Lucas Resende Carvalho
@lucas-res-car.bsky.social
EU Economic Policy | Europe's Future @ Bertelsmann Stiftung
Pinned
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
Mein Blick auf den MFR Vorschlag der Kommission für das ACI Quarterly: weniger Programme, mehr Wirkung, gezielte Investitionen in Wettbewerbsfähigkeit & mehr Flexibilität. 2026 wird ein Schlüsseljahr in den MFR-Verhandlungen.
audit-committee-institute.de/html/de/quar...
@bst-europe.bsky.social
audit-committee-institute.de/html/de/quar...
@bst-europe.bsky.social
Audit Committee Quarterly
Audit Committee Quarterly des Audit Committee Institute e.V. - Die vierteljährliche erscheinende Fachzeitschrift enthält Informationen zu aktuellen Fragestellungen rund um den Aufsichtsrat, Corporate Governance im Allgemeinen sowie relevante Entwicklungen
audit-committee-institute.de
January 8, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Mein Blick auf den MFR Vorschlag der Kommission für das ACI Quarterly: weniger Programme, mehr Wirkung, gezielte Investitionen in Wettbewerbsfähigkeit & mehr Flexibilität. 2026 wird ein Schlüsseljahr in den MFR-Verhandlungen.
audit-committee-institute.de/html/de/quar...
@bst-europe.bsky.social
audit-committee-institute.de/html/de/quar...
@bst-europe.bsky.social
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have.
How so? Short thread:
How so? Short thread:
December 19, 2025 at 8:49 AM
So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have.
How so? Short thread:
How so? Short thread:
Very insightful thread on why a reparations loan would be the most viable solution to the Ukraine financing problem.
Is Germany again dragging its feet and undermining a "simple" solution to the Ukraine financing problem, instead pushing the ubercomplex reparations loan?
It's a tempting eurocrisis reflex that if only there were a will in Berlin, there would be a better way.
But there isn't. Here is why:
It's a tempting eurocrisis reflex that if only there were a will in Berlin, there would be a better way.
But there isn't. Here is why:
December 16, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Very insightful thread on why a reparations loan would be the most viable solution to the Ukraine financing problem.
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Great to talk to @kirataylor.bsky.social about our paper on the challenges for European clean tech: listen to our chat on the Foresight Jolt podcast (a must listen, always!): foresightmedia.com/story/srolvn...
December 11, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Great to talk to @kirataylor.bsky.social about our paper on the challenges for European clean tech: listen to our chat on the Foresight Jolt podcast (a must listen, always!): foresightmedia.com/story/srolvn...
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
For electric vehicles transatlantic divergence is even more stark (left hand panel)
The US is essentially closed to Chinese EVs - given the 100% tariff and a de facto ban (US rules to prohibit the import of connected vehicle hardware and software systems).
The EU imports a lot of Chinese EVs.
The US is essentially closed to Chinese EVs - given the 100% tariff and a de facto ban (US rules to prohibit the import of connected vehicle hardware and software systems).
The EU imports a lot of Chinese EVs.
December 10, 2025 at 9:52 AM
For electric vehicles transatlantic divergence is even more stark (left hand panel)
The US is essentially closed to Chinese EVs - given the 100% tariff and a de facto ban (US rules to prohibit the import of connected vehicle hardware and software systems).
The EU imports a lot of Chinese EVs.
The US is essentially closed to Chinese EVs - given the 100% tariff and a de facto ban (US rules to prohibit the import of connected vehicle hardware and software systems).
The EU imports a lot of Chinese EVs.
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Between a rock and a hard place: Europe's clean tech industry is caught between Trump’s policies and Chinese pressure. #cleantech
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
December 9, 2025 at 12:37 PM
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
News from the best EU economic policy collaboration in town with @bertelsmannst.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.
This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.
This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.
Oops...we did it again: We partnered with @delorsberlin.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to bring to you the freshest analysis where Europe's clean tech sector stands and what to do to keep it cutting-edge. 👇
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
December 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
News from the best EU economic policy collaboration in town with @bertelsmannst.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.
This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.
This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Europe’s clean tech industry is caught between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity, and EU producers are in trouble.
A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Europe's Clean Tech Industry Between Trump’s Policies and Chinese Pressure
When presenting the Green Deal Industrial Plan in 2023, Ursula von der Leyen stated that “the race is on to determine who is going to be dominant in the clean tech market in the future”. In 2025, this...
bst-europe.eu
December 10, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Europe’s clean tech industry is caught between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity, and EU producers are in trouble.
A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel?
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Between a rock and a hard place: Europe's clean tech industry is caught between Trump’s policies and Chinese pressure. #cleantech
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
December 9, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel?
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
December 9, 2025 at 11:01 AM
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
New analysis with @cdgeiser.bsky.social: The EU’s current drive to cut red tape at all costs is weakening Europe. Last week’s failed vote on the Sustainability Omnibus in the European Parliament was the culmination of extreme pressure, poorly designed proposals and political polarisation. Thread:
EU-Nachhaltigkeitsregeln: Dieser Bürokratieabbau ist für die EU gefährlich
Will Brüssel seine Regulierung wirklich vereinfachen, sollte es umdenken, erklären zwei Wissenschaftler der Bertelsmann-Stiftung.
www.faz.net
October 30, 2025 at 3:02 PM
New analysis with @cdgeiser.bsky.social: The EU’s current drive to cut red tape at all costs is weakening Europe. Last week’s failed vote on the Sustainability Omnibus in the European Parliament was the culmination of extreme pressure, poorly designed proposals and political polarisation. Thread:
👇
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
October 24, 2025 at 11:21 AM
👇
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Thought-provoking piece by Bloomberg. With some points from my work.
The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought.
1/
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought.
1/
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Europe’s Season of Humiliation Will Last for a While
France’s Emmanuel Macron says the continent is seen as a geopolitical pushover. There’s no easy fix.
www.bloomberg.com
August 1, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Thought-provoking piece by Bloomberg. With some points from my work.
The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought.
1/
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought.
1/
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵
July 27, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei.
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
July 17, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei.
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
Last I checked, the EU was highly regulated a decade ago too, when German automakers were dominant.
Last I checked, Chinas car sector gained global prominence thanks to a web of tariffs, subsidies, forced tech transfer and gov innovation support.
How’s EU regulation to blame?
Last I checked, Chinas car sector gained global prominence thanks to a web of tariffs, subsidies, forced tech transfer and gov innovation support.
How’s EU regulation to blame?
As a car enthusiast I can say that for each "year" that the EU is buying to catch up with China, China will move ahead 2 years. It's not a game that the highly regulated EU can win, period.
The EU’s EV tariffs on China are buying time and offering some reprieve to European automakers, even as a flood of Chinese goods enters European markets, driven by a weak yuan, trade diversion from US tariffs and Chinas generally exploding exports.
July 17, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Last I checked, the EU was highly regulated a decade ago too, when German automakers were dominant.
Last I checked, Chinas car sector gained global prominence thanks to a web of tariffs, subsidies, forced tech transfer and gov innovation support.
How’s EU regulation to blame?
Last I checked, Chinas car sector gained global prominence thanks to a web of tariffs, subsidies, forced tech transfer and gov innovation support.
How’s EU regulation to blame?
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far.
Here is why:
Here is why:
July 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM
It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far.
Here is why:
Here is why:
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive.
Thread:
Thread:
Socialists to support von der Leyen in no-confidence vote after she backs down on EU budget
European Commission president expected to easily survive ― but she has made two major concessions.
www.politico.eu
July 10, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive.
Thread:
Thread:
1/ The leak for the European Competitiveness Fund has just been made public. Here's a breakdown of the main elements of the proposal. As expected, the COM proposes consolidating several of its directly managed programmes. The draft points to 12/14 programmes merged under a single legal framework
July 9, 2025 at 10:13 AM
1/ The leak for the European Competitiveness Fund has just been made public. Here's a breakdown of the main elements of the proposal. As expected, the COM proposes consolidating several of its directly managed programmes. The draft points to 12/14 programmes merged under a single legal framework
Wer Lust hat, in einem tollen Team an EU-Finanzpolitik zu arbeiten! Wir suchen einen Project Manager für das Europa-Team der Bertelsmann Stiftung.
jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com/BertelsmannS...
jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com/BertelsmannS...
Project Manager im Projekt Europas Wirtschaft zukunftsfähig machen (m/w/d)
Project Manager im Projekt Europas Wirtschaft zukunftsfähig machen (m/w/d)
jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com
July 4, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Wer Lust hat, in einem tollen Team an EU-Finanzpolitik zu arbeiten! Wir suchen einen Project Manager für das Europa-Team der Bertelsmann Stiftung.
jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com/BertelsmannS...
jobsearch.createyourowncareer.com/BertelsmannS...
👀
Not every day that you get the President of the ECB citing your work, @sandertordoir.bsky.social @lucas-res-car.bsky.social
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...
June 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
👀
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
10% across the board seems to be EU‘s best case scenario now - wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with something considerably worse, especially if there is no credible signal on retaliation if this doesn’t hold. UK has been there and done that with steel and alu.
Brussels negotiators hope that offering to accept U.S. tariffs of 10% across all of the European Union's exports into the United States will avert any higher duties on cars, drugs and electronics, newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Monday.
www.reuters.com/business/eu-...
www.reuters.com/business/eu-...
EU prepared to accept flat 10% US tariff with conditions, Handelsblatt reports
Brussels negotiators hope that offering to accept U.S. tariffs of 10% across all of the European Union's exports into the United States will avert any higher duties on cars, drugs and electronics, newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Monday.
www.reuters.com
June 16, 2025 at 2:20 PM
10% across the board seems to be EU‘s best case scenario now - wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with something considerably worse, especially if there is no credible signal on retaliation if this doesn’t hold. UK has been there and done that with steel and alu.
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
The pretty concise position paper of the new German government on the next long term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. It lends clear support to the Commission's bold reform ideas on the MFF architecture while unsurprisingly also remaining German in a few crucial areas.
Here are the main elements:
Here are the main elements:
June 13, 2025 at 10:52 AM
The pretty concise position paper of the new German government on the next long term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. It lends clear support to the Commission's bold reform ideas on the MFF architecture while unsurprisingly also remaining German in a few crucial areas.
Here are the main elements:
Here are the main elements:
Reposted by Lucas Resende Carvalho
New Policy Brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social with recommendations for a smart European Competitiveness Fund: Clear scope, full toolbox, agile governance—read more here: bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
From Fragmentation to Strategy: Building a Smart European Competitiveness Fund
The European Commission aims to streamline and simplify its innovation funding by consolidating most of it into a single instrument: the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF). The rationale is clear. Th...
bst-europe.eu
May 28, 2025 at 7:07 AM
New Policy Brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social with recommendations for a smart European Competitiveness Fund: Clear scope, full toolbox, agile governance—read more here: bst-europe.eu/competitiven...
1/ The EU wants to bundle R&I funding into a new Competitiveness Fund (ECF). The idea: less fragmentation, more strategic focus. The ambition is right. But whether the ECF delivers will depend entirely on how it's designed. Here are four principles that should guide it.
bst-europe.eu?p=38401&prev...
bst-europe.eu?p=38401&prev...
From Fragmentation to Strategy: Building a Smart European Competitiveness Fund
The European Commission aims to streamline and simplify its innovation funding by consolidating most of it into a single instrument: the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF). The rationale is clear. Th...
bst-europe.eu
May 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM
1/ The EU wants to bundle R&I funding into a new Competitiveness Fund (ECF). The idea: less fragmentation, more strategic focus. The ambition is right. But whether the ECF delivers will depend entirely on how it's designed. Here are four principles that should guide it.
bst-europe.eu?p=38401&prev...
bst-europe.eu?p=38401&prev...