Josh Huder
@joshhuder.bsky.social
Political scientist posting mostly about Congress. Senior Fellow at The Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, McCourt School of Public Policy.
1st: This would be among the most dramatic events in US history.
2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power.
3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back?
4th: Johnson... no bueno.
Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.
2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power.
3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back?
4th: Johnson... no bueno.
Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.
PUNCHBOWL: “.. GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term. Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 4:21 PM
1st: This would be among the most dramatic events in US history.
2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power.
3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back?
4th: Johnson... no bueno.
Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.
2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power.
3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back?
4th: Johnson... no bueno.
Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.
Mike Johnson announces, as emperor, that he has no clothes.
It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes.
www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...
It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes.
www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...
November 21, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Mike Johnson announces, as emperor, that he has no clothes.
It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes.
www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...
It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes.
www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...
Trump never had total control. It's easy to overlook his failure on recess appointments, the Dept of "War," most budget cuts, among many, many others. When he asks, he often does not receive.
What's increasingly slipped is his ability to prevent resistance to unilateral acts.
What's increasingly slipped is his ability to prevent resistance to unilateral acts.
November 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Trump never had total control. It's easy to overlook his failure on recess appointments, the Dept of "War," most budget cuts, among many, many others. When he asks, he often does not receive.
What's increasingly slipped is his ability to prevent resistance to unilateral acts.
What's increasingly slipped is his ability to prevent resistance to unilateral acts.
There is quite a bit of Republican pushback to Trump's attempt to gut the Department of Education, not just from moderates but from the Appropriations subcommittee chair.
November 19, 2025 at 1:02 PM
There is quite a bit of Republican pushback to Trump's attempt to gut the Department of Education, not just from moderates but from the Appropriations subcommittee chair.
How's Mike Johnson's speakership going?
Well, his members don't trust he'll do his job and transmit the Epstein bill to the Senate after it passes. So there's that.
Well, his members don't trust he'll do his job and transmit the Epstein bill to the Senate after it passes. So there's that.
November 18, 2025 at 2:26 PM
How's Mike Johnson's speakership going?
Well, his members don't trust he'll do his job and transmit the Epstein bill to the Senate after it passes. So there's that.
Well, his members don't trust he'll do his job and transmit the Epstein bill to the Senate after it passes. So there's that.
If you can't stop a bill from passing but want the Senate to ignore it, you try to keep passage below 2/3rds (290).*
If >300 members vote to release the Epstein files, the Senate will have an awful hard time ignoring it.
If >300 members vote to release the Epstein files, the Senate will have an awful hard time ignoring it.
So, as far as I can tell Trump executed his U.S. turn strategy on the Epstein files and urged how passage expecting that either 1, the senate republicans never takes up the bill or 2, if republican leader does allow a vote that they keep the total under 60 so it dies. Heckuva gamble
November 17, 2025 at 4:06 PM
If you can't stop a bill from passing but want the Senate to ignore it, you try to keep passage below 2/3rds (290).*
If >300 members vote to release the Epstein files, the Senate will have an awful hard time ignoring it.
If >300 members vote to release the Epstein files, the Senate will have an awful hard time ignoring it.
The minority party can and did shut down the government under the existing Senate rules and precedents. The system described below does not exist (yet). This view casually dismisses the intercurrence sustaining the filibuster and the politics necessary to facilitate historic change in Congress.
The minority party cannot shut down the government. It is impossible. They don’t have the power.
A party that controls the House, Senate, and White House can decide it’d rather not do something on its own and pretend that’s the fault of some minority Senators, thereby shutting down the government.
A party that controls the House, Senate, and White House can decide it’d rather not do something on its own and pretend that’s the fault of some minority Senators, thereby shutting down the government.
November 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
The minority party can and did shut down the government under the existing Senate rules and precedents. The system described below does not exist (yet). This view casually dismisses the intercurrence sustaining the filibuster and the politics necessary to facilitate historic change in Congress.
Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
November 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Reposted by Josh Huder
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
November 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
November 10, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
Are Democrats supposed to keep the government closed forever? A minority party cannot force the majority to act responsibly.
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Are Democrats supposed to keep the government closed forever? A minority party cannot force the majority to act responsibly.
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 1:28 PM
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
Republicans won't nuke the filibuster because they don't want to vote much (most?) of Trump's agenda. Why go on the record about unpopular policies when you can silently kill them instead?
November 10, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Republicans won't nuke the filibuster because they don't want to vote much (most?) of Trump's agenda. Why go on the record about unpopular policies when you can silently kill them instead?
Look, Pelosi was a great leader but that included a ruthless streak that mired numerous political careers to stay on top for over 20 years and in office for almost 40.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
November 7, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Look, Pelosi was a great leader but that included a ruthless streak that mired numerous political careers to stay on top for over 20 years and in office for almost 40.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Speaker Nancy Pelosi: A Master of the House
This article analyzes the record of Nancy Pelosi’s four terms as Speaker of the House of Representatives. It evaluates her performance through three main lenses: as a party leader, institutional leade...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:40 PM
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
If by guardian, he means literally removing the House of Representatives' from any governing role on tariffs and other matters, sure.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Mike Johnson on the tariffs case before SCOTUS: "I'm cheering for the president that the executive will win on this. Now, I say that as a jealous guardian of the legislative branch of government, Article 1."
November 6, 2025 at 1:51 PM
If by guardian, he means literally removing the House of Representatives' from any governing role on tariffs and other matters, sure.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Senator Tuberville has made some pretty epic tactical blunders during his time in the Senate. But, he gets this one spot on: Americans do not care about Senate rules.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
November 6, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Senator Tuberville has made some pretty epic tactical blunders during his time in the Senate. But, he gets this one spot on: Americans do not care about Senate rules.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Reposted by Josh Huder
Look, I love polling, considerably more than most people. But if you start crafting an agenda from what polls well, rather than starting with what a better world looks like, one that connects to the general public's needs, and how you get from here to there, then you have no business in politics
November 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Look, I love polling, considerably more than most people. But if you start crafting an agenda from what polls well, rather than starting with what a better world looks like, one that connects to the general public's needs, and how you get from here to there, then you have no business in politics
Since 1980, winning a popular vote majority in presidential elections is fairly rare. Democrats only won it 3 times in 45 years.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
One time. The GOP has won more than 50% of the popular vote <one time> since 1992. And yet, every day, you are bombarded with Takes™️ from Ezra Douthglesias about how deeply unpopular The Democrats and their policy platform are, without any reflection on how the same standard applies to the GOP.
The Dems have won the popular vote in presidential elections six times since 1992 by roughly 5.5%(1992), 8.5%,(1996) .5%(2000), 7.3%(2008), 4%(2012), 2%(2016),and 4.5%(2020).
In that period the GOP presidential candidate has won the popular vote twice: 2.5%(2004) and 1.5%(2024).
In that period the GOP presidential candidate has won the popular vote twice: 2.5%(2004) and 1.5%(2024).
November 4, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Since 1980, winning a popular vote majority in presidential elections is fairly rare. Democrats only won it 3 times in 45 years.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
Who is staffing this anonymous Republican senator who claims Congress doesn't have a role in deciding what constitutes an emergency?
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
October 29, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Who is staffing this anonymous Republican senator who claims Congress doesn't have a role in deciding what constitutes an emergency?
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
New Congress, Two Beers In! We discuss the shutdown, Congress’s spending power, enduring constitutional fights, the Epstein files, and Rep-Elect Grijalva. Listen here! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Shutdown Again! And other sundry things.
Podcast Episode · The Government Affairs Institute · 10/24/2025 · 33m
podcasts.apple.com
October 27, 2025 at 3:35 PM
New Congress, Two Beers In! We discuss the shutdown, Congress’s spending power, enduring constitutional fights, the Epstein files, and Rep-Elect Grijalva. Listen here! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The separation of powers rests not solely on politicians wanting power, but politicians wanting power because their constituent and political interests differ from other branches.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The Founders anticipated the possibility of a corrupt, venal, lawbreaking, wannabe monarch president.
What they did not expect is numerous people achieving prominent national office and not wanting to guard their own power. The combo of ego to run but pathetic absence of ego in office stands out.
What they did not expect is numerous people achieving prominent national office and not wanting to guard their own power. The combo of ego to run but pathetic absence of ego in office stands out.
October 25, 2025 at 11:58 PM
The separation of powers rests not solely on politicians wanting power, but politicians wanting power because their constituent and political interests differ from other branches.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
Substack has reinvigorated long-form blogging, which has been great.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
October 9, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Substack has reinvigorated long-form blogging, which has been great.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.