Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
Reposted by Chris Giles
New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL
November 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM
New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL
My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
We should abolish juries because
1. The don't give reasons
2. There is little evidence of their competence
3. We don't use them outside a narrow area of the criminal law, other jurisdictions don't use them and are perfectly just
/1
1. The don't give reasons
2. There is little evidence of their competence
3. We don't use them outside a narrow area of the criminal law, other jurisdictions don't use them and are perfectly just
/1
November 25, 2025 at 7:45 PM
My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards
Reposted by Chris Giles
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
November 19, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
November 19, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Very irritating quiz
I failed to get them all right
I failed to get them all right
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
November 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills.
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation.
on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics
Reposted by Chris Giles
We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood')
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
November 18, 2025 at 12:13 PM
We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood')
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
November 17, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data.
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
November 14, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...
Is the age of central bank independence under threat?
YouTube video by Chatham House
www.youtube.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...
This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...
The truth about the UK economy in 2025
It is not the story that the chancellor would like to tell you
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...
TBH
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
November 14, 2025 at 8:52 AM
TBH
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement.
That is a big “if” though.
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...
4 questions:
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
November 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
4 questions:
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
- Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)?
- Should the Fed talk about driving in fog?
- Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics?
- Is the Eurozone in a good place?
My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...
Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
What economics gets wrong about human behaviour, with Richard Thaler
The founding father of behavioural economics on why we still make bad decisions
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
- I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else)
www.ft.com/content/c0f7...
Today seems a good day to repost this.
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
November 5, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Today seems a good day to repost this.
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment
And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
November 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation.
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
October 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
Reposted by Chris Giles
Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social
October 29, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social
It's beautiful...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
The bridge that bursts Britain’s public spending myths
Investment is a long game that does not transform the immediate growth outlook, and cuts are difficult
www.ft.com
October 29, 2025 at 5:55 PM
It's beautiful...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth
www.ft.com/content/f086...
Reposted by Chris Giles
"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 2:04 PM
"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."
I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 6:12 PM
I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
October 23, 2025 at 11:33 AM
At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected
www.ft.com/content/9985...
Reposted by Chris Giles
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
October 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
... this is one of those times
www.ft.com/content/7ad4...
A boring UK Budget interest rate primer....
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
October 22, 2025 at 4:26 PM
A boring UK Budget interest rate primer....
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)
... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)