John Oxley
@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
13K followers 3.7K following 7.5K posts
Commentator, writer, corporate/political strategy. Undertaking an MSc in International Security and Global Governance at Birkbeck. The only Tory on Bluesky, but that's why you love me. Newsletter at: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
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joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
And just think, you can read me being right about everything for less than a central London pint a month..

www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
What if we pay pensioners to round up the migrants?
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Had great fun doing this - despite that deeply unfortunate screen capture!
aaronhughellis.bsky.social
New ep! I talk to @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk about how to save the Conservative Party

linktr.ee/strategyaaron
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Yeah, this has been my "most viable route" for a while now.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Think an underpriced 2029 scenario is "ungovernable mess".
robfordmancs.bsky.social
Four parties within a 5 point swing of first place and five parties on 12% plus.

This would be pure chaos under first past the post.
electionmaps.uk
Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
The look on their faces when the NHS access gets put on the British bill of rights will be *priceless*
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
If someone is LOTO you are one recession away from them becoming PM and, well, time to take a big sip of coffee and look at the global economic risks...
deargodwhatnow.bsky.social
Regardless of whether you like him this is a silly argument, as a party leader always has a decent chance of becoming Prime Minister and/or deeply shaping the culture of the country
paulbernal.bsky.social
A Tory party under Jenrick might take a few of the racist votes from Reform, but they’d haemorrhage bucketloads to the Lib Dems.

So, on balance…
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
**taps mic**

"So, where do you sit?"

"The Rod Hull Courts of Justice."
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Didn't they then retcon him to be Ukrainian?
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Best post I think I'll see today.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Imagine if doctors still voted for them...
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Yeah, I have thought for a while that in another decade or so the Tory retrospectives will look more at "only won one decent sized majority after 1987".
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Part of the problem of the Conservative Party is that they forget the internal party pressures to get on board with Brexit don't apply to the people who might, demographically, otherwise vote for them.
stephenkb.bsky.social
Yes - gonna write on this in my newsletter tomorrow - in some ways the most significant comment at conference is the *shadow business secretary* going 'ooooh, Brexit was good' - if you want to be a party of successful people in their 30s, 40s and 50s you can't be out of sync with them on this!
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Think you have a real problem when for the sort of people you need to staff a party you are none of (I) the party they agree with, (II) a clear route to holding power or (III) a nice segue into better private sector jobs.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Think you have a real problem when for the sort of people you need to staff a party you are none of (I) the party they agree with, (II) a clear route to holding power or (III) a nice segue into better private sector jobs.
stephenkb.bsky.social
Just as the level of 'the basic quality of what they produce', not on a 'do I agree with this?' basis the Tory party is coming out with stuff far beneath the quality of what the Lib Dems 2019-24 managed when their 'costing process' was 'one bright guy called JJ'. Where does the Short money GO?
oldtrotter.bsky.social
The Tory Party has gone mad..
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Or "Farage is devoured by the spirits he has stoked"
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
The thing is, I'm not sure that "Farage wins, then discovers fiscal gravity" isn't a situation that leads to things getting *even worse*.
jonnelledge.bsky.social
I do think the media is giving too much attention to the possibility of Farage winning an election that's nearly four years away. I also think it's underplaying the extremely high possibility that, even if he does, he immediately drowns in the same mire that swallowed Starmer and Sunak before him
financialtimes.com
Reform likely to raise Kent council tax after cost-cutting drive falters on.ft.com/4pTvJ62
Reposted by John Oxley
sophieehill.bsky.social
A thread of inspirational quotes from two of my idols: Kemi Badenoch and Ange Postecoglou

(uh-oh, I may have gotten some mixed up... or have I??)

🧵
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
I think the dreams off a chorus line of cigarettes doing a musical number around the room stopped about a decade in, so...
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
My mother still occasionally craves nicotine some (my age +/- a bit) years after stopping smoking.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Yeah, I think a big difference between the US v UK right is the ability to get a hard on for cruelty even in pursuit of policies they nominally support.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Small state Tories, back again
benansell.bsky.social
Otherwise the plan would be this. All UK citizens, all legal permanent residents, all legal visa holders & all tourists would need to provide facial ID to the government.

And the facial recognition system would need a zero % false positive rate. And then you simply flag anyone not in the system 3/n
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
The alarming fact is we have so many grifters because it's a demand-led business and loads of people/orgs pay no real scrutiny to what is actually said by the "big" names they hire.
samfr.bsky.social
Maybe time for corporates to stop paying him £20k a pop for "inspirational" speeches?

Heard of one school trust that paid him £10k *of taxpayer money* for one keynote...
roberthutton.co.uk
Might do a separate sketch on Matthew Syed's speech, which is the most batshit crazy thing I have heard from a conference stage in years. And believe me, I've seen some things.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Conservative Party becoming "make up a country in your head to get mad at".
peterwalker99.bsky.social
The UK is “madly left, madly liberal, hyper-progressive”, Syed says. This is a deeply odd speech, seemingly from yet another person who spends a lot of time on X.

[I deleted earlier post which had the typo of saying, 'US' rather than 'UK'.]
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Can confirm he *always* opens with this.
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
More closets than IKEA in that crowd, one suspects.
deargodwhatnow.bsky.social
Have to say, this is quite weird
joxley.jmoxley.co.uk
Scrub Mommy is, I regret, also available.