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Ilari Ilmakunnas

@ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social

950 followers 720 following 140 posts

Senior researcher @ Finnish Centre for Pensions. PhD. Poverty, Social Policy, Policy Evaluation, Life Course, Retirement. Member of Evaluation Working Group of Finnish social security reform. Orienteering. https://sites.google.com/view/ilariilmakunnas

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · May 23

Jatkoin kirjoitussarjaani blogin puolella. Tällä kertaa raapaisen pintaa koskien sitä, mitä ongelmia syntyy, kun ei ole pohdittu tarkasti, mitä muuttujia on lisätty regressiomalliin. ilmakunnas.wordpress.com/2025/05/23/k...

Kuvailevan tutkimuksen tekeminen ei poista tarvetta pohtia muuttujien välisiä suhteita (kirjoitussarjan 2. osa)

Usein sosiaalitieteellisissä tutkimuksissa kuvataan, kuinka tutkimus on kuvaileva ja pyrkii vain havainnollistamaan muuttujien välisiä yhteyksiä syy-seuraussuhteiden sijasta. Vaikka tämä pitääkin u…

ilmakunnas.wordpress.com

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 2d

No en sikäli, että onhan tuossa tuo nuo eläkemaksut aika ytimessä. Mutta toki rahastoinnilla jotain vaikutusta tilanteeseen olisi, vaikka olisikin vaikea määrittää "juurisyyksi". Ei rahastointia TyEL:n puolellakaan olla purkamassa.

Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 6d

Tämä oli hyvä juttu yrittäjien eläkevakuuttamisesta. Vaikka sisältää julkkiskärjen, tosin ihan mielenkiintoisia esimerkkejä siinäkin. Juttu tuo hyvin esille Suomen Yrittäjien ja Mikro- ja yksinyrittäjät ry:n täysin päinvastaiset näkökulmat YEL:n kehittämiseen. www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/a/b4...

Kolmesataa tonnia palkkaa, 362 euroa eläkkeeseen – Tämän takia veronmaksajat rahoittavat yrittäjäeläkkeitä puolella miljardilla eurolla

Yrittäjien eläkkeet kuumentavat tunteita, ja moni yrittäjä pitää järjestelmää epäoikeudenmukaisena. Kauppalehden lista näyttää, ketkä julkisuudesta tunnetut yrittäjät maksoivat suuria palkkoja mutta p...

www.kauppalehti.fi

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Acta Sociologica @actasociologica.bsky.social · 7d

👉 New comment out 👀

Garritzmann, Häusermann and Palier argue that the key problem of the ongoing debate is that scholars and politicians refer to social investment as if it was one single type of policy, whereas there are quite different variants of this paradigm.

doi.org/10.1177/0001...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

doi.org

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

Marcel Raab @raabm.bsky.social · 14d

This webinar introduced me to the new Python package sequenzo! Like many in the SA community, I currently only use R for my analyses. I tried to harness sequenzo's power from within R and put together a small tutorial that might be interesting for R users: sa-book.github.io/bonus_sequen...

Sequence Analysis - Companion Site: SA with Python and sequenzo

Running sequenzo from R using reticulate

sa-book.github.io

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

PNAS Nexus @pnasnexus.org · 21d

A Dutch study explores a key barrier to social integration: strong in-group preferences. One hopeful exception: young people don’t have strong preferences for people of their own ethnicity when it comes to sports activities. In PNAS Nexus: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

Street soccer championship in The Hague, Netherlands, 2010.

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Tilastokeskus @stat.fi · 15d

15–74-vuotiaiden työttömyysasteen trendiluku nousi elokuussa 10,0 %:iin. ”Yhtä korkeaa työttömyysastetta ei löydy työvoimatutkimuksen nykyisestä, vuodesta 2009 alkavasta trendisarjasta”, kertoo Tilastokeskuksen yliaktuaari Joanna Viinikka uutisessa.
📰 stat.fi/fi/uutinen/T...
#työttömyys

Valokuvassa TE-palveluiden kyltti, taustalla harmaa toimistorakennus.

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 16d

Also product of some statistical practices (e.g. controlling for mediators), e.g. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

IS HAPPINESS U-SHAPED IN AGE EVERYWHERE? A METHODOLOGICAL RECONSIDERATION FOR EUROPE | National Institute Economic Review | Cambridge Core

IS HAPPINESS U-SHAPED IN AGE EVERYWHERE? A METHODOLOGICAL RECONSIDERATION FOR EUROPE - Volume 263

www.cambridge.org

Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 16d

"Social investments, in contrast, are usually still treated as one big box and as one supposedly coherent policy approach, which defies the complexity of reality and renders discussions unproductive"

Julian Garritzmann @garritzmannj.bsky.social · 16d

Can we have 8 min of your time please?

@siljahausermann.bsky.social @bpalier.bsky.social & I wrote a very brief reflection on why social investment might be a misleading paradigm. Way forward: please distinguish different types of social investments!

More here journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Social investment—A (mis)leading paradigm? Why we need to distinguish different types of social investments - Julian Garritzmann, Silja Häusermann, Bruno Palier, 2025

Social investment has become a buzzword among social policy-makers and welfare state scholars alike. Social investments seem to be the natural social policy res...

journals.sagepub.com

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 17d

There is no world in which it is normal for the president to publicly call upon his attorney general to hurry up and prosecute his political foes. It’s like the Watergate tapes but posted on social media. Let’s get a grip on what’s happening here.

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Yoshiko Herrera @yoshikoherrera.bsky.social · 20d

Respectfully disagree: 1) in fact it is unusual for a democracy w/ this level of GDP to turn authoritarian & so quickly; 2) the weakness of both institutions (congress & courts) and individuals (Schumer etc) is shocking. Would take less than 10 people in congress or 2 SC justices to stop all this.

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 20d

What America is going through is not unusual in historical terms. Plenty of examples like it today elsewhere in the world.
What makes it unusual is the rapid collapse from a set of widely espoused norms and values that centered on liberty. It is the sacking of the shining city on hill that shocks.

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

Hannu Karhunen @hannukarhunen.bsky.social · 21d

Lukekaahan läpi tämä mainio Tuomon ja Juuson analyysi!

Mikä on tutkintotodistuksesi tuotto? Koulutusasteiden, -sektorien ja -alojen väliset tuloerot 2015–2023 - Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan eri koulutusasteilta, -sektoreilta ja -aloilta valmistuneiden 35–40-vuotiaiden suomalaisten välisten tuloerojen kehitystä vuosina 2015–2023. Tulokset perustuvat regressioan...

labore.fi

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21d

Agree on the value of peer review but it has rarely changed a finding for me. I've also observed that most work finds publication somewhere no matter how wrong, but the degree of wrongness usually dictates the outlet.

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Thomas Piketty @thomaspiketty.bsky.social · 21d

📆 Save the date: the 3rd edition of the World Inequality Conference will take place on 4–5 June 2026 at Paris School of Economics @pse.bsky.social

The call for papers is open until December 1.

🔗 More details & submission: inequalitylab.world/en/event/wor...

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 21d

You would not consider LLMs to have any value in writing (e.g., translating or editing) if you should start writing your papers in non-native language?

Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 21d

Tämä tapa, jossa saa nuolen ylöspäin tai alaspäin, jo 0,1 prosenttiyksikön muutoksella on surkea. Melkeinpä datan väärinkäyttöä.

Heikki Sairanen @heikkisairanen.bsky.social · 21d

Onpa sekava tapa esittää tuoreita gallupeja. Toivon paluuta vanhaan.

www.hs.fi/politiikka/a...

HS-gallup | Sdp:n kaula kokoomukseen kasvaa

Muutokset tuoreessa mittauksessa ovat pieniä. Kokoomus on menettänyt hivenen kannatustaan ja perussuomalaiset kasvattanut saman verran.

www.hs.fi

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Reposted by Ilari Ilmakunnas

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Jul 16

1. Kevin Gross and I just posted a new science-of-science preprint.

This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.

Will anyone review this paper? Screening, sorting, and the feedback cycles that imperil peer review

Scholarly publishing relies on peer review to identify the best science. Yet finding willing and qualified reviewers to evaluate manuscripts has become an increasingly challenging task, possibly even ...

arxiv.org

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Samuel Perry @profsamperry.bsky.social · 23d

Religiosity & gender attitudes go hand-in-hand. But which influences which?

New study by McElroy et al. shows earlier gender views tend to predict religious trajectories more than the reverse (except for young women).

Once again:

Cultural/political conflicts --> Religion
doi.org/10.1177/2378...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 25d

"French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults" - extraordinary

By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/d419...

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 27d

Jaa-a, mutta varsin meritoituneita taloustietelijöitä noissa tutkimuksissa ainakin on mukana. Mutta ehkä psykologian tutkimuksen kaltaiset ongelmat vaivaavat taloustiedettäkin. En ole erityisellä tarkkuudella kuitenkaan kyseisiä tutkimuksia selannut.

Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · 27d

Aihe on itse asiassa virittänyt empiiristä tuoretta tutkimusta: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Guiltily indebted? How a word is linked to individual borrowing

Using data from the World Values Survey, we show that individuals who speak a language in which the same word is used for both (financial) debt and (moral) guilt have a statistically significant an...

www.tandfonline.com

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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 27d

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.

"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."

(with A+ co-authors)

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Anna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 29d

A privilege to co-author with the brilliant @alessandrabasso.bsky.social whose mastery of economics of inequality and its philosophy is unparalleled. Our general point: indicators always have more than one ideal to serve, so will have to prioritise and hence sacrifice #philsci #econsky #measurement

Measurement requires compromises: the case of economic inequality

We examine considerations that enter into design and evaluation of measures in social science, categorizing them into four drivers: epistemic, ethical…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · Sep 8

Remember, if you encounter what seems like an implausible survey finding, ask:
1. Were survey respondents selected randomly or was this an opt-in poll?
2. Could the results, especially for young adults, be driven by bogus respondents?

Keep this post in mind: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... 🧪

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Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · Sep 8

So we have a measure that some use as a poverty measure, some do not. And everyone ends up avoiding the difficult discussion on how should we officially nationally define and measure poverty.

Ilari Ilmakunnas @ilmakunnasilari.bsky.social · Sep 8

Sure. Hard to argue against that it would not be followed. At the same time, the official national statistical authority avoids using the word poverty (low income) and explicitly says that there is no official poverty measure.

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