Mark Hibbs
Mark Hibbs
@mark88.bsky.social

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are in Washington, D.C. I'm in Berlin.

Political science 43%
Engineering 18%

Appreciate your data on Pinon's Vouvrays. We popped open a '22 Les Déronnières, you called it right. That said, our bottle was 13.5% alc. The one you tasted was a whole percent less. What gives? Is the output a standard deviation where buyers must be careful e. g. to avoid hot wines--caveat emptor?

@ 17:25: L'objectif d'Ernest Chausson était-il de se "de-wagneriser" la musique du 19e siècle?

re Chinon: Read yr take on Couly-Duteil, also for me in 90s intro to appellation. C-D also had a grand tasting room near Gare du Nord. No more. C-D cld be exhibit A on wine-biz evolution--product differentiation aside, maybe today too many single cuvées, some as you identify having less quality.

Perhaps this incident will prompt Sánchez and his Socialist Party base to take seriously from now on what NATO is facing on its eastern border.
⚡️ Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.

The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
kyivindependent.com

Reposted by Mark Hibbs

⚡️ Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.

The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave
The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.
kyivindependent.com

Maybe decant this and re-taste: by dinnertime 24 hrs later, recorked half approached softer trad Anjou reds, w/o losing contour, so it improved. 600 km from Haute-Loire to Fiefs Vendéen, w/every bottle you learn more & more; your notes are helpful, also in this case.

@chriswinedoctor.bsky.social U were generous in rating Ch. Plaisance Grand Lopin '21 at 87/100 but yr points still held in '25: Little sweetness, dense but opaque profile en bouche, thin, flat palette, sour finish. Nose improved since yr '22 tasting Their whites are better than this on average.

Reposted by Mark Hibbs

I’m glad TikTok is coming back online. We need to keep it that way. The platform is too important to the lives of 170 million creators.

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If ARD's projection holds with the Liberals & BSW falling below 5% it is possible to have a CDU+SPD groko tho just barely. If ZDF's projection holds it would have to be CDU+SPD+FDP assuming Merz won't do coalitions with the Greens.
German election 2025 live blog: Christian Democrats largest party, far-right AfD second in exit polls - Euractiv
Euractiv is reporting live from Germany. Get real-time updates from Berlin and follow the results as soon as polling stations close
www.euractiv.com

Reposted by Mark Hibbs

Wahlergebnisse für Berlin:

19,9% der Berlinerinnen und Berliner haben die Linke gewählt, 18,3% die CDU, die Grünen 16,8%.

Aber auf lokaler Ebene sehen die Ergebnisse ganz anders aus. How könnt ihr nachsehen, wie euer Kiez gewählt hat:

interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/bundesta...
Bundestagswahl 2025: Alle Wahlergebnisse in Berlin auf einer Karte
Interaktive Karte zeigt die Wahlergebnisse aller Berliner Kieze bei den Bundestagswahlen 2025. Finden Sie heraus, wie sich die Ergebnisse in Ihrer Nachbarschaft verändert haben!
interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de

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Not so fast. Merz also qualified on the same TV show this evening here that "I don't believe" that the transatlantic defense relationship is finished, and said that he would work on shoring up that relationship, adding that the US would likely remain critical for Europe's defense.
Blimey. Asked about Trump, Merz says he’s in close contact with European leaders about becoming “independent” from US (and confesses “I never thought I’d say that on TV show”). Casts doubt on value of NATO summit in June.

This from a die-hard Atlanticist. Things are moving fast.

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When MAGA folks say “no scalps” and pledge to stand by Hegseth no matter what, they are telling us something very important.

More mistakes will be made. Signalgate can happen again. They are fine w that.

People are going to get hurt.
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is facing scrutiny over his handling of details of a military strike, brought his wife, a former Fox News producer, to two meetings with foreign military counterparts where sensitive information was discussed”
Exclusive | Hegseth Brought His Wife to Sensitive Meetings With Foreign Military Officials
The defense secretary’s handling of sensitive information is under criticism after he shared details about a strike on Houthi militants in a group chat on a widely used app.
www.wsj.com

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Where I am today

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Very cool. Official paperwork has been filed to build four CANDU Monarks in Peace River, Northern Alberta. Each nuclear reactor would produce 1000 MWe. #Nukesky

iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/document...
iaac-aeic.gc.ca

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This is such bullshit. There wasn't a single Dem who made bathrooms and sports significant parts of their campaigns. I'm really getting sick of guys like Cuomo and Rahm Emanuel retconning the 2024 election.
Haven’t seen this reported yet: in a speech to supporters posted to TikTok last week, NYC mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo said he believes that Democrats lost in 2024 because “we’re talking about bathrooms and who’s gonna play in what [sports] team”

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Europol has launched a new task force to combat the recruitment of minors for terrorism and organized crime.

ICYMI, here's my story from last month about the growing threat to Europe from teenage terrorists, Islamists and well as right-wingers

www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Teenage Terrorists Are a Growing Threat to Europe’s Security
Dozens of adolescents have been arrested in recent months for allegedly plotting attacks. Law enforcers are overwhelmed by a new generation of extremists being radicalized online.
www.wsj.com

Reposted by Mark Hibbs

Israel claims it damaged Iran's Natanz nuclear facility "significantly." But questions remain.

Read more on this developing story from @francoisdm.bsky.social‬.
Israel claims it damaged Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility “significantly.” But questions remain
Early Friday, Israel conducted air strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s main enrichment site. The strikes were part of a larger operation by the Israeli military that targeted nuclear sites, long-range missile facilities, military leaders, and nuclear scientists across Iran.
thebulletin.org

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American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
www.nytimes.com

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«Le fait que nous ayons éliminé ces personnes hauts gradés et scientifiques est extrêmement important.» →https://l.lefigaro.fr/qL7

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Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are "no longer operational" after the U.S. attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio Thursday.
Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says
Rafael Grossi told French radio that there was “no escaping significant physical damage” after the U.S. dropped bunker-buster bombs on the Iranian facility.
trib.al

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That's the thing about truth-seeking and evidence-based policy.
As a policy matter, I think Trump officials are smart to lie about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program to avoid being drawn further into this shit show. As a professional with a reputation to uphold, I have to point out that these statements are untrue. It's a weird time.

Reposted by Mark Hibbs

In solo dissents this term, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson accused the conservative majority of the Supreme Court of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Makes Herself Heard, Prompting a Rebuke
In solo dissents this term, the justice accused the conservative majority of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
trib.al

The IAEA contributed to what little is known about the impact of the June attacks on Iran's nuclear installations. But the challenges to the IAEA going forward in and with Iran will be mammoth. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-iran-nucl...
Iran’s Nuclear Program Took a Real Hit. So Did IAEA Oversight of It
The U.S. attack on Fordow did real damage to the site. But it also set back the IAEA’s oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Here in Germany if extreme polarization prompted justices of the Constitutional Court to make such accusations, the country's leadership & everyone else would engage on how to avoid/prepare for a national state of emergency (Innerer Notstand/Notstandsgesetze)
In solo dissents this term, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson accused the conservative majority of the Supreme Court of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Makes Herself Heard, Prompting a Rebuke
In solo dissents this term, the justice accused the conservative majority of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.
trib.al

Louis-Ferdinand Céline à Eugène Dabit, 1933: "La vie ne passe plus par la littérature. C'est une ville ancienne capitale comme Dijon abandonnée aux chats amputés...''

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...
For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
Nuclear Inspectors Leave Iran After Cooperation Halted With U.N. Watchdog
www.nytimes.com

As Nicole's good thread I believe implied, there is a reasonable probability that Iran's post-12-day-war timeline is neither 'never' nor is it 'months'

Read Nicole's thread on Iran timelines. What she was maybe too polite or politic to say is that many op-ed estimates are ultimately less driven by analytical assumptions and more by DC-routine binary myopia: Trump loyalists claim all was destroyed. Trump's foes say Iran can get the bomb in months.
That's the thing about truth-seeking and evidence-based policy.
As a policy matter, I think Trump officials are smart to lie about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program to avoid being drawn further into this shit show. As a professional with a reputation to uphold, I have to point out that these statements are untrue. It's a weird time.