Dj
@djsoke.bsky.social
NYC results should get certified during this meeting, so we’ll finally get all the outstanding votes
November 30, 2025 at 2:39 PM
NYC results should get certified during this meeting, so we’ll finally get all the outstanding votes
to correct for county level differences, i separated out each county just to see what was going on within the county
Here i've combined the 11 smallest counties for brevity, but they all looked roughly like that
in rurals and in davidson, the more dem the precinct, the higher the relative turnout
Here i've combined the 11 smallest counties for brevity, but they all looked roughly like that
in rurals and in davidson, the more dem the precinct, the higher the relative turnout
November 29, 2025 at 2:50 AM
to correct for county level differences, i separated out each county just to see what was going on within the county
Here i've combined the 11 smallest counties for brevity, but they all looked roughly like that
in rurals and in davidson, the more dem the precinct, the higher the relative turnout
Here i've combined the 11 smallest counties for brevity, but they all looked roughly like that
in rurals and in davidson, the more dem the precinct, the higher the relative turnout
Was really struggling with getting swims in bc of my health for the previous few months so it was nice to get some continuous distance in
My backstroke pace was pretty heinous but overall satisfied given the composition of stroke
My backstroke pace was pretty heinous but overall satisfied given the composition of stroke
November 28, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Was really struggling with getting swims in bc of my health for the previous few months so it was nice to get some continuous distance in
My backstroke pace was pretty heinous but overall satisfied given the composition of stroke
My backstroke pace was pretty heinous but overall satisfied given the composition of stroke
Honestly one of my better swims in a hot minute 🫡
unfortunately I did lose track and accidentally do a 25 breast instead of back so the aesthetic is ruined 😐
unfortunately I did lose track and accidentally do a 25 breast instead of back so the aesthetic is ruined 😐
November 28, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Honestly one of my better swims in a hot minute 🫡
unfortunately I did lose track and accidentally do a 25 breast instead of back so the aesthetic is ruined 😐
unfortunately I did lose track and accidentally do a 25 breast instead of back so the aesthetic is ruined 😐
heated rivalry premiered too late for me last night but here we go 🙂↕️
November 28, 2025 at 12:29 PM
heated rivalry premiered too late for me last night but here we go 🙂↕️
was several % bluer on monday, but today it's ~1% bluer geographically
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
November 27, 2025 at 3:28 AM
was several % bluer on monday, but today it's ~1% bluer geographically
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
the 2022 total vote comp is extremely similar to the 2024 total vote comp, just like the EVs are similar, only offset
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
November 27, 2025 at 3:22 AM
the 2022 total vote comp is extremely similar to the 2024 total vote comp, just like the EVs are similar, only offset
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
November 27, 2025 at 2:58 AM
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
November 27, 2025 at 2:51 AM
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
November 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
I started these yearly posts in 2023 to force myself to be positive after a brutal year recovering from surgery, but I’ve never shown that recovery
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 PM
I started these yearly posts in 2023 to force myself to be positive after a brutal year recovering from surgery, but I’ve never shown that recovery
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
so it turns out many of the precincts are just missing from the data (including on the visual)
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
November 24, 2025 at 2:20 AM
so it turns out many of the precincts are just missing from the data (including on the visual)
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
November 23, 2025 at 4:52 PM
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Here's the county table sorted by composition of primary vote
November 23, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Here's the county table sorted by composition of primary vote
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
November 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
November 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
November 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
Not only did cheatham say “only three hours of voting today” they also said you only get two locations too
Why are they like this lol
Why are they like this lol
November 23, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Not only did cheatham say “only three hours of voting today” they also said you only get two locations too
Why are they like this lol
Why are they like this lol
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
November 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…
November 22, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…