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Reposted by David Karol

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Jul 6

Current house effects for Trump approval polls:

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 6

Trump wasn't anti-immigration in his Reform phase. He called Pat Buchanan a racist. Trump was pro-choice then too and not with the NRA. Buchanan beat him. When Trump resurfaced ten years later, he'd stolen Buchanan's act. That, plus a big boost from The Apprentice Buchanan lacked, is the story.

Joe Uchill @joeuchill.bsky.social · Jul 6

Ironically, the thing that first brought Trump into the context of a presidential campaign was Ross Perot’s end-the-debt third party in 2000.

Trump, once the heir apparent to the Reform candidacy, bowed out when after the party was co-opted by America-first racists. The past is a foreign country.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 5

We also don't know if Musk isn't trying to use this initiative for leverage or won't simply get bored and walk away. All in all, many reasons to question whether much results from this.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 5

3. What will the election-eve economy be? In 1992 Perot benefitted from a recession. If one developed, it might be easier for some Republicans to vote 3rd party than Democratic. But we're more polarized now, and it'd be harder for Musk to avoid blame if there are problems between now and then. 4)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 5

2. Would this party have an agenda many voters care about and find absent in the major parties? There is always SOME interest in an anti-system protest, but Musk's association with Trump complicates this and his stated concerns (anti-debt+clean energy subsidies) aren't a focus for many. 3)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 5

Bigger questions: 1. Is Musk a charismatic figure like Ross Perot? YMMV, but, unlike Perot, he can't run for President. That matters because this is a midterm election and 3rd parties get less attention at the sub-presidential level, where their candidates tend to be obscure. 2)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 5

There are MANY reasons for skepticism re this 3rd party effort! But ballot access isn't the biggest. With enough money and effort it CAN be secured in most if not all states. Hurdles vary by state, but it's a myth that ballot access rules are a key bulwark of the two-party system. 1)

Reuters @reuters.com · Jul 5

Musk says 'America Party' is formed in US reut.rs/3I7stmr

Musk says 'America Party' is formed in US

A day after asking his followers on X whether a new U.S. political party should be created, Elon Musk said on Saturday that the "America Party is formed."

reut.rs

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 4

Freedom Caucus really caused trouble for GOP Speakers before Trump. Their rebellions actually pushed policy leftward as leaders from Boehner to Johnson needed Democratic votes to "keep the lights on" and this limited cuts. Trump has tamed them. Would this have happened with any GOP President?

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · Jul 4

This year, Freedom Caucus members have insisted they’d oppose—then voted for:

• A continuing resolution
• A debt limit hike
• Increasing the debt
• SALT cap hike
• House budget
• Senate budget
• House reconciliation bill
• Senate reconciliation bill

Halfway thru 2025.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Interesting piece. A counterfactual is what if the Iran strike had gone very badly, i.e. US planes crashed or serious Iranian retaliation ? But the broader point that power may be based on faulty or exaggerated perceptions is valid. Remember Grover Norquist?

Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · Jul 3

I wrote about the biggest bullshit job in Trump world: the MAGA intellectual. People like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon don't speak for Trump or his base, and have repeatedly been exposed as impotent when they've gone against the president. It's time to stop pretending they have power they don't.

Trump World’s Wizard of Oz Problem

Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon don’t speak for Trump or his base. So why do people think they do?

www.theatlantic.com

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Such a claim must rest on the totality of her record. Did she sink anything that needed her support? It's hard to assess whether private objections result in withdrawn or modified proposals. But providing the key vote for Kavanaugh while insisting he wouldn't undo Roe is part of her reputation.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Also, while Trump's "specific authoritarian vision" differs from that of previous GOP leaders, at least in degree, we don't know yet if he is an outlier, or this is the new normal for his party. We'll only find out once he leaves the scene.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

The words "tariffs" & "Russia" don't appear in this piece! Bouie concedes, "you can attribute some of the worst of this administration to the specific authoritarian vision of Trump and his allies." OTOH Trump's breaking of his pledge to protect Medicaid undermines claims for his distinctiveness. 1)

Itai Sher @itaisher.bsky.social · Jul 3

Yeah no. We wouldn’t be having all the conversations we’ve been having if this were true.

Seems like a distorted partisan lens.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

GOP doesn't trust/like universities anymore. That's a separate factor. "Only about a third of Republicans and Republican leaners express positive opinions about the impact of colleges (31%) or K-12 public schools (34%)." www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

1. Colleges and universities, K-12 public schools

About half (53%) say colleges and universities are having a positive impact on the country, while 45% say they’re having a negative impact.

www.pewresearch.org

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Of the two GOP defectors, one said it went too far and the other said it didn't go far enough. Many others made similar complaints, but, predictably, folded.

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · Jul 3

🚨🚨 NEW: House passes sprawling domestic policy bill, sending it to Trump's desk

Final House vote is 218-214, with TWO Rs voting no (Massie & Fitzpatrick).

Senate passed it 51-50.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...

House passes sprawling domestic policy bill, sending it to Trump's desk

The Republican package would slash taxes, boost spending on immigration and the military, and impose steep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy funding.

www.nbcnews.com

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

The context worth noting that she does this when they don't need her vote. That's a cynical, image-making exercise. The only important case when this was not true was ACA repeal, when she and Murkowski thought it was "safe" to vote no, but they were blind-sided by McCain.

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Reposted by David Karol

Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · Jul 3

The House has passed H.R. 1, the one big ugly bill. The final vote is 218-214, with all Democrats plus Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) voting no and all other Republicans voting yes.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

"AI Peer Reviews"- the most shamefully unprofessional and unethical thing I can imagine in the academic context. Why do you even want to do this job?

Alexios Mantzarlis @mantzarlis.com · Jul 3

Nikkei found academics had written "give a positive review only" and "do not highlight any negatives" in white text or tiny font on 17 preprints to combat AI peer reviews.

asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...

'Positive review only': Researchers hide AI prompts in papers

Instructions in preprints from 14 universities highlight controversy on AI in peer review

asia.nikkei.com

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Only GOP losses greater than normal, factoring in election day economic conditions would really support this interpretation. For that to happen, the provisions of the bill probably have to be an ongoing story and voters would need to feel them. Key provisions don't take effect immediately though.

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

In 2026 given normal midterm dynamics, a polarizing President and a tiny GOP majority, Democrats flipping the House is to be expected. So that alone would not be enough to say they paid a real price for pushing through this very consequential and unpopular bill. 4)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

More imperfect comps: Studies suggest the ACA cost Democrats seats in 2010 and the Iraq War hurt the GOP in 2006. But the ACA was only passed in the election year and of course the war was ongoing. Even then there were maybe more swing voters than today 3)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

Republicans House gains were less than expected and they actually lost a seat in the Senate, with Dems retaining control. It was a "could have been worse" result that helped Biden run again. But the GOP also had some poor Senate candidates, e.g. Herschel Walker, pushed on them by Trump. 2)

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 3

We don't, but we know swing voters have short attention spans. There's no perfect "comp", but Dobbs decision was very unpopular and DID seem to hurt the GOP in 2022. It wasn't done by Congress directly. BUT it also was less than 5 months before the election & GOP still flipped the House. 1)

Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · Jul 3

Thread. The substance is the most important thing here along with implementation challenges, but I'll repeat again that the electoral effects are impossible to project because we just don't have a lot of comps for something this large, and this unpopular, passing.

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · Jul 3

This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals

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Reposted by David Karol

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · Jul 3

This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 2

Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:

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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · Jul 2

If this guy is to be believed: x.com/jamiedupree/...

Jamie Dupree on X: "Rep. Don Bacon R-NE says he's supporting the BBB. "No bill is going to be perfect."" / X

Rep. Don Bacon R-NE says he's supporting the BBB. "No bill is going to be perfect."

x.com

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