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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski
@hannahrajski.bsky.social
210 followers 230 following 9 posts
📈 Election forecasting & vote expectations in 🇩🇪 | Zweitstimme.org | PhD student @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social 👩‍💼 she/her
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
pluggedchris.bsky.social
Christian Stecker @pluggedchris.bsky.social · 2d
Wir suchen Wahlhilfenhelfer zur #Kommunalwahl in #Hessen 2026.
👉 Anmeldung zur Infoveranstaltung: tudaipol.limesurvey.net/994956?lang=de
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
nilssteiner.bsky.social
Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 19d
Two fantastic days of the annual conference of the #AKWahlen are now behind us.

Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️

Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
veronique-jerome.bsky.social
veronique-jerome.bsky.social @veronique-jerome.bsky.social · 25d
It was a pleasure to chair and to be the discussant of the papers of such a wonderful @apsa.bsky.social panel! Thanks you all @hannahrajski.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social @bjerome-t.bsky.social
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
mzesunimannheim.bsky.social
MZES Uni Mannheim @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social · Aug 21
🗳️ The DFG-funded project @zweitstimme.bsky.social drew widespread attention from media and scholars in the context of the 2025 German federal election.

Besides national-level party vote shares, they forecasted district-level vote shares for candidates, and whether districts become “vacant”.

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Quote: “In the 2025 federal election in Germany new rules meant that for the first time some candidates have won their constituency, but no seat in parliament. Our prediction model allowed to forecast such vacant constituencies.” from Hannah Rajski
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Aug 7
EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.

😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.

👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.

A short 🧵
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
rdassonneville.bsky.social
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Aug 7
Feels like a good time to share this call for papers. Can't wait for EPSS 2026!
epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Aug 1
The European Political Science Society is now accepting paper & panel proposals for its annual conference!

📢 Call for Papers: EPSS 2026 – Belfast

🗓️ June 18–20, 2026

📍 ICC Belfast

📬 Deadline: Nov 7, 2025

🧵
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Jul 23
Thank you, Melanie! The workshop was very inspiring and colourful! 🗺️📊
hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Jul 23
Thank you for the insightful and fun workshop!
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Jul 22
Truly honored to be at the #WPM summer school and grateful for the chance to connect with so many inspiring women*. Looking forward to the next days! Big thanks to the organizers for making it all happen!
sophiahunger.bsky.social
Sophia Hunger @sophiahunger.bsky.social · Jul 21
What an inspiring first day at the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology here in Bremen yesterday! We were honored to be welcomed by the president of @unibremen.bsky.social‬, Prof. Jutta Günther, (1)
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Jul 21
Interested in election forecasting? 📊🗳️

Check out @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social and my talk on different forecasting models for the 2025 German election and insights into our Zweitstimme.org research project.
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · Jul 17
🚨 Content alert 🚨

New recording and workshop materials published!

➡️ Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches
👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)

📺 youtu.be/iQXUQ3NsKsk
🗒️ github.com/SocialScienc...
Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
youtu.be
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
rdassonneville.bsky.social
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Jun 30
‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇
rdassonneville.bsky.social
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Jun 3
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
www.kuleuven.be
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Jun 27
Really enjoyed Day 1 of #EPSA25 here in Madrid! ☀️
Today I’ll be presenting insights from our Zweitstimme.org pre-election survey on Germans’ electoral expectations 🇩🇪🗳️
🔍 What affected citizens’ accuracy?
🔍 Can financial incentives improve accuracy?

VOTBEH – When do campaigns work
📅 11:20
📍 OA.10
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Jun 26
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
klaramueller.bsky.social
Klara Müller @klaramueller.bsky.social · Jun 23
🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨

Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.

The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇

academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition
Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio
academic.oup.com
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · May 21
🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University).

⬇️ Zoom link and details below
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · May 15
🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches"

👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)

🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
cornelius-erfort.bsky.social
Cornelius Erfort @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social · May 20
I'm on my way to Mannheim, looking forward to talk about our forecasting project (zweitstimme.org) with @hannahrajski.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online 🤗
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
gessunimannheim.bsky.social
Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - GESS @gessunimannheim.bsky.social · May 16
📣 If you are interested in election forecasting, cancel your plans!
CDSS doctoral candidate @hannahrajski.bsky.social and co-author Dr. @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social will be sharing their work at the MZES Social Science Data Lab.

Time, location, and abstract below. Don’t miss it.
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · May 15
🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches"

👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)

🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · May 16
Looking forward to presenting our latest insights from forecasting the German federal election (zweitstimme.org) with @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online!
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · May 15
🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches"

👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)

🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
aleininger.bsky.social
Arndt Leininger @aleininger.bsky.social · May 2
New #openaccess "Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system: The 2021 German federal election as a test case" (with Andreas Murr, @lstoetze.bsky.social and @markkayser.bsky.social) in International Journal of Forecasting. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij... 1/
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
johnkenny.bsky.social
John Kenny @johnkenny.bsky.social · Apr 15
New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with Michael Lewis-Beck. We show that political economy models - based on inflation rate, government/prime minister approval, and the number of terms in office - performed well in forecasting CON vote share ahead of the 2024 GE
doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
mzesunimannheim.bsky.social
MZES Uni Mannheim @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social · Apr 15
❗ Reminder:
Apply now for a fellowship at the MZES, University of Mannheim!
📅 Deadline: 26 April
❗ Please note the updated link 😊👇🏻
www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...
Image of the job ad. Please see link for full information.
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
nilssteiner.bsky.social
Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · Mar 17
As speakers of the @dvpw.bsky.social's working group Elections and Public Opinion, we invite proposals for a special issue on the 2025 German federal election (to be submitted to Electoral Studies).

See: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a...

Also see the previous SI: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...
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hannahrajski.bsky.social
Hannah Rajski @hannahrajski.bsky.social · Feb 25
Die Bürger:innen waren wirklich ziemlich gut. Hier eine ausführlichere Evaluation zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/e...
Wir haben bisher nur Gewinner:innen auf Wahlkreisebene veröffentlicht. Erststimmenverteilungen haben wir auch abgefragt, da waren die Zahlen aber deutlich schlechter.
Wie gut waren die Bürger:innenprognosen?
Nach der Wahl ist die Zeit gekommen, unsere Bürger:innenprognosen zu evaluieren. Wie nah lagen die Bürger:innen am tatsächlichen Wahlergebnis? Überblick Bei den Zweitstimmen war die Bürger:innenprogno...
zweitstimme.org
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Reposted by Hannah Rajski
lstoetze.bsky.social
Lukas Stoetzer @lstoetze.bsky.social · Feb 22
Was denken eigentlich Wähler:innen, wie die Wahl ausgeht?

@hannahrajski.bsky.social hat auf zweitstimme.org unsere Bürger:innen Vorhersage mit ~20'000 Befragten beschrieben.

zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/c...
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