Votehub’s county graph is as a share of EV, it’s just the precinct data that’s a share of total votes

No, but fortunately because the early vote was such a high share of total votes (esp in a place like Williamson >80% of total votes were EV) there is still some value here

Even though comparing ev to ev would obv be much better

in williamson Ds might have a tiny edge if you squint, but largely there is no correlation

in montgomery the more republican precincts are at a higher share of 2024

the 2022 comparisons look identical, the numbers on the y axis are just shifted

to correct for county level differences, i separated out each county just to see what was going on within the county

Here i've combined the 11 smallest counties for brevity, but they all looked roughly like that

in rurals and in davidson, the more dem the precinct, the higher the relative turnout

I went in and did each county individually and Dems seem to have significant turnout advantages in every county except for Montgomery and Williamson

Was really struggling with getting swims in bc of my health for the previous few months so it was nice to get some continuous distance in

My backstroke pace was pretty heinous but overall satisfied given the composition of stroke

just this once 🙂‍↕️

Tennessee doesn’t have partisan registration at all

Overall the info we have is a lot worse than in VA/NJ

Rurals largely did very well even with the reduced hours

Davidson was actually #9 (of 14) in terms of % of the primary’s final day despite all the other counties having much larger reductions in hours

I don’t even think Davidson did bad the rest of the district just did surprisingly well

was several % bluer on monday, but today it's ~1% bluer geographically

but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent

Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters

interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary

the 2022 total vote comp is extremely similar to the 2024 total vote comp, just like the EVs are similar, only offset

top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total

2022 is the bottom left graph and the far right column

I expected a much larger relative gap given the difference in hours

The last two days combined in Davidson were below the district’s overall in %22 %24 and %primary

Which is surprising when Davidson had a half day over everyone else

With the context of full CD turnout, Davidson’s number today is really uninspiring

Overall EV turnout still shows a Dem turnout edge but I was expecting a much bigger gap today