Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me)
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
December 22, 2025 at 11:42 AM
For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me)
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
2 topics:
- what to do when the next large negative shock hits
- how to communicate uncertainty
niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
The economy is 7.4 per cent better than BoE expected in Nov 2022
December 12, 2025 at 11:25 AM
The economy is 7.4 per cent better than BoE expected in Nov 2022
Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small)
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
November 26, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small)
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
on.ft.com/4onEnYK
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
November 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
November 17, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
November 14, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
4 questions:
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
November 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
4 questions:
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
November 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
October 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
But this sort of chart grossly exagerates the truth
This is a better way - click on the link to see the other G7
This is a better way - click on the link to see the other G7
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
But this sort of chart grossly exagerates the truth
This is a better way - click on the link to see the other G7
This is a better way - click on the link to see the other G7
The Fed has been seen as influencing other countries' 10Y government borrowing costs.
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
The Fed has been seen as influencing other countries' 10Y government borrowing costs.
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
October 23, 2025 at 11:33 AM
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
October 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
At least we're not in the complacency zone where the IMF was in April 2006
October 21, 2025 at 12:49 PM
At least we're not in the complacency zone where the IMF was in April 2006
There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
October 21, 2025 at 12:49 PM
There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried
Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been.....
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
October 16, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been.....
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
..... flat
So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting
This is what you requested...
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
October 16, 2025 at 11:31 AM
This is what you requested...
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
October 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
My newsletter is on the paradox of the resilient and fragile global economy.
Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much
How does that work?
www.ft.com/content/ac92...
Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much
How does that work?
www.ft.com/content/ac92...
October 14, 2025 at 3:24 PM
My newsletter is on the paradox of the resilient and fragile global economy.
Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much
How does that work?
www.ft.com/content/ac92...
Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much
How does that work?
www.ft.com/content/ac92...
1) good question - looks like something not quite right
2) It has been bad (but others can be worse) - look at inflation rates post referendum and the change from pre 2016
2) It has been bad (but others can be worse) - look at inflation rates post referendum and the change from pre 2016
October 7, 2025 at 12:10 PM
1) good question - looks like something not quite right
2) It has been bad (but others can be worse) - look at inflation rates post referendum and the change from pre 2016
2) It has been bad (but others can be worse) - look at inflation rates post referendum and the change from pre 2016
Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid...
My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation
www.ft.com/content/de31...
My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation
www.ft.com/content/de31...
October 7, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid...
My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation
www.ft.com/content/de31...
My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation
www.ft.com/content/de31...