Estelle Cantillon
@estellecantillon.bsky.social
190 followers 340 following 50 posts
I'm an economist at Université Libre de Bruxelles, interested in market design, climate transition and sustainability. Posting mostly in EN but sometimes also in FR and NL. Webpage: https://ecantill.ulb.be/
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estellecantillon.bsky.social
For those who follow the debate in France on the @gabrielzucman.bsky.social tax : the mood among the ultra rich is about the same 🫠
zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
"How Are the Very Rich Feeling About New York’s Next Mayor?"

A Dramatic Reading of The Recent New York Times Dispatch from the Hamptons.

Presented by The Gilded Age's Morgan Spector.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Was cursing against DB for being late again and sabotaging long-distance, low-carbon travel. A missed connection in Cologne would have cost me 3 extra hours of travel. And then🙏 they announced that the train to Brussels would wait for the connecting passengers. Thank you @deutschebahn.com !
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Good for them and good for you! Congratulations and welcome to Europe.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
A quote from robertreich.substack.com/p/a-betrayal... that also applies to our leaders in the EU. Time to uphold int'l and humanitarian law. Time to ask for journalists to be let in. And of course high time to let humanitarian organizations and food in.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Does it work for conservation ? Our proposal is best suited for re/afforestation. The economics of the conservation is very different & the flow benefits are smaller. Maybe w/ blended finance. 6/6
estellecantillon.bsky.social
How does this differ from other emerging nature-shares proposals? We do not count on the marketable nature benefits (logging etc) to be enough to support demand. These slns may be ok to finance transitions to regenerative ag in the Global North, not for forests in the South. 5/6
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Our proposal spurred interesting conversations. Is it Art. 6 compatible ? Yes. Countries could use the market to buy nature shares that deliver carbon dividends for their NDCs. How do you ensure a liquid secondary mkt? Using the info generated during the primary mkt (see paper for details). 4/6
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Jurisdictions (rather than project developers) are on the supply side. A larger size reduces leakage, monitoring costs, risks, etc. To create demand, we consider a mandate on pension funds to be Paris-and Montreal-aligned. The carbon and biodiversity dividends reduce the funds’ footprint. 3/6
picture of proposed market design
estellecantillon.bsky.social
We propose to view nature as equity which generates carbon and biodiversity dividends. Viewing nature as a risky asset recognizes its impermanence. Using dividends to distribute its benefits = doing so prudently. But it requires to rethink the value of a market and how we create & support it. 2/6
estellecantillon.bsky.social
I had the pleasure to work with Bea and Eric on scaling finance for forests in the Global South. Our starting point: the nature-based VCM is broken. Higher standards and better monitoring will not fix it. It can’t serve as a template for nature. Why? It can’t deal with nature’s impermanence. 🧵1/6
Abstract: We argue for a new approach to finance nature-based provision of carbon and biodiversity benefits: one that takes shares in projects as the main asset to be traded, rather than credits. In our mechanism, jurisdictions propose nature-positive large-scale projects. Investors buy shares in these projects. Shares do not affect land ownership but produce carbon and biodiversity dividends. Prices in the primary market are used to pin down investor preferences over project attributes and generate conversion rates for different projects in the secondary market, thereby fostering liquidity for investors. Compared to existing credit-based approaches, our mechanism accounts for the unavoidable non-permanence of forests and fosters long-term thinking for market participants. Additionally, our mechanism lowers transaction costs, encourages additionality, and reduces leakage. We propose several venues to support demand for this new market and discuss options available to adapt the mechanism to pure conservation projects, which are essential but less amenable to be turned into dividend-producing assets because they generate lower climate and biodiversity flow benefits.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Glad to see civil society and the judicial system taking over. The following quote from the article shows there's still some work to do. Fresh fish, really? And nobody's responsibility to check?????
https://euobserver.com/eu-and-the-world/area674da7
estellecantillon.bsky.social
I'm so looking forward to this conference. To catch up with friends, hear about new research and, of course, share our memories of YingHua.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
👏👏 The power of remote sensing (and a little bit of AI).
Can it one day replace the costly Monitoring-Reporting-Verification cycle ?
climatetrace.org
A new study compared Climate TRACE emissions data to emissions disclosure reports from 279 companies, finding that 75 of those companies were significantly underreporting their emissions. www.ft.com/content/0392...
Social graphic with a background image of a gas flare emitting flames. Text reads:
"Did you know? Nearly 27% of companies in a new study underreported their scope 1 emissions. They are mostly US oil and gas companies."
Source: Lepere et al. (2025), Emissions Dissonance: Examining How Firm-Level Under-Reporting Undermines Policy.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Good news of the day: EU one percentage point away from meeting its 2030 climate target (-55% relative to 1990).
Yes, it can be done 💪 (and we have not even started doing the more difficult stuff: behavior & agriculture)
on.ft.com/4mr3Ro9
Next milestone: 2040 and -90% relative to 1990.
picture from FT article
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Thanks for sharing this podcast, Steve ! Very interesting and stimulating. Something new for me was how this is a recurring hype. Crazy that politicians, policy-makers, businesses and individuals keep being fooled.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
EV charging is a great source of flexibility for electricity markets. But we need EV charging prices that reflect the state of the wholesale market. Curious to read if Bram receives other answers.
bramclaeys.bsky.social
Interesting Q: which EV charger offers negative or significantly reduced tariffs during negative price moments on electricity spot market?

Jaap only found one: Sonnenstrom Saarpfalz in DE.

Do you know any others?

🔌💡
jaapburger.eu
I only found one that actually offered negative prices to users: Sonnenstrom Saarpfalz in Germany! At locations with their own solar power generation, the rate was minus(!) 8.8 cents per kWh (those charging ad-hoc with
bank/credit card: 0 cents)

sonnenstrom-saarpfalz.de/preise/flex
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Happy for Canada today. 🍁 From Carney’s victory speech: “Virtue is a muscle that grows with its exercise. We become just by doing just acts, brave by doing brave acts. When we are kind, kindness grows.” and, on top, he's a great economist interested in evidence and evidence-based policies.
estellecantillon.bsky.social
Interesting about emissions from the LULUCF sector in Finland but also great data organisation and vizualisation by @robbieandrew.bsky.social Everything you want to know about energy and emissions at your fingertips.
glenpeters.bsky.social
Probably the best example of a collapse in the uptake of carbon dioxide on land (LULUCF) is in Finland.

A significant and sustained carbon sink turned into a source in 10 years.

robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou...

1/
Graph showing: Annual LULUCF emissions: Finland
estellecantillon.bsky.social
The history of markets is fascinating: I have written on how the EU ETS has evolved over time, adapting to changing circumstances and lessons from past mistakes, and @alroth.bsky.social has written on the need for market maintenance. Both chapters are forth. in a book: www.nber.org/books-and-ch...
New Directions in Market Design
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org