Gaurav Saroliya
@gauravsaroliya.bsky.social
Macro, music, literature, nature
US hourly earnings growth increased for white-collar workers but fell - 2nd month in a row - for blue-collar workers
December 6, 2024 at 2:27 PM
US hourly earnings growth increased for white-collar workers but fell - 2nd month in a row - for blue-collar workers
The dollar’s valuation anchor has shifted higher structurally against many currencies, as discussed in this great thread.
All told the accumulated productivity diffs between the US and the rest of the developed world in the last couple decades in *level* terms adds up to 20%+ in some cases.
That's a huge accumulated difference in terms of the value of output achieved in one economy vs. another.
That's a huge accumulated difference in terms of the value of output achieved in one economy vs. another.
December 5, 2024 at 11:43 AM
The dollar’s valuation anchor has shifted higher structurally against many currencies, as discussed in this great thread.
USDKRW - the story so far
December 3, 2024 at 4:35 PM
USDKRW - the story so far
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
1/14
While there are indeed a number of things China can do to retaliate against the prospect of a worsening trade conflict with the US, and these are things the US and the world should worry about, this article makes the common mistake of...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
While there are indeed a number of things China can do to retaliate against the prospect of a worsening trade conflict with the US, and these are things the US and the world should worry about, this article makes the common mistake of...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
How China Can Hit Back at Trump: Target US Firms, Turn to India, Africa
China wields new powers as it confronts the prospect of another trade conflict with the US, expanding its retaliatory reach in recent years to include tools capable of wreaking havoc on global commerc...
www.bloomberg.com
December 1, 2024 at 3:55 AM
1/14
While there are indeed a number of things China can do to retaliate against the prospect of a worsening trade conflict with the US, and these are things the US and the world should worry about, this article makes the common mistake of...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
While there are indeed a number of things China can do to retaliate against the prospect of a worsening trade conflict with the US, and these are things the US and the world should worry about, this article makes the common mistake of...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
UK is in a much better fundamental position.
The Reeves budget outlays weren't mostly unfunded like the Kwarteng budget.
Gilts now have a large premium vs 2022. Real yields are 300bp higher, as inflation has halved.
To borrow from @darioperkins.bsky.social , no moron risk premium needed!
The Reeves budget outlays weren't mostly unfunded like the Kwarteng budget.
Gilts now have a large premium vs 2022. Real yields are 300bp higher, as inflation has halved.
To borrow from @darioperkins.bsky.social , no moron risk premium needed!
November 29, 2024 at 4:47 PM
UK is in a much better fundamental position.
The Reeves budget outlays weren't mostly unfunded like the Kwarteng budget.
Gilts now have a large premium vs 2022. Real yields are 300bp higher, as inflation has halved.
To borrow from @darioperkins.bsky.social , no moron risk premium needed!
The Reeves budget outlays weren't mostly unfunded like the Kwarteng budget.
Gilts now have a large premium vs 2022. Real yields are 300bp higher, as inflation has halved.
To borrow from @darioperkins.bsky.social , no moron risk premium needed!
Actually, Edmund does. Just a few lines earlier, Gloucester actually affirms his belief in astrology. And so does Kent, later in Act IV.
Shakespeare neither advocated nor militated.
He just observed and portrayed in a way that stuck.
Shakespeare neither advocated nor militated.
He just observed and portrayed in a way that stuck.
William Shakespeare DESTROYS astrology
November 29, 2024 at 2:43 PM
Actually, Edmund does. Just a few lines earlier, Gloucester actually affirms his belief in astrology. And so does Kent, later in Act IV.
Shakespeare neither advocated nor militated.
He just observed and portrayed in a way that stuck.
Shakespeare neither advocated nor militated.
He just observed and portrayed in a way that stuck.
Norway set to go 100% EV. Wow!
‘Toyota is going from one electric model to five to compete with Tesla., fuel stations are ripping out pumps for chargers…nursing homes in the rural interior have switched to battery-powered cars despite months of arctic cold.’
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
‘Toyota is going from one electric model to five to compete with Tesla., fuel stations are ripping out pumps for chargers…nursing homes in the rural interior have switched to battery-powered cars despite months of arctic cold.’
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
This Is What the World’s First All-EV Car Market Looks Like
Norway is on the cusp of completing a transition away from combustion cars thanks to targeted incentives that made electrics an easy choice
www.bloomberg.com
November 28, 2024 at 10:17 PM
Norway set to go 100% EV. Wow!
‘Toyota is going from one electric model to five to compete with Tesla., fuel stations are ripping out pumps for chargers…nursing homes in the rural interior have switched to battery-powered cars despite months of arctic cold.’
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
‘Toyota is going from one electric model to five to compete with Tesla., fuel stations are ripping out pumps for chargers…nursing homes in the rural interior have switched to battery-powered cars despite months of arctic cold.’
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Schatz getting Schanbelled this morning
November 27, 2024 at 8:47 AM
Schatz getting Schanbelled this morning
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
1/14
It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
China Daily Website - Connecting China Connecting the World
Chinadaily.com.cn is the largest English portal in China, providing news, business information, BBS, learning materials. The Website has channels as China, BizChina, World, Opinion, Sports/Olympics, E...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
November 27, 2024 at 5:36 AM
1/14
It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
France- Germany yield spread closed at the widest since the Eurozone debt crisis.
IMF’s forecasts suggest the trend continues.
Spain is swapping places with France in the Eurozone’s economic core.
Even Italy is projected to fare better.
Qu’est ce qu’il se passe???!!
IMF’s forecasts suggest the trend continues.
Spain is swapping places with France in the Eurozone’s economic core.
Even Italy is projected to fare better.
Qu’est ce qu’il se passe???!!
November 26, 2024 at 10:48 PM
France- Germany yield spread closed at the widest since the Eurozone debt crisis.
IMF’s forecasts suggest the trend continues.
Spain is swapping places with France in the Eurozone’s economic core.
Even Italy is projected to fare better.
Qu’est ce qu’il se passe???!!
IMF’s forecasts suggest the trend continues.
Spain is swapping places with France in the Eurozone’s economic core.
Even Italy is projected to fare better.
Qu’est ce qu’il se passe???!!
Insightful piece by Professor Simon Wren-Lewis
'Handouts after prices have increased to compensate consumers for lost income leave the shock of paying higher prices in place, and for less engaged voters it may be this that really counts.'
'Handouts after prices have increased to compensate consumers for lost income leave the shock of paying higher prices in place, and for less engaged voters it may be this that really counts.'
New post: Should governments protect citizens from external shocks to living standards?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/shou...
Many governments cushioned the impact of energy price rises on consumers. Did this make sense in economic or political terms?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/shou...
Many governments cushioned the impact of energy price rises on consumers. Did this make sense in economic or political terms?
Should governments protect citizens from external shocks to living standards?
One of the themes in post-US election analysis, including my own , has been the shock to real income caused by recent commodity prices inc...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 26, 2024 at 12:13 PM
Insightful piece by Professor Simon Wren-Lewis
'Handouts after prices have increased to compensate consumers for lost income leave the shock of paying higher prices in place, and for less engaged voters it may be this that really counts.'
'Handouts after prices have increased to compensate consumers for lost income leave the shock of paying higher prices in place, and for less engaged voters it may be this that really counts.'
Good news for inflation.
Not so good for retailers’ margins.
Not so good for retailers’ margins.
US retailers try to lift flagging consumers with weeks-long Black Friday deals
https://www.ft.com/content/2dc40ef5-c053-4d14-a693-a00b0982c887
https://www.ft.com/content/2dc40ef5-c053-4d14-a693-a00b0982c887
US retailers try to lift flagging consumers with weeks-long Black Friday deals
Spending is key driver of US economy but shows signs of slowing as impact of past inflation lingers
www.ft.com
November 25, 2024 at 10:27 PM
Good news for inflation.
Not so good for retailers’ margins.
Not so good for retailers’ margins.
Small caps breaking out will be a pretty good sign of the broadening out thesis. Seem to be getting there…
The Russell 2000 is soooooo close to its first high of the bull market, which is kind of crazy considering small caps usually beat large right out of the gate
Go little buddies, go!
Go little buddies, go!
November 25, 2024 at 10:22 PM
Small caps breaking out will be a pretty good sign of the broadening out thesis. Seem to be getting there…
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social
www.frbsf.org/research-and...
www.frbsf.org/research-and...
CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services - San Francisco Fed
CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates price changes of the typical goods and services that U.S. households consume to understand their role in driving changes in overall consumer...
www.frbsf.org
November 24, 2024 at 10:47 PM
The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social
www.frbsf.org/research-and...
www.frbsf.org/research-and...
UST 10y yield reaction to Scott Bessent's appointment means for now we remain in the downtrending channel after the big trendline break in Q2
November 25, 2024 at 8:13 AM
UST 10y yield reaction to Scott Bessent's appointment means for now we remain in the downtrending channel after the big trendline break in Q2
US 2s10s back to being inverted following further bull-flattening in Asian trading
November 25, 2024 at 6:25 AM
US 2s10s back to being inverted following further bull-flattening in Asian trading
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
Hello!
Well I guess I'm on here now too.
Fintwit member since 2013, poster of charts, writer of research at Topdown Charts, and stormer of charts at The Weekly ChartStorm.
Looking forward to seeing how this platform goes.....
Well I guess I'm on here now too.
Fintwit member since 2013, poster of charts, writer of research at Topdown Charts, and stormer of charts at The Weekly ChartStorm.
Looking forward to seeing how this platform goes.....
November 24, 2024 at 6:54 PM
Hello!
Well I guess I'm on here now too.
Fintwit member since 2013, poster of charts, writer of research at Topdown Charts, and stormer of charts at The Weekly ChartStorm.
Looking forward to seeing how this platform goes.....
Well I guess I'm on here now too.
Fintwit member since 2013, poster of charts, writer of research at Topdown Charts, and stormer of charts at The Weekly ChartStorm.
Looking forward to seeing how this platform goes.....
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
Here’s a crazy fact for you: Spain and Germany have now seen basically the exact same amount of economic growth post-2008. Would have been unthinkable to people during most of the 2010s. Spain has seen ~10 percentage points more cumulative growth since 2017.
November 23, 2024 at 9:26 AM
Here’s a crazy fact for you: Spain and Germany have now seen basically the exact same amount of economic growth post-2008. Would have been unthinkable to people during most of the 2010s. Spain has seen ~10 percentage points more cumulative growth since 2017.
This is brilliant
November 22, 2024 at 5:44 PM
This is brilliant
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
*GOOLSBEE: NEUTRAL RATE IS A LONG WAY BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW
Doves have to join in for the 'higher neutral rate' narrative to go mainstream. Doesn't seem like they're joining the Logan/Bowman train yet.
Doves have to join in for the 'higher neutral rate' narrative to go mainstream. Doesn't seem like they're joining the Logan/Bowman train yet.
November 21, 2024 at 6:09 PM
*GOOLSBEE: NEUTRAL RATE IS A LONG WAY BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW
Doves have to join in for the 'higher neutral rate' narrative to go mainstream. Doesn't seem like they're joining the Logan/Bowman train yet.
Doves have to join in for the 'higher neutral rate' narrative to go mainstream. Doesn't seem like they're joining the Logan/Bowman train yet.
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
My Trade Secrets today. Even if Biden's green spending gets axed by Trump, the global green transition will continue. The tech mainly comes from China & falling costs have given it momentum.
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
November 21, 2024 at 12:41 PM
My Trade Secrets today. Even if Biden's green spending gets axed by Trump, the global green transition will continue. The tech mainly comes from China & falling costs have given it momentum.
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
Reposted by Gaurav Saroliya
Claims:
1/ Initial claims are where I thought they'd be around this time of year: the 210s.
The "improvement" relative to the spring/summer is illusory - just a reflection of funky seasonal adjustment. (The improvement from the hurricanes/strike is real, though.)
1/ Initial claims are where I thought they'd be around this time of year: the 210s.
The "improvement" relative to the spring/summer is illusory - just a reflection of funky seasonal adjustment. (The improvement from the hurricanes/strike is real, though.)
November 21, 2024 at 1:36 PM
Claims:
1/ Initial claims are where I thought they'd be around this time of year: the 210s.
The "improvement" relative to the spring/summer is illusory - just a reflection of funky seasonal adjustment. (The improvement from the hurricanes/strike is real, though.)
1/ Initial claims are where I thought they'd be around this time of year: the 210s.
The "improvement" relative to the spring/summer is illusory - just a reflection of funky seasonal adjustment. (The improvement from the hurricanes/strike is real, though.)