Mark Hibbs
@mark88.bsky.social
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are in Washington, D.C. I'm in Berlin.
Perhaps this incident will prompt Sánchez and his Socialist Party base to take seriously from now on what NATO is facing on its eastern border.
⚡️ Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
kyivindependent.com
September 24, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Perhaps this incident will prompt Sánchez and his Socialist Party base to take seriously from now on what NATO is facing on its eastern border.
@chriswinedoctor.bsky.social U were generous in rating Ch. Plaisance Grand Lopin '21 at 87/100 but yr points still held in '25: Little sweetness, dense but opaque profile en bouche, thin, flat palette, sour finish. Nose improved since yr '22 tasting Their whites are better than this on average.
September 13, 2025 at 10:40 PM
@chriswinedoctor.bsky.social U were generous in rating Ch. Plaisance Grand Lopin '21 at 87/100 but yr points still held in '25: Little sweetness, dense but opaque profile en bouche, thin, flat palette, sour finish. Nose improved since yr '22 tasting Their whites are better than this on average.
The IAEA contributed to what little is known about the impact of the June attacks on Iran's nuclear installations. But the challenges to the IAEA going forward in and with Iran will be mammoth. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-iran-nucl...
Iran’s Nuclear Program Took a Real Hit. So Did IAEA Oversight of It
The U.S. attack on Fordow did real damage to the site. But it also set back the IAEA’s oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
July 17, 2025 at 3:00 PM
The IAEA contributed to what little is known about the impact of the June attacks on Iran's nuclear installations. But the challenges to the IAEA going forward in and with Iran will be mammoth. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-iran-nucl...
Here in Germany if extreme polarization prompted justices of the Constitutional Court to make such accusations, the country's leadership & everyone else would engage on how to avoid/prepare for a national state of emergency (Innerer Notstand/Notstandsgesetze)
In solo dissents this term, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson accused the conservative majority of the Supreme Court of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Makes Herself Heard, Prompting a Rebuke
In solo dissents this term, the justice accused the conservative majority of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
trib.al
July 5, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Here in Germany if extreme polarization prompted justices of the Constitutional Court to make such accusations, the country's leadership & everyone else would engage on how to avoid/prepare for a national state of emergency (Innerer Notstand/Notstandsgesetze)
Louis-Ferdinand Céline à Eugène Dabit, 1933: "La vie ne passe plus par la littérature. C'est une ville ancienne capitale comme Dijon abandonnée aux chats amputés...''
July 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Louis-Ferdinand Céline à Eugène Dabit, 1933: "La vie ne passe plus par la littérature. C'est une ville ancienne capitale comme Dijon abandonnée aux chats amputés...''
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...
For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
Nuclear Inspectors Leave Iran After Cooperation Halted With U.N. Watchdog
www.nytimes.com
July 5, 2025 at 11:58 AM
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...
For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
Read Nicole's thread on Iran timelines. What she was maybe too polite or politic to say is that many op-ed estimates are ultimately less driven by analytical assumptions and more by DC-routine binary myopia: Trump loyalists claim all was destroyed. Trump's foes say Iran can get the bomb in months.
That's the thing about truth-seeking and evidence-based policy.
As a policy matter, I think Trump officials are smart to lie about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program to avoid being drawn further into this shit show. As a professional with a reputation to uphold, I have to point out that these statements are untrue. It's a weird time.
June 29, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Read Nicole's thread on Iran timelines. What she was maybe too polite or politic to say is that many op-ed estimates are ultimately less driven by analytical assumptions and more by DC-routine binary myopia: Trump loyalists claim all was destroyed. Trump's foes say Iran can get the bomb in months.
Grossi isn't guessing. The IAEA in fact has some quantitative evidence permitting the conclusion that the centrifuges at Fordo are broken.
Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are "no longer operational" after the U.S. attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio Thursday.
Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says
Rafael Grossi told French radio that there was “no escaping significant physical damage” after the U.S. dropped bunker-buster bombs on the Iranian facility.
trib.al
June 26, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Grossi isn't guessing. The IAEA in fact has some quantitative evidence permitting the conclusion that the centrifuges at Fordo are broken.
"Expert X says Iran could have nuclear weapons in a year." "Expert Y says Iran's nuclear weapons quest was set back between 2 and 5 years." "Expert Z says Iran's nuclear weapons program was virtually destroyed."
June 24, 2025 at 4:08 PM
"Expert X says Iran could have nuclear weapons in a year." "Expert Y says Iran's nuclear weapons quest was set back between 2 and 5 years." "Expert Z says Iran's nuclear weapons program was virtually destroyed."
IAEA board on Monday could request Secretariat & Iran to re-verify, report on safeguards status of Iran's HEU inventory: All material accounted for? Safeguards continuity? Prerequisites: Iran's cooperation, halt to Israeli warfare in Iran.
June 22, 2025 at 11:15 PM
IAEA board on Monday could request Secretariat & Iran to re-verify, report on safeguards status of Iran's HEU inventory: All material accounted for? Safeguards continuity? Prerequisites: Iran's cooperation, halt to Israeli warfare in Iran.
Israël se prépare-t-il à mettre un terme aux bombardements?
«Le fait que nous ayons éliminé ces personnes hauts gradés et scientifiques est extrêmement important.» →https://l.lefigaro.fr/qL7
June 21, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Israël se prépare-t-il à mettre un terme aux bombardements?
Das israelische Militär hat die Möglichkeit für den Iran, „eine Atombombe zu erlangen, bereits um mindestens 2 oder 3 Jahre verzögert“.
www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/israel-...
www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/israel-...
Israel-Iran-Konflikt aktuell: Was in der Nacht geschah
Dem israelischen Außenminister zufolge ist es der Armee gelungen, die Atombomben-Pläne des Irans um Jahre zurückzuwerfen. Israel und der Iran berichten derweil von neuen Angriffen.
www.berliner-zeitung.de
June 21, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Das israelische Militär hat die Möglichkeit für den Iran, „eine Atombombe zu erlangen, bereits um mindestens 2 oder 3 Jahre verzögert“.
www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/israel-...
www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/israel-...
But a week of Israeli attacks which have disabled virtually all of Iran's above-ground strategic nuclear infrastructure won't incentivize Iran to have nuclear weapons?
American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
www.nytimes.com
June 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
But a week of Israeli attacks which have disabled virtually all of Iran's above-ground strategic nuclear infrastructure won't incentivize Iran to have nuclear weapons?
Reposted by Mark Hibbs
L’islamologue analyse les ressorts et les conséquences de la guerre qui oppose Israël et l’Iran. La chute du régime des mollahs représenterait, selon lui, un tournant historique aussi important que celui de la chute du mur de Berlin. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/S18
June 19, 2025 at 2:30 PM
L’islamologue analyse les ressorts et les conséquences de la guerre qui oppose Israël et l’Iran. La chute du régime des mollahs représenterait, selon lui, un tournant historique aussi important que celui de la chute du mur de Berlin. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/S18
Will the next US step be to provide bunker-busting bombs to attack underground nuclear sites in Iran, led off by Fordo? Are US Republicans on board with this US escalation? As long as Israel has command of Iranian air space, probably yes.
The U.S. military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, tilting Washington toward more direct involvement in the widening conflict.
After Sitting Out the Iran Attack, U.S. Steps In to Help Israel Intercept Missiles
The U.S. military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel.
on.wsj.com
June 15, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Will the next US step be to provide bunker-busting bombs to attack underground nuclear sites in Iran, led off by Fordo? Are US Republicans on board with this US escalation? As long as Israel has command of Iranian air space, probably yes.
Reposted by Mark Hibbs
This reads a lot like a threat to Khamenei. Kill Americans and we’ll take you out. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
June 15, 2025 at 5:10 PM
This reads a lot like a threat to Khamenei. Kill Americans and we’ll take you out. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by still other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.
Israel claims it damaged Iran's Natanz nuclear facility "significantly." But questions remain.
Read more on this developing story from @francoisdm.bsky.social.
Read more on this developing story from @francoisdm.bsky.social.
Israel claims it damaged Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility “significantly.” But questions remain
Early Friday, Israel conducted air strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s main enrichment site. The strikes were part of a larger operation by the Israeli military that targeted nuclear sites, long-range missile facilities, military leaders, and nuclear scientists across Iran.
thebulletin.org
June 14, 2025 at 8:37 AM
What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by still other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.
What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.
In fine, Donald Trump pourrait faire payer à Benyamin Netanyahou une escalade qu’il voulait justement éviter. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/0vC
June 14, 2025 at 8:15 AM
What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.
Reported absence of detected radiation emissions is not an indicator for a military attack on a centrifuge enrichment plant.
June 13, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Reported absence of detected radiation emissions is not an indicator for a military attack on a centrifuge enrichment plant.
On the same day the German SPD left wing stumps for cooperation & peace w/Putin, Merz protests that Putin has arrested another Russian national politician for the crime of advocating a ceasefire. See this clip beginning at 8:50
www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...
www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...
ARTE Journal - 11/06/2025 - Tusk übersteht Vertrauensfrage in Polen und muss Netanjahu zittern? - Komplette Sendung | ARTE
In Polen übersteht der pro-europäische Ministerpräsident Donald Tusk eine Vertrauensabstimmung. Bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen hatte seine Regierung einen Rückschlag erlitten / In Israel stellt die Op...
www.arte.tv
June 11, 2025 at 7:34 PM
On the same day the German SPD left wing stumps for cooperation & peace w/Putin, Merz protests that Putin has arrested another Russian national politician for the crime of advocating a ceasefire. See this clip beginning at 8:50
www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...
www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...
@ericasimov.bsky.social Excerpting a late comment I posted to your 4/21/22 piece: We were shocked by an expensive 2019 Viré-Cruzille from Julien Guillot. Sulfur nose, after 2 decantings still tasted like iron. Some Ziereisen whites also like this. What's behind this? Fundamentalist bio-winemaking?
June 4, 2025 at 7:03 PM
@ericasimov.bsky.social Excerpting a late comment I posted to your 4/21/22 piece: We were shocked by an expensive 2019 Viré-Cruzille from Julien Guillot. Sulfur nose, after 2 decantings still tasted like iron. Some Ziereisen whites also like this. What's behind this? Fundamentalist bio-winemaking?
Tracking with the trend that a disproportionate share of Germany's irregular migrants/political asylum seekers are males between the age of 15 and 25...
Europol has launched a new task force to combat the recruitment of minors for terrorism and organized crime.
ICYMI, here's my story from last month about the growing threat to Europe from teenage terrorists, Islamists and well as right-wingers
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
ICYMI, here's my story from last month about the growing threat to Europe from teenage terrorists, Islamists and well as right-wingers
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Teenage Terrorists Are a Growing Threat to Europe’s Security
Dozens of adolescents have been arrested in recent months for allegedly plotting attacks. Law enforcers are overwhelmed by a new generation of extremists being radicalized online.
www.wsj.com
June 3, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Tracking with the trend that a disproportionate share of Germany's irregular migrants/political asylum seekers are males between the age of 15 and 25...
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
"This newly available historical evidence shows that the U.S. was deeply involved...From the very beginning, government secrecy, obfuscation, lies, and the incomplete and contradictory statements of key American participants confused the record."
"This newly available historical evidence shows that the U.S. was deeply involved...From the very beginning, government secrecy, obfuscation, lies, and the incomplete and contradictory statements of key American participants confused the record."
A House Divided: Washington, Langley, Saigon, and the Plot Against Diem
Washington, D.C., May 22, 2025 - Early in the morning of October 7, 1963, the top leadership of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) gathered in the office of the Director of Central Intelligence (DC...
nsarchive.gwu.edu
May 23, 2025 at 11:06 PM
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
"This newly available historical evidence shows that the U.S. was deeply involved...From the very beginning, government secrecy, obfuscation, lies, and the incomplete and contradictory statements of key American participants confused the record."
"This newly available historical evidence shows that the U.S. was deeply involved...From the very beginning, government secrecy, obfuscation, lies, and the incomplete and contradictory statements of key American participants confused the record."
Whatever the reason, there were more than 150 million eligible voters who in 2024 did not vote for the Democrats. It may be inevitable that so long as the Ds don't close on why they failed, there will be a lot of speculation to explain their loss.
This is such bullshit. There wasn't a single Dem who made bathrooms and sports significant parts of their campaigns. I'm really getting sick of guys like Cuomo and Rahm Emanuel retconning the 2024 election.
Haven’t seen this reported yet: in a speech to supporters posted to TikTok last week, NYC mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo said he believes that Democrats lost in 2024 because “we’re talking about bathrooms and who’s gonna play in what [sports] team”
May 16, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Whatever the reason, there were more than 150 million eligible voters who in 2024 did not vote for the Democrats. It may be inevitable that so long as the Ds don't close on why they failed, there will be a lot of speculation to explain their loss.
"Sweetness does not enter the Pythagorean universe." --Arthur Koestler, p. 13.
May 12, 2025 at 9:55 AM
"Sweetness does not enter the Pythagorean universe." --Arthur Koestler, p. 13.