-takeaway is higher confidence in freezing rain for Chattanooga. I'm still working through digesting what that will exactly mean.
Not a great update.
Not a great update.