Steven S Smith
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profstevensmith.bsky.social
Steven S Smith
@profstevensmith.bsky.social

Political scientist, ASU and Wash U. Congress, elections, public opinion, survey research. Husband, dad, granddad. RT ≠ endorsement. Personal views. https://stevesnotes.substack.com https://sites.wustl.edu/smith/

Steven S. Smith is Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University. He also is the Kate M. Gregg Emeritus Professor of Social Sciences and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis. For many years, he was the Director of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy, He served on the faculties of George Washington University, Northwestern University, and the University of Minnesota and was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Smith is one of the leading scholars of legislative institutions and congressional politics and is cited frequently by major news sources. He served as editor of Legislative Studies Quarterly and chaired the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. He won the Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award from the American Political Science Association in 2023. .. more

Political science 62%
Business 12%

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

Before marrying V.O. Key, Cora Luella Gettys was one of the first women to receive a PhD in political science. In addition to publications in her own name, she was an RA to many political scientists in the "Chicago School" in the 20s & 30s, and edited without authorship VO's most influential books.

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

Under Mike Johnson, a rarely used House tool has gone mainstream
Under Mike Johnson, a rarely used House tool has gone mainstream
Five discharge petitions have been completed since the Louisiana Republican became speaker — more than in the prior 30 years combined.
dlvr.it

Support Ukraine!

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

After watching an episode of Slow Horses tonight, I said, let's see what's up with Ken Burns' Revolution. All I can say is, whatever possessed him to think that the best way to get Americans to think seriously about the legacy of the Revolution is to review the history of the Revolutionary War?
I've had a missile blow up next to my airplane, been shot at dozens of times by anti-aircraft fire, and launched into orbit — all for my country. I never thought I'd see a President call for my execution.

Trump doesn’t understand the Constitution, and we're all less safe for it.

Ann Larabee, Dynamite Fiend; Erik Larson, The Devil in the White City
NEWS: During a hearing in federal court in VA, prosecutors confirmed that the operative indictment in the case against James Comey was never shown to or voted on by the entire grand jury before it was presented in open court.

Defense counsel argued that’s a complete bar to further prosecution
new paper by Sean Westwood:

With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research

So Senate Democratic Eight, what have you done to us?
President Deals wants you to negotiate directly with health insurers over your monthly premium. Or to haggle with your doctor over the cost of your appointment. Or both, it's not really clear.

(Nobody has ever asked for this)

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

President Deals wants you to negotiate directly with health insurers over your monthly premium. Or to haggle with your doctor over the cost of your appointment. Or both, it's not really clear.

(Nobody has ever asked for this)

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

Flashback: Jason Chaffetz Eats a Burger
YouTube video by Roll Call
youtu.be

GEM for the pin, but I'll take a 700-member House for now.

Thune didn't want a civil war among Rs over nuking the filibuster in a tactical or strategic way.

Actually, Rs have become quite adept at squeezing most of their agenda in filibuster-free reconciliation bills. Add appropriations rescissions to the mix, and they have the simple-majority tools to do 90 percent of what they want.

Kaine's op-ed over-explains his decision to end the CR filibuster. I don't believe for a minute that Kaine gave much weight to the possible demise of the filibuster by the Rs. Besides, Repubs hate Obamacare at least as much as the shutdown and were not about to nuke the filibuster to get it done.
Heaven forbid the Republicans get rid of the filibuster…
Heaven forbid the Republicans get rid of the filibuster…

"Control" is not in the lexicon of a Senate floor leader in describing his relationship with party colleagues. Never has been. Not even LBJ. But PR is something that a leader is expected to manage well. Schumer rose over Durbin for this reason, but he doesn't get a passing grade in this episode.

The killer ACA exchange premium rates will have been in effect for a month by then if there's no legislation. Let's see how the Senate moderates fight for ACA tax credits. Some Senate Repubs are primed to move far right with a new Trumpian policy.

Buried inside the deal to reopen government is a provision that would give Senators private right of action to sue for millions in damages over their phone records being analyzed by Jack Smith's team.
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
Shutdown Deal Would Let Senators Sue Over Jack Smith Searches
Senators whose phone records were sought by Special Counsel Jack Smith would gain authority to sue for millions in damages under a provision buried in the Senate-advanced deal to reopen the government...
news.bloomberglaw.com

Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.

Yep

[Political science: Multidimensionality in tiny doses--treated as error in scaling models--but that is where legislative fights are often fought.]

So far, I have heard four distinct reasons for supporting the deal from the eight Democrats. Some rationalization, sure, but, as usual, real multidimensionality, too.
The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.

The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.

Nope. Money goes to consumers (presumably, those eligible for today's exchanges), who in turn buy insurance plans, but without subsidies.

You'll be shopping for insurance plans, not treatments.

So the Trump plan to end handing money to the insurance companies is to hand that money to the insurance companies.
Trump: "I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE."

Far right taking up the nuclear option cause.
Trump on eliminating the filibuster:
“If we do it, we will never lose the midterms. And we will never lose the general election,”
And btw:
Russ Vought has now joined the 'nuke the filibuster'
chorus
Project 2025 is just humming along, kids

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

Trump on eliminating the filibuster:
“If we do it, we will never lose the midterms. And we will never lose the general election,”
And btw:
Russ Vought has now joined the 'nuke the filibuster'
chorus
Project 2025 is just humming along, kids