Elliott Collins
@elliottcollins.bsky.social
Development economics, statistics and philosophy of poverty measurement. Recently returned to Berkeley and Social Media.
elliottcollins.com/
P.S. - All my re-posts are, without exception, endorsements.
elliottcollins.com/
P.S. - All my re-posts are, without exception, endorsements.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
For everyone whose back hurt a little when they woke up this morning, a new strongbad email: m.youtube.com/watch?v=-zhs....
Strong Bad Email #210 - Robots
YouTube video by homestarrunnerdotcom
m.youtube.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:15 PM
For everyone whose back hurt a little when they woke up this morning, a new strongbad email: m.youtube.com/watch?v=-zhs....
Reposted by Elliott Collins
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Have we considered the possibility that the "67" meme is caused by Data sending information out of the time loop in an attempt to stop America from crashing into the USS Bozeman?
November 22, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Have we considered the possibility that the "67" meme is caused by Data sending information out of the time loop in an attempt to stop America from crashing into the USS Bozeman?
In the early Facebook days, this was called "Vaguebooking" and it largely fell out of fashion for a while, but Bluesky has really brought it back.
it’s weird knowing we all read the same disgusting document
November 22, 2025 at 6:13 PM
In the early Facebook days, this was called "Vaguebooking" and it largely fell out of fashion for a while, but Bluesky has really brought it back.
Squad goals.
November 21, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Squad goals.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
in case you missed it - this feels very relevant in light of the emails between Larry Summers & Jeffrey Epstein. In the emails, Summers is seeking advice on how to seduce a woman he describes as a mentee type. Unknown who she is or where she was working or studying. He was at Harvard.
📣 New NBER Working Paper out today 📣
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
November 16, 2025 at 4:15 PM
in case you missed it - this feels very relevant in light of the emails between Larry Summers & Jeffrey Epstein. In the emails, Summers is seeking advice on how to seduce a woman he describes as a mentee type. Unknown who she is or where she was working or studying. He was at Harvard.
I read the news most days, but I still only know what a third of current-event posts on this site are talking about. Everyone seems to have a separate idea of what the main story of the day is.
November 18, 2025 at 2:00 AM
I read the news most days, but I still only know what a third of current-event posts on this site are talking about. Everyone seems to have a separate idea of what the main story of the day is.
This did not have to happen.
In the last decades, the world has made fantastic progress against extreme poverty. In 1990, 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty. Since then, the number of extremely poor people has declined by 1.5 *billion* people. 🧵
November 17, 2025 at 7:56 PM
This did not have to happen.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
In the last decades, the world has made fantastic progress against extreme poverty. In 1990, 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty. Since then, the number of extremely poor people has declined by 1.5 *billion* people. 🧵
November 17, 2025 at 11:24 AM
In the last decades, the world has made fantastic progress against extreme poverty. In 1990, 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty. Since then, the number of extremely poor people has declined by 1.5 *billion* people. 🧵
Reposted by Elliott Collins
It rules that $200-$400 of our taxes annually is enough to support SNAP and help our friends and neighbors eat. I don’t want people to starve! We have the resources to prevent that! Every dollar spent on SNAP saves more money elsewhere! It’s obviously good!
November 16, 2025 at 2:02 PM
It rules that $200-$400 of our taxes annually is enough to support SNAP and help our friends and neighbors eat. I don’t want people to starve! We have the resources to prevent that! Every dollar spent on SNAP saves more money elsewhere! It’s obviously good!
I still can't imagine what sequence of events lead to people like this being on a first-name basis with this guy.
Are there other multimillionaires who moderately famous econometrics guys just casually email with about policy blogs?
Are there other multimillionaires who moderately famous econometrics guys just casually email with about policy blogs?
In between things I've been checking in on the emails that mention "university" and uhh did we all know about this connection?
![Screenshot from the Epstein Document Search which reads: House_Oversight_029401
From: Donald Rubin
Sent: 1/22/2017 7:31:32 PM
To: jeffrey E. [jeeyacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Republican health care experts dismiss Donald Trump's ideas
Importance: High
https://www.statnews.com/20 1 6/03/04/trump -repub cans-health-care/? s camp aign=trendmd
Jeffrey,
This cannot be true, can it? This guy must be as dumb about this stuff as a tampon laced with arsenic!!
HELP!
Great meeting yesterday — really enjoyed it.
And happy birthday again, Don
Donald B. Rubin
John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics
Department of Statistics, Harvard University
1 Oxford Street
Cambridge MA 02138
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 029401](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ozma3timm5c32fa7bimb4zaj/bafkreiezajc6f2rgwxrdx2242izbelpumkgdruc52pzu236rhovlcyfmde@jpeg)
November 15, 2025 at 2:49 AM
I still can't imagine what sequence of events lead to people like this being on a first-name basis with this guy.
Are there other multimillionaires who moderately famous econometrics guys just casually email with about policy blogs?
Are there other multimillionaires who moderately famous econometrics guys just casually email with about policy blogs?
💯💯 Conspiracy theories so often serve the powerful because they tell you that you can't see it when powerful people do bad things, so that we miss it when those things are done in public.
I think an underrated function of conspiracy theories is that they prevent us from noticing the actual collusion of forces that harms and collectively assails us; noticing this would be more painful than believing in even the most evil and outlandish conspiracy, because it is actually true
It is hard to get over that the Q-Anon folks spent years feverishly looking in pizza parlors for the cabal of rich, elite pedophiles and it turns out THERE WAS ONE, right in front of their noses, which they failed to identify and instead voted for three times in a row.
November 13, 2025 at 2:59 AM
💯💯 Conspiracy theories so often serve the powerful because they tell you that you can't see it when powerful people do bad things, so that we miss it when those things are done in public.
Bluesky is still like Twitter in that it frequently feels like you've walked into a room where people are dealing with an active crisis that they're too focused to explain and you have to scroll the news to figure out which story they're talking about.
It infuriates me that Republicans are going to respond to this by trying to take away rights from LGBTQ people.
November 13, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Bluesky is still like Twitter in that it frequently feels like you've walked into a room where people are dealing with an active crisis that they're too focused to explain and you have to scroll the news to figure out which story they're talking about.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Subjective Bayesians assigning priors:
November 12, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Subjective Bayesians assigning priors:
Sad to see academia abandoning its proud traditions like this.
I await everyone’s praise for not suggesting measure theory is a prerequisite for making a plot in R.
November 12, 2025 at 4:34 AM
Sad to see academia abandoning its proud traditions like this.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
I would consider myself a centrist Democrat and I am so tired of these feckless, stand-for-nothing centrists.
November 10, 2025 at 2:17 AM
I would consider myself a centrist Democrat and I am so tired of these feckless, stand-for-nothing centrists.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
It is genuinely hard for most people to grasp how poor the past was.
November 9, 2025 at 6:23 PM
It is genuinely hard for most people to grasp how poor the past was.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Reposted by Elliott Collins
So pleased to see the mRNA platform being used to develop new vaccines against tuberculosis!!!
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Immunopeptidomics can inform the design of mRNA vaccines for the delivery of Mycobacterium tuberculosis MHC class II antigens
MHC class II immunopeptidomics in human phagocytes infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis enables vaccine immunogen design and optimization.
www.science.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:08 PM
So pleased to see the mRNA platform being used to develop new vaccines against tuberculosis!!!
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Elliott Collins
NOVA is Spanberger +45.
November 5, 2025 at 3:40 PM
NOVA is Spanberger +45.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Oakland built 10,000 units, rents dropped 25%, the value of the new apartment buildings dropped 50%, and some projects went bankrupt (were handed over to the lender, foreclosed, etc).
good for tenants!
good for tenants!
here’s an update on Oakland by the way.
Developers overbuilt so much that they’re handing the keys back to the lenders and wiping out all profit. www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco...
Developers overbuilt so much that they’re handing the keys back to the lenders and wiping out all profit. www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco...
September 9, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Oakland built 10,000 units, rents dropped 25%, the value of the new apartment buildings dropped 50%, and some projects went bankrupt (were handed over to the lender, foreclosed, etc).
good for tenants!
good for tenants!
Reposted by Elliott Collins
We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
October 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.
Reposted by Elliott Collins
Reposted by Elliott Collins
