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Reform Party UK Exposed @reformexposed.bsky.social · 1h

Reform UK are out of step with the British public.

The public are opposed to withdrawing from the ECHR by 46% to 29%

What do Britons really think about leaving the ECHR? | YouGov

The public are opposed to withdrawing from the Convention by 46% to 29%

yougov.co.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1h

New report out from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey today, with new data on a wide range of issues, including constitutional preferences:

Independent in EU: 40%
Independent out EU: 8%
Devolution (w/ tax powers): 33%
Devolution (no tax powers): 8%
No Holyrood: 9%

natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research

This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

natcen.ac.uk

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Tim Durrant @timdurrant.bsky.social · 22h

As Conservative party conference closes, the Labour deputy leadership contest gets going in earnest: ballots are now open for party members.

@meganbryer.bsky.social has updated the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk explainer on the contest - all you need to know here:

The 2025 Labour Party deputy leader contest | Institute for Government

Angela Rayner has stepped down as deputy leader of the Labour Party, who will replace her? The ballot is now open.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 1d

No, it's not. It's all a lie. The blunt truth is across the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them.

Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 1d

Outstanding piece by Stephen Daisley.

Ethnicity is no barrier to Britishness - it's culture and integration.

That means 'smaller cohorts and aggressive integration policies' - and tackling the institutions that 'have amplified grievance narratives and radical anti-Western ideologies'.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 1d

Reminds me of the stuff Keir Hardie was throwing at my ancestors who came from Lithuania to Scotland. I really lament that they felt the need to change the family name and lose so much culture to assimilate.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 1d

A lot of discussion judging importance of degrees neglects this. Many disciplines cross-subsidise others. Just like with international student fees, someone will have to pick up the cost if there is government intervention.

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

At some point these imbeciles are going to realise that arts courses are *funding* the courses they do like and if they cut those places unis will just go bankrupt so no maths or science either.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 2d

I am very much of the same mind but I think, relative to Reform, they can at least hold onto more seats if they play up the risk of Reform/Labour and build credibility rather than move to the right. Badenoch is past being able to do this imo.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 3d

I’ve heard these lines for years and the serious question is why Scottish Labour has failed to seize on these failures and been able to win as the alternative. This isn’t me having a go, but it does come to mind when I see these lines.

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 3d

*gasp*

“Everyone thought we’d come in and there were going to be these huge costs we could cut away but there just aren’t,” said a third senior Reform cabinet member in Kent.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 3d

The timing of this style of leadership is awful as this is one of the few times it really looks like one of the main two parties may be overtaken. I suspect there are many Conservatives who view Reform as a risk, so surely the old “strong and stable” mantra makes more sense.

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rowan kaiser @rowan.monster · 5d

is this good

LLMs, he argues, already are at the scaling limits. “We don’t know exactly when LLMs might hit diminishing returns hard, because we don’t have a measure of the statistical complexity of language. To find out whether we have hit a wall we have to watch the LLM developers. If they release a model that cost 10x more, likely using 20x more compute than the previous one, and it’s not much better than what’s out there, then we’ve hit a wall,” he says.

And that’s what has happened: ChatGPT-3 cost $50 million, ChatGPT-4 cost $500 million and ChatGPT-5, costing $5 billion, was delayed and when released wasn’t noticeably better than the last version. It’s also easy for competitors to catch up.

“So, in summary; you can’t create an app with commercial value as it is either generic (games etc), which won’t sell, or it is regurgitated public domain (homework), or it is subject to copyright. It’s hard to advertise effectively, LLMs cost an exponentially larger amount to train each generation, with a rapidly diminishing gain in accuracy. There’s no moat on a model, so there’s little pricing power. And the people who use LLMs the most are using them to access compute that costs the developer more to provide than their monthly subscriptions,” he says.

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Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 6d

This is excellent from @samfriedman.bsky.social explaining why Lab seems to ignore that they’re losing more votes on left than right. Identity is SUCH a strong motive for them I agree- but, as the now old chestnut Brexitland shows- identity is SUCH an important motive for voters on their left too. 1

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 7d

New post:

"Identity Crisis"

Labour keeps trying to appeal to a lost white working class vote + alienating middle-class grads / ethnic minority voters that are a much bigger part of their coalition.

Why? And how can they rebuild their coalition more effectively?

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

Identity Crisis

How Labour can rebuild their voter coalition

open.substack.com

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 7d

As a (supposed) expert on parties & membership, I wouldn't myself call Labour members an "army of union officials, retired teachers and slightly odd students". But I loved @duncanrobinson.bsky.social's "The Labour Party is a place where memories are long and perspective is absent." Top essay title!

Labour has decided to stop punching its own voters

Sir Keir Starmer has embraced peace and love of the party’s hippy base

www.economist.com

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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 9d

On the morning of Keir Starmer's conference speech here's a new post on an odd psychopathology in British politics - our main parties don't like the people who vote for them - the dreaded Professional Managerial Class. And so they are acting out like a divorced dad seeking cooler voters. 1/n

British Politics' Midlife Crisis

Why British Parties Can't Make Peace with Their Actual Voters

benansell.substack.com

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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 9d

Notice that everywhere except Southern Europe, the middle class have proven to be a much more important part of the left's coalition than the working class since the early 2000s. Labour strategists are pining for the early 1980s. Even then working class Brits today are cleaners not miners. 9/n

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 13d

Fascinating - and wouldn't be at all surprised if this were the case in the UK too. (Source: www.zora.uzh.ch/server/api/c...)

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 13d

New @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social Scotland polling out now.

No voting intention, but clear ongoing declines in favourability towards Keir Starmer and Labour...

Labour’s ratings fall in Scotland while Reform UK continues to rise

Ipsos’ Scottish Political Pulse survey

www.ipsos.com

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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 14d

After years of making the running on immigration, Farage may this week have handed the initiative back to his opponents'. @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the unpopularity of Reform's proposals on ILR ukandeu.ac.uk/reforms-radi...

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 17d

Page long paragraphs are my nemesis.

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Lewis Miller @lewgmiller.bsky.social · 17d

Got a tshirt made for the first lecture with the first years

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17d

Reform are now coming after people with permanent residency. It'll be citizens next. No one is safe from authoritarian governments.

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Alison Stenning @alisonstenning.bsky.social · 18d

The financial realities of university life for some students; how do we imagine this funding system is fair, or conducive to a positive university experience for many?

My student loan doesn't cover my bills - so I wear my work uniform to lectures

As students struggle to cover the cost of university, the BBC speaks to young people to find out how they make it work.

www.bbc.co.uk

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zero @egrettt.bsky.social · 21d

"Foreign-born UK residents are much more likely to be of working age than the UK-born — and thus less of a fiscal burden. They tend to be healthier than the UK-born, and are much more likely to have a university degree. 75% have lived in the UK for more than 5 years and 90% speak good English."

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 21d

The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration on.ft.com/46p3BPl

The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration

It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there

on.ft.com

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 22d

Starmer’s job approval hit a new low. It now sits at -46 the lowest we’ve recorded, with just 17% saying the PM is doing a good job. Badenoch is on -23; Davey on -10 and Farage on -7.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22d

If the Tories had a different leader and any kind of strategic plan around rebuilding a centre-right vote this could all be quite helpful in getting rid of some of their most destructive influences.

But they don't, so it's just adding to their woes.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 22d

Looks like she's about to follow him out the door.

Miriam Cates: Kruger poses the Conservative Party a hard question - is it too broad a church? | Conservative Home

Of course members should treat each other with honour and respect, but genuine political disagreements are not a betrayal - especially when they are in the national interest.

conservativehome.com

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