@groundloop.bsky.social
Interesting argument about a possible deal where the US gets VZ and Russia gets UA. Some random thoughts.
First off: My hunch is there might really be one or even a wider secret clause with a sharpie line on a map, eg. US = Americas + Western Europe as a protectorate, RU = SU + former Warsaw Pact).
First off: My hunch is there might really be one or even a wider secret clause with a sharpie line on a map, eg. US = Americas + Western Europe as a protectorate, RU = SU + former Warsaw Pact).
Long thread:
There is no proof that the "Venezuela for Ukraine" swap that Fiona Hill described in her 2019 testimony was ever completed, but there are signs that it is beginning to play out.
Two weeks before US troops nabbed Maduro and his wife, Russia pulled all of its people out of Venezuela.
1/
There is no proof that the "Venezuela for Ukraine" swap that Fiona Hill described in her 2019 testimony was ever completed, but there are signs that it is beginning to play out.
Two weeks before US troops nabbed Maduro and his wife, Russia pulled all of its people out of Venezuela.
1/
January 8, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Interesting argument about a possible deal where the US gets VZ and Russia gets UA. Some random thoughts.
First off: My hunch is there might really be one or even a wider secret clause with a sharpie line on a map, eg. US = Americas + Western Europe as a protectorate, RU = SU + former Warsaw Pact).
First off: My hunch is there might really be one or even a wider secret clause with a sharpie line on a map, eg. US = Americas + Western Europe as a protectorate, RU = SU + former Warsaw Pact).
Though I suspect the original name was "Northern 20-Inch White Crusader Steel Sledgehammer", but they asked him in the Signal chat to tone it down a bit.
His contribution was perhaps to name it "Northern Hammer." So Hegseth.
January 4, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Though I suspect the original name was "Northern 20-Inch White Crusader Steel Sledgehammer", but they asked him in the Signal chat to tone it down a bit.
Also something like a week before, when Zhirinovsky blabbed out the exact date. My misunderstanding was: I expected an invasion each year of Trump I. So when it was Biden, a unified NATO again, I concluded Putin would not be so stupid to ignore that. But he did. Still unsure why he waited so long.
As someone who doubted that Putin would invade until a week before he did because he simply did not allot enough troops to achieve a stable occupation, the core lesson from 2022 is that even if a course of action is strategically stupid doesn't mean that a solipsistically deluded leader won't do it
ok so maybe I was wrong when I said Putin would never invade. and maybe I was wrong when I said Putin will win in a week and we should not help. But now we’re here, and I'm going to tell you what putin is thinking, and I’m going to do it in the most patronizing way possible
December 18, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Also something like a week before, when Zhirinovsky blabbed out the exact date. My misunderstanding was: I expected an invasion each year of Trump I. So when it was Biden, a unified NATO again, I concluded Putin would not be so stupid to ignore that. But he did. Still unsure why he waited so long.
Reposted
“A second inflatable frog has now been spotted wiggling through Portland.”
October 8, 2025 at 10:54 PM
“A second inflatable frog has now been spotted wiggling through Portland.”
Also the other charts people post in the comment. Fits my intuition that bond markets tend to be less untethered from reality. But also interesting how the British stock market correctly reflects that Unternehmen Barbarossa is a colossal failure despite its initial successes.
Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.
August 26, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Also the other charts people post in the comment. Fits my intuition that bond markets tend to be less untethered from reality. But also interesting how the British stock market correctly reflects that Unternehmen Barbarossa is a colossal failure despite its initial successes.
Reposted
To stop the war in Ukraine text STOP to VLADIMIR
To stop the tariff war with China text STOP to XI
To stop the tariff war with China text STOP to XI
April 25, 2025 at 9:35 AM
To stop the war in Ukraine text STOP to VLADIMIR
To stop the tariff war with China text STOP to XI
To stop the tariff war with China text STOP to XI
Wonder what inspired me six years ago. It was buried so deep on YouTube I had forgotten about the piece myself.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMv2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMv2...
Meta-Funk: The Art of No Deal
YouTube video by Kapitalistenschweine
www.youtube.com
April 24, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Wonder what inspired me six years ago. It was buried so deep on YouTube I had forgotten about the piece myself.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMv2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMv2...
Had to laugh so hard at this on Bloomberg, something like "US asked China to request a call."
Isn't that that the US requested a call? It is like "I ask you to request a date from me."
Isn't that that the US requested a call? It is like "I ask you to request a date from me."
April 11, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Had to laugh so hard at this on Bloomberg, something like "US asked China to request a call."
Isn't that that the US requested a call? It is like "I ask you to request a date from me."
Isn't that that the US requested a call? It is like "I ask you to request a date from me."
Reposted
I see we've reached the "don't worry, the Finance Minister is a Western-educated former fund manager" stage of the emerging market crisis playbook.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
April 11, 2025 at 8:38 AM
I see we've reached the "don't worry, the Finance Minister is a Western-educated former fund manager" stage of the emerging market crisis playbook.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted
Final_Version_of_Tarrifs_actualFINALcopy_version7_USETHISONE.docx
April 9, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Final_Version_of_Tarrifs_actualFINALcopy_version7_USETHISONE.docx
Reposted
My translation of a viral Japanese meme summarizing decades of U.S. complaints about Japan not buying enough American cars (while not making the kind of cars Japanese consumers actually want):
April 8, 2025 at 1:48 PM
My translation of a viral Japanese meme summarizing decades of U.S. complaints about Japan not buying enough American cars (while not making the kind of cars Japanese consumers actually want):
Reposted
It’s the stupid, economy.
April 8, 2025 at 10:10 PM
It’s the stupid, economy.
Now 28 days for the initial prediction: Looks pretty exact with Musk turning against Navarro and Trump's tariffs.
I don't think I am that clairvoyant actually. When I wrote it, my hunch was that I would be proven right, but it might as well take three or six months.
I don't think I am that clairvoyant actually. When I wrote it, my hunch was that I would be proven right, but it might as well take three or six months.
It was a bold bet 22 days ago. I may misread the development. But am I completely wrong that Musk's role is not as dominant as it was? His failure in Wisconsin shows he has no Wunderwaffe to bail Trump out. Exploding rockets and imploding Tesla sales do not help either.
As kind of a bet: very soon = within a month or two. Could be in stages: Cut out of the inner circle, subordinate to cabinet ministers, DOGE has to produce boring reports with no relevance. Reminds me so of Bannon in the first term whose role was also vastly overestimated.
April 9, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Now 28 days for the initial prediction: Looks pretty exact with Musk turning against Navarro and Trump's tariffs.
I don't think I am that clairvoyant actually. When I wrote it, my hunch was that I would be proven right, but it might as well take three or six months.
I don't think I am that clairvoyant actually. When I wrote it, my hunch was that I would be proven right, but it might as well take three or six months.
It was a bold bet 22 days ago. I may misread the development. But am I completely wrong that Musk's role is not as dominant as it was? His failure in Wisconsin shows he has no Wunderwaffe to bail Trump out. Exploding rockets and imploding Tesla sales do not help either.
As kind of a bet: very soon = within a month or two. Could be in stages: Cut out of the inner circle, subordinate to cabinet ministers, DOGE has to produce boring reports with no relevance. Reminds me so of Bannon in the first term whose role was also vastly overestimated.
April 2, 2025 at 2:25 PM
It was a bold bet 22 days ago. I may misread the development. But am I completely wrong that Musk's role is not as dominant as it was? His failure in Wisconsin shows he has no Wunderwaffe to bail Trump out. Exploding rockets and imploding Tesla sales do not help either.
I found it notable that Zelensky stressed the "soon" here. Could mean many things:
1 - in any event: feeding the paranoia
2 - he knows something about Putin's health
3 - Ukraine taking aim at him personally
4 - they know someone else is planning a coup/assassination
5 - a mix of 3 & 4
1 - in any event: feeding the paranoia
2 - he knows something about Putin's health
3 - Ukraine taking aim at him personally
4 - they know someone else is planning a coup/assassination
5 - a mix of 3 & 4
Zelensky's "he will die soon" doing a number. Everybody thought it was about health, but it is perhaps more about feeding the paranoia.
March 30, 2025 at 9:07 AM
I found it notable that Zelensky stressed the "soon" here. Could mean many things:
1 - in any event: feeding the paranoia
2 - he knows something about Putin's health
3 - Ukraine taking aim at him personally
4 - they know someone else is planning a coup/assassination
5 - a mix of 3 & 4
1 - in any event: feeding the paranoia
2 - he knows something about Putin's health
3 - Ukraine taking aim at him personally
4 - they know someone else is planning a coup/assassination
5 - a mix of 3 & 4
Reposted
Trump administration meets the first rule of European politics:
|￣￣￣￣￣￣|
| TROIKA |
| ALWAYS |
| WINS |
| ＿＿＿＿＿_|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づ
|￣￣￣￣￣￣|
| TROIKA |
| ALWAYS |
| WINS |
| ＿＿＿＿＿_|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づ
According to the Financial Times, the European Union rejected Russia's demand for a ceasefire in exchange for lifting sanctions.
The EU stated that sanctions would remain in place until the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
www.ft.com/content/f5fe...
The EU stated that sanctions would remain in place until the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
www.ft.com/content/f5fe...
March 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Trump administration meets the first rule of European politics:
|￣￣￣￣￣￣|
| TROIKA |
| ALWAYS |
| WINS |
| ＿＿＿＿＿_|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づ
|￣￣￣￣￣￣|
| TROIKA |
| ALWAYS |
| WINS |
| ＿＿＿＿＿_|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づ
Reposted
Reposted
Dip every Canadian bullet in vaccine. They'll never invade.
March 19, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Dip every Canadian bullet in vaccine. They'll never invade.
Seems as if I got that right. Interesting that it is now a slower process of sidelining someone into irrelevance while in the first term I would have expected a sudden dismissal by tweet.
Only a hunch: Kellogg seems comparably decent, more like one of the "adults" in the first administration, and tried to avoid a complete sellout of Ukraine. Trump got angry that it took so long, told him the timeline was mid February. When he realized Kellogg was not even close, he took over himself.
March 17, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Seems as if I got that right. Interesting that it is now a slower process of sidelining someone into irrelevance while in the first term I would have expected a sudden dismissal by tweet.
Since everybody is focusing on Musk so much, who granted is the most visibly annoying exponent of all this. My hunch is that he is already on the way out and will very soon have more time for his families. Trump will stab him with glee once he feels Musk is more of a liability than an asset.
March 11, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Since everybody is focusing on Musk so much, who granted is the most visibly annoying exponent of all this. My hunch is that he is already on the way out and will very soon have more time for his families. Trump will stab him with glee once he feels Musk is more of a liability than an asset.
Paraphrasing Wagenknecht: "What I want to do is this. I just want to find, uh, 13,435 votes, which is one more than we have, because we got to 5%."
February 24, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Paraphrasing Wagenknecht: "What I want to do is this. I just want to find, uh, 13,435 votes, which is one more than we have, because we got to 5%."
Reposted
Years - 3
Victories - 0
Casualties - 850,000🌻
Coups -1
Ruble -💩
War crimes -♾
NATO -🇫🇮&🇸🇪
POTUS -1
Budeskanzler -0
Assad -Moscow
Warship -Submarine
Submarine -Sub marine
Aircraft - 🚀💥
Refineries -🔥
Raccoons -1🦝
Donkeys - -36🐴
Red lines - ➡️
I remain a master strategist
Victories - 0
Casualties - 850,000🌻
Coups -1
Ruble -💩
War crimes -♾
NATO -🇫🇮&🇸🇪
POTUS -1
Budeskanzler -0
Assad -Moscow
Warship -Submarine
Submarine -Sub marine
Aircraft - 🚀💥
Refineries -🔥
Raccoons -1🦝
Donkeys - -36🐴
Red lines - ➡️
I remain a master strategist
February 24, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Years - 3
Victories - 0
Casualties - 850,000🌻
Coups -1
Ruble -💩
War crimes -♾
NATO -🇫🇮&🇸🇪
POTUS -1
Budeskanzler -0
Assad -Moscow
Warship -Submarine
Submarine -Sub marine
Aircraft - 🚀💥
Refineries -🔥
Raccoons -1🦝
Donkeys - -36🐴
Red lines - ➡️
I remain a master strategist
Victories - 0
Casualties - 850,000🌻
Coups -1
Ruble -💩
War crimes -♾
NATO -🇫🇮&🇸🇪
POTUS -1
Budeskanzler -0
Assad -Moscow
Warship -Submarine
Submarine -Sub marine
Aircraft - 🚀💥
Refineries -🔥
Raccoons -1🦝
Donkeys - -36🐴
Red lines - ➡️
I remain a master strategist
This is a very good explainer of the tempo effect (among other things). Folk demography is all the rage, esp. in the US, whether media, blogs, social media, often with a catastrophic framing and political conclusions. I'd think there are two markers to separate wheat from chaff. ...
New article by me!
It's a common mistake to think the TFR is a prediction of the average number of children women will have over their lifetimes.
But it's not. The TFR can decline even when the eventual number of children per woman stays constant or even increases; the opposite can happen too. 🧵
It's a common mistake to think the TFR is a prediction of the average number of children women will have over their lifetimes.
But it's not. The TFR can decline even when the eventual number of children per woman stays constant or even increases; the opposite can happen too. 🧵
February 24, 2025 at 12:18 PM
This is a very good explainer of the tempo effect (among other things). Folk demography is all the rage, esp. in the US, whether media, blogs, social media, often with a catastrophic framing and political conclusions. I'd think there are two markers to separate wheat from chaff. ...
Bannon, Musk, and Vance - the intellectual trifecta of Western Civilization - called on them to vote for the unpopular populists. But the Germans did not listen. SAD!
February 23, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Bannon, Musk, and Vance - the intellectual trifecta of Western Civilization - called on them to vote for the unpopular populists. But the Germans did not listen. SAD!