Jack Bailey
@jack-bailey.co.uk
3.9K followers 1.9K following 1.1K posts
Political Scientist at the University of Manchester 🌐 Website: https://www.jack-bailey.co.uk 📓 Notebook: https://publish.obsidian.md/jackbailey
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jack-bailey.co.uk
🧵 The Gallagher index is the industry standard measure of disproportionality in political science 📈

What values do you think it can take? 📏

In my new paper, I show something surprising: under democratic conditions, it can never exceed 1 / √2 ≈ 0.707
jack-bailey.co.uk
Hypothetically, an extreme anti-democratic party could win 100% of seats under FPTP on even less than 25%. If there are 100 evenly-sized parties, it could win on only 1% of the vote!
makevotesmatter.bsky.social
Under First Past the Post, an extreme, even anti-democratic party can take full power on a fraction of the vote - without the consent of the majority.

In these troubled times, we shouldn't take our rights and freedoms for granted.

That's another reason why we need Proportional Representation.
jack-bailey.co.uk
And they seem oblivious to the party system they now inhabit and the effect that it has on the media ecosystem too. Sure, in a two-party system you can take *some* exposure for granted as the official opposition. Not sure that's true in a ≈ five-party system...
Reposted by Jack Bailey
benansell.bsky.social
Somebody help me, my electoral system, he is very sick
chadbourn.bsky.social
New YouGov Westminster poll:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
jack-bailey.co.uk
Otherwise, how would our students learn?
jack-bailey.co.uk
That's absolutely insane. We have to thank these people for giving us good examples of what not to do though!
jack-bailey.co.uk
To be fair, their terrible electoral system was responsible for the first one
Reposted by Jack Bailey
pwgtennant.bsky.social
You shouldn't use change scores in randomised controlled trials. And you really shouldn't use them in observational studies. So please please don't use them in target trial emulations!

link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Emulation of a Target Trial of Antihypertensive Medications on Weight Change - Journal of General Internal Medicine
Background Weight gain after starting antihypertensive medications is a frequent concern for patients, but there is limited data on expected weight change after initiation of these medications. A comparative effectiveness trial to evaluate this outcome would not be feasible. Objective To estimate and compare average weight change under initiating and adhering to commonly prescribed, first-line antihypertensive medications as monotherapy by emulating a target trial. Design Retrospective observational cohort study over 24 months of follow-up using electronic health records (EHR). Participants 141,260 patients prescribed one of seven antihypertensives between 2010 and 2019 across 8 US health systems. Main Outcome and Measures We examined mean weight change associated with initiation of and adherence to amlodipine, atenolol, hydrochlorothiazide, losartan, metoprolol, or propranolol, relative to lisinopril, at 6, 12, and 24 months after initiation. To adjust for baseline confounding and informative outcome measurement, we used inverse probability weighting with repeated outcome marginal structural models. Key Results After baseline and time-varying covariate adjustment, initiation of and adherence to lisinopril were associated with mean weight loss at 6 months (− 0.69 kg, 95% CI − 0.92, − 0.47), 12 months (− 0.58 kg, 95% CI − 1.05, − 0.30), and 24 months (− 1.121 kg, 95% CI − 2.013, − 0.46). Compared to lisinopril, the estimated 6-month weight change was higher for patients prescribed hydrochlorothiazide (0.68 kg, 95% CI 0.31, 1.04), losartan (0.54 kg, 95% CI 0.17, 0.93), metoprolol (1.38 kg, 95% CI 0.95, 1.76), and propranolol (1.03 kg, 95% CI 0.346, 1.62). At 12 months, metoprolol (1.74 kg, 95% CI 1.03, 2.41) and propranolol (1.72 kg, 95% CI 0.06, 3.235) continued to show higher weight change compared to lisinopril. Conclusion We observed small differences in weight change across antihypertensive medications, with lisinopril leading to weight loss and metoprolol and propranolol to modest weight gain. Clinicians should consider potential weight gain when selecting antihypertensive medications.
link.springer.com
jack-bailey.co.uk
It's too early for such a bad take.
Reposted by Jack Bailey
cristianfarias.com
This video of Chicagoans intervening to save a man from being abducted off the streets by ICE is making the rounds on Instagram.

Community action works.

Source: www.instagram.com/reel/DPZL2AL...
Reposted by Jack Bailey
lmorgenbesser.bsky.social
The speed by which America collapsed into authoritarian rule is the most shocking thing. Faster than other contemporary cases. Faster than the alleged “dictator’s playbook” suggests. So fast we *shouldn’t* call it “competitive authoritarianism.” It may be worse than that.
jack-bailey.co.uk
This would also solve the annoying problem of not knowing who to call!
Reposted by Jack Bailey
wartranslated.bsky.social
The Albanian Prime Minister picked up on the theme of "ending the war between 'Aber-Baijan' and Albania." Edi Rama joked while greeting French President Emmanuel Macron and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Reposted by Jack Bailey
queersatanic.bsky.social
Wow, the University of Washington's Psych 201 class does *not* play

go fuckin Huskies

Nazi UW students fuck off
Reposted by Jack Bailey
philswatton.bsky.social
The thing I most hate about this kind of reasoning is that it regards the question of whether or not Farage is a racist as unimportant or incidental. All that matters is what an imagined median voter likes right now. Politics as anything other than triangulation regarded as a misstep.
jack-bailey.co.uk
Weird question, but do I know anyone who speaks Slovenian?
jack-bailey.co.uk
JB Pritzker seems to do a good job, but it's a sad indictment of US politics that one of the only shining lights it has is the mirror universe version of Donald Trump: another billionaire, from another wealthy family, but who supports the Democrats.
jack-bailey.co.uk
And let me just add that you should come to Manchester and study with me and my excellent colleagues
chanret.bsky.social
Time for an explainer on how to get funding for a PhD in the UK (1/n)
Reposted by Jack Bailey
chanret.bsky.social
Time for an explainer on how to get funding for a PhD in the UK (1/n)
jack-bailey.co.uk
Talk about an opening paragraph. About sums it up!
jack-bailey.co.uk
I'm trying to read something on Kortext and have come to understand "enshitification". What a terrible user experience. No wonder our students don't do the reading!
jack-bailey.co.uk
Yeah, NGL I’d move there in a heartbeat if a job came up!
jack-bailey.co.uk
Or worse never come in the first place!
jack-bailey.co.uk
I worked at Conor at LSE before I became an academic. A brilliant and kind man. I was only there for a couple of years, but he went out of his way to make opportunities for me and to support me.