Iran with nuclear weapons is clearly dangerous and raises risks for everyone. That said, I find it odd how many people are so confident about how this war would play out - both in US politics and in the region over time. So far, I haven’t seen a realistic/clear roadmap

Worth noting how far right MAGA US intellectuals often now claim that Canadian national identity is fake and Mexicans are not capable of managing a state.

All reminiscent of the predominant narratives in Russia claiming that Ukrainian identity does not exist and Kazakhs are incapable of statehood

What we’re witnessing in America is what happens when disordered discourse captures a political party, then the state itself. The Republican Party was the first to fall - abandoning truth for conspiracy, ideology for grievance, and policy for performative outrage.

Whether they sound like doves or sound like hawks, the first thing to keep in mind about the Trump administration is that it is led by incoherent fools that are incapable of formulating anything close to a strategy

They'd never get more than 10% of their gas from Soviet Union. By 2021 it was 50% from USSR/legal successor state. Not one of our 6 subsequent wars changed the "change thru trade" mantra.

Trade did cause a change. You are becoming more like us.

1/ Let's talk about rule of law versus rule by law.

Rule of law is the legal system that applies in democratic states, and is foundational to democracy. It holds that the law is the supreme authority to which everyone, including government officials, is subject.

In 2015, Russia dramatically entered the Syrian war, firing missiles from the Caspian Sea and launching airstrikes. The display was meant to herald Moscow's resurgence as a global power capable of projecting force across the globe. After nearly a decade of effort, they lost

Al Qaeda back in 2003 recruiting some random 20 year old dude from Syria to be a fighter in Iraq

With Russia's budget deficit at 3.3 trillion rubles, 21% key interest rate and 2-3 million job vacancies, Russia has to choose between hyperinflation or an economic freeze, says Vladimir Milov, former Deputy Minister of Energy in an interview with Frontelligence Insight

🧵Thread:

Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight

(Don't forget to like, share, and follow for more updates and imagery)

🧵Thread:

We leveled your cities, carried out mass executions of civilians and POWs, denied your nationhood and language, denied your agency to conduct foreign policy, and invaded you twice. But if you downsize your army and become neutral, we promise we won't touch you again, trust me bro

- Russia has been striking Ukraine for two years with nuclear-capable weapons, incl. ballistic ones (Kinzhal)
- Nonetheless, use of a novel delivery system is likely a signal of escalation
- If RS-26 was used then it would be such a novel system. Whether it’s an IRBM or ICBM is subject to debate.