David Beard
@dwbeard.bsky.social
Co-host of The Downballot podcast and contributing editor at The Downballot. Labor staffer, he/him 🏳️🌈
Reposted by David Beard
The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be.
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
GOP in disarray after Tennessee special
Listen now | And Lou Jacobson explains the Almanac of American Politics
www.the-downballot.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be.
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
Given what we’ve seen, Behn should win the early vote in total, but we know the E-Day vote will shift red so the question is by how much and is there any differential turnout between rural and non-rural counties
December 3, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Given what we’ve seen, Behn should win the early vote in total, but we know the E-Day vote will shift red so the question is by how much and is there any differential turnout between rural and non-rural counties
Reposted by David Beard
While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy.
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
November 21, 2025 at 1:46 AM
While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy.
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
Reposted by David Beard
People coming to bluesky because twitter is broke
November 18, 2025 at 12:58 PM
People coming to bluesky because twitter is broke
Reposted by David Beard
We've got a jam-packed podcast this week!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling
Listen now | And a deep dive into New Hampshire politics with Chris Galdieri
www.the-downballot.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:48 PM
We've got a jam-packed podcast this week!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
Warner is obviously a no because he's up for re-election next year - I'd be surprised if any 2026ers running again vote for it
November 10, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Warner is obviously a no because he's up for re-election next year - I'd be surprised if any 2026ers running again vote for it
Every shutdown fight ends the same way (moderates concede with little to show to outrage from the base) b/c their very existence is an error in how the fed government runs. Dems are the opposition, they should not be forced to vote for legislation for the GOP-led government to function.
November 10, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Every shutdown fight ends the same way (moderates concede with little to show to outrage from the base) b/c their very existence is an error in how the fed government runs. Dems are the opposition, they should not be forced to vote for legislation for the GOP-led government to function.
Reposted by David Beard
I loved this observation/conversation between the Davids on this week’s @the-downballot.com podcast.
Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.
Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.
November 6, 2025 at 10:39 PM
I loved this observation/conversation between the Davids on this week’s @the-downballot.com podcast.
Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.
Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.
Reposted by David Beard
If you haven’t listened to the Downballot recap yet did the election even happen ?
New podcast episode! We dive *deep* into every important theme and takeaway we could think of for Tuesday's extraordinary elections—including how Latino voters moved back to Dems, why normies are showing far more spine than elites, and what it all means for 2026.
It's a great listen—check it out!
It's a great listen—check it out!
Holy crap, what an election!
Listen now | What the heck just happened, and what does it all mean? We've gotchu!
www.the-downballot.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
If you haven’t listened to the Downballot recap yet did the election even happen ?
Reposted by David Beard
VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends
November 4, 2025 at 11:42 AM
VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends
This is a pretty enormous if! www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/w...
November 4, 2025 at 8:00 PM
This is a pretty enormous if! www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/w...
Reposted by David Beard
Stoked to see all the love @gelliottmorris.com is getting today—and that's precisely why we're joining forces to cover tonight's election results on our livestream!
Join us at 7 PM ET for The Downballot's collab with Strength In Numbers. It's the best coverage you'll find anywhere!
Join us at 7 PM ET for The Downballot's collab with Strength In Numbers. It's the best coverage you'll find anywhere!
LIVE SOON: Election night live coverage, with The Downballot & Strength In Numbers
Starting Nov 4 at 7:00 PM EST
open.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Stoked to see all the love @gelliottmorris.com is getting today—and that's precisely why we're joining forces to cover tonight's election results on our livestream!
Join us at 7 PM ET for The Downballot's collab with Strength In Numbers. It's the best coverage you'll find anywhere!
Join us at 7 PM ET for The Downballot's collab with Strength In Numbers. It's the best coverage you'll find anywhere!
Reposted by David Beard
And join us tomorrow night starting at 7 PM ET for our livestream coverage of all the results with @davidnir.com and @dwbeard.bsky.social of The Downballot and @gelliottmorris.com of Strength In Numbers!
LIVE SOON: Election night live coverage, with The Downballot & Strength In Numbers
Starting Nov 4 at 7:00 PM EST
open.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
And join us tomorrow night starting at 7 PM ET for our livestream coverage of all the results with @davidnir.com and @dwbeard.bsky.social of The Downballot and @gelliottmorris.com of Strength In Numbers!
Reposted by David Beard
We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025.
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
The Downballot's 2025 election preview
We go way beyond Virginia and New Jersey to spotlight dozens of races nationwide
www.the-downballot.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025.
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
I promise you that @gelliottmorris.com @davidnir.com and I will be better on The Downballot’s livestream than this
Congrats to Ben Shapiro on his new CNN gig! variety.com/2025/tv/news...
CNN Election Night Surprise: Streaming-Only Live-Cast With Harry Enten, Charlamagne tha God, Ben Shapiro
CNN's Election Night coverage will include a streaming-only live cast led by Harry Enten and featuring guests like Charlamagne tha God and Ben Shapiro
variety.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:32 AM
I promise you that @gelliottmorris.com @davidnir.com and I will be better on The Downballot’s livestream than this
Reposted by David Beard
Election Day is finally here, so that means we’re previewing all of the top races on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in CA, NJ & VA, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like GA, ME & PA.
Listen below!
Listen below!
Our jam-packed election night preview!
Listen now | We've got the lowdown on all the top races from coast to coast
www.the-downballot.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Election Day is finally here, so that means we’re previewing all of the top races on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in CA, NJ & VA, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like GA, ME & PA.
Listen below!
Listen below!
Reposted by David Beard
It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contest—aka the babka contest—is back!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Enter The Downballot's 2025 prediction contest, sponsored by GreensBabka.com!
To the victors go the spoils!
www.the-downballot.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:51 PM
It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contest—aka the babka contest—is back!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Reposted by David Beard
Politically, the landscape is shifting too:
🔴 Nearly all platforms have become more Republican
🔵 But they remain Democratic-leaning overall
🏃♂️ Democrats are fleeing to smaller platforms (Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon)
🔴 Nearly all platforms have become more Republican
🔵 But they remain Democratic-leaning overall
🏃♂️ Democrats are fleeing to smaller platforms (Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon)
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Politically, the landscape is shifting too:
🔴 Nearly all platforms have become more Republican
🔵 But they remain Democratic-leaning overall
🏃♂️ Democrats are fleeing to smaller platforms (Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon)
🔴 Nearly all platforms have become more Republican
🔵 But they remain Democratic-leaning overall
🏃♂️ Democrats are fleeing to smaller platforms (Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon)
Reposted by David Beard
Is social media dying? How much has Twitter changed as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation?
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has transformed.
Here are the key take-aways 🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2510.25417
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has transformed.
Here are the key take-aways 🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2510.25417
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Is social media dying? How much has Twitter changed as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation?
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has transformed.
Here are the key take-aways 🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2510.25417
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has transformed.
Here are the key take-aways 🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2510.25417
Reposted by David Beard
NEW, exclusively in The Downballot's Morning Digest:
Trump won #TN07 by 22. Dem Aftyn Behn's new poll has it as a 10-point race.
The problem is that her GOP opponent is already at 51, but her pollster argues that an upset remains possible.
Our full writeup: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Trump won #TN07 by 22. Dem Aftyn Behn's new poll has it as a 10-point race.
The problem is that her GOP opponent is already at 51, but her pollster argues that an upset remains possible.
Our full writeup: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
October 28, 2025 at 3:42 PM
NEW, exclusively in The Downballot's Morning Digest:
Trump won #TN07 by 22. Dem Aftyn Behn's new poll has it as a 10-point race.
The problem is that her GOP opponent is already at 51, but her pollster argues that an upset remains possible.
Our full writeup: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Trump won #TN07 by 22. Dem Aftyn Behn's new poll has it as a 10-point race.
The problem is that her GOP opponent is already at 51, but her pollster argues that an upset remains possible.
Our full writeup: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Reposted by David Beard
this rocks. when indiana edu killed the student newspaper, Purdue stepped up, printed the forbidden issue, drove it to Bloomington and stocked the boxes.
October 18, 2025 at 6:27 PM
this rocks. when indiana edu killed the student newspaper, Purdue stepped up, printed the forbidden issue, drove it to Bloomington and stocked the boxes.
Reposted by David Beard
Also on this week's show, co-hosts @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social discuss why the #MESen Dem primary offers an ideal "shakedown cruise" for candidates to prove their mettle before the general election. CNN's new report about Graham Platner's social media today shows why that test matters!
Looking to see more “fightback” from Democrats? It’s happening all the time—in the states. Joining us on The Downballot podcast is @gabygoldstein.bsky.social, the founder of @state-futures.bsky.social, a new organization devoted to organizing Dem legislators to help them fight harder—and smarter.
How Dems are fighting back—state by state
Listen now | Gaby Goldstein explains how State Futures is helping Democratic lawmakers organize against Trump
www.the-downballot.com
October 16, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Also on this week's show, co-hosts @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social discuss why the #MESen Dem primary offers an ideal "shakedown cruise" for candidates to prove their mettle before the general election. CNN's new report about Graham Platner's social media today shows why that test matters!
Reposted by David Beard
Great @the-downballot.com podcast this week on all fronts, but I particularly found the first 10 minutes useful as the team provided an in-depth explanation on the #TN07 Special Election, and how/why the Democrat could potentially eke out a surprise win.
www.the-downballot.com/p/why-virgin...
www.the-downballot.com/p/why-virgin...
Why Virginia Dems think they can win big
Listen now | Del. Dan Helmer tells us why he's optimistic about November
www.the-downballot.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Great @the-downballot.com podcast this week on all fronts, but I particularly found the first 10 minutes useful as the team provided an in-depth explanation on the #TN07 Special Election, and how/why the Democrat could potentially eke out a surprise win.
www.the-downballot.com/p/why-virgin...
www.the-downballot.com/p/why-virgin...
Reposted by David Beard
There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
Here's every state that could draw a new congressional map by 2026
Most states can't pass new maps quickly—but those that can favor Republicans
www.the-downballot.com
October 3, 2025 at 3:22 PM
There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
Reposted by David Beard
Iowa Auditor and candidate for governor Rob Sand @robsandia.bsky.social joins us on this week's podcast! Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, how he won by just 3,000 votes in 2022, and his plan to win the governorship next year.
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...
How Rob Sand plans to win Iowa’s governorship
Watch now | There's a lot of evidence the state is purpler than you might think
www.the-downballot.com
October 2, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Iowa Auditor and candidate for governor Rob Sand @robsandia.bsky.social joins us on this week's podcast! Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, how he won by just 3,000 votes in 2022, and his plan to win the governorship next year.
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...