Ross O'Connor
@oconnor.bsky.social
Foreign and national security Advisor to 22nd Prime Minister of Canada. Director of Policy for two Foreign Ministers. NatSecurity, nuclear, energy, and climate.
Can we please stop overreacting? Canada's tariff reduction deal with China is being is being framed as a geopolitical earthquake where Trump's madness is causing Canada to switch sides in the alliance game. Come on people, It's a tariff deal for cars and canola so let's get a grip please.
Canadian PM in China forging relationship for “a new world order” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Canada PM hails strategic partnership with China to adapt to ‘new global realities’
Mark Carney holds talks with Xi Jinping on rare Beijing trip as Canada seeks to diversify trade links away from US
www.theguardian.com
January 17, 2026 at 1:18 PM
Can we please stop overreacting? Canada's tariff reduction deal with China is being is being framed as a geopolitical earthquake where Trump's madness is causing Canada to switch sides in the alliance game. Come on people, It's a tariff deal for cars and canola so let's get a grip please.
The "world order" is and will always has been determined by power alone. The only new development is that wishful thinkers who mistakenly believed that rules and “international law" would bend the arc of history towards justice are getting a strong reality check.
My phrase of the day is Mark Carney saying New. World. Order.
So powerful.
So powerful.
January 17, 2026 at 6:02 AM
The "world order" is and will always has been determined by power alone. The only new development is that wishful thinkers who mistakenly believed that rules and “international law" would bend the arc of history towards justice are getting a strong reality check.
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
Here is my new article for @nsarchive.bsky.social It is based on documents I found at the George H. W. Bush Library that deal with the lead up to the "snatch" operation against Panama's Noriega in 1989 and how that op served as the key precedent for the Maduro op
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
Imperial Prerogative: How the Panama Invasion and the “Barr Doctrine” Set the Stage for the Maduro “Snatch” Operation
Washington, D.C., January 16, 2026 - The Justice Department official who wrote the legal opinion determining that President Donald Trump had the constitutional authority to “unilaterally order” the “e...
nsarchive.gwu.edu
January 16, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Here is my new article for @nsarchive.bsky.social It is based on documents I found at the George H. W. Bush Library that deal with the lead up to the "snatch" operation against Panama's Noriega in 1989 and how that op served as the key precedent for the Maduro op
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...
To hedge against a chaotic US by getting closer to China, a country that demands submission as a condition of partnership, is a perilous game. Carney's line "they want to break us so that they can own us" applies to China as much as it applies to Trump.
We came to Beijing for Canada to forge a new strategic partnership with China — we’ll be returning with a new trade agreement and billions of dollars in export markets unlocked for Canadian workers.
January 16, 2026 at 5:14 PM
To hedge against a chaotic US by getting closer to China, a country that demands submission as a condition of partnership, is a perilous game. Carney's line "they want to break us so that they can own us" applies to China as much as it applies to Trump.
The leader of Ontario is less enthusiastic about the trade deal his Prime Minister just negotiated with China.
January 16, 2026 at 2:32 PM
The leader of Ontario is less enthusiastic about the trade deal his Prime Minister just negotiated with China.
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
Two immediate thoughts
1. We have conceded a lot for promises of relief - not actual relief. Thanks, I hate it.
2. This is a clear sign Carney is expecting very little to come of US trade talks this year.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
1. We have conceded a lot for promises of relief - not actual relief. Thanks, I hate it.
2. This is a clear sign Carney is expecting very little to come of US trade talks this year.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
Canada reaches tariff deal with China on electric vehicles, canola
In a break with the U.S., Ottawa will roll back tariffs on thousands of Chinese-made vehicles in exchange for major cuts to Beijing’s levies on canola and seafood
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 16, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Two immediate thoughts
1. We have conceded a lot for promises of relief - not actual relief. Thanks, I hate it.
2. This is a clear sign Carney is expecting very little to come of US trade talks this year.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
1. We have conceded a lot for promises of relief - not actual relief. Thanks, I hate it.
2. This is a clear sign Carney is expecting very little to come of US trade talks this year.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
China'a worldview is that it calls the shots and smaller states submit. It’s trying to establish a new geopolitical and economic hierarchy and to constrain Canada within that hierarchy. China"s Economic policies are instruments of power. Trade is war by other means.
thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade...
thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade...
China’s Trade Ultimatum to Canada: Comply or Suffer | The Walrus
Former diplomat Michael Kovrig explains the deeper logic behind Beijing’s economic coercion
thewalrus.ca
January 15, 2026 at 1:23 PM
China'a worldview is that it calls the shots and smaller states submit. It’s trying to establish a new geopolitical and economic hierarchy and to constrain Canada within that hierarchy. China"s Economic policies are instruments of power. Trade is war by other means.
thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade...
thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade...
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
First sales of Venezuelan fuel by US (no info on buyer).
One of the US offshore accounts for Venezuela is in Qatar, a dolalr pegged jurisdiction.
interesting for many reasons including history of Iranian assets which US blocked transfers post Oct 7
www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
One of the US offshore accounts for Venezuela is in Qatar, a dolalr pegged jurisdiction.
interesting for many reasons including history of Iranian assets which US blocked transfers post Oct 7
www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
Exclusive: US gets first $500 million Venezuelan oil deal, holding some proceeds in Qatar
The details shared with Semafor mark an initial milestone in the administration’s plan following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro.
www.semafor.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:42 AM
First sales of Venezuelan fuel by US (no info on buyer).
One of the US offshore accounts for Venezuela is in Qatar, a dolalr pegged jurisdiction.
interesting for many reasons including history of Iranian assets which US blocked transfers post Oct 7
www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
One of the US offshore accounts for Venezuela is in Qatar, a dolalr pegged jurisdiction.
interesting for many reasons including history of Iranian assets which US blocked transfers post Oct 7
www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson:
Some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today. They are part of a group from several allied countries.
Some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today. They are part of a group from several allied countries.
January 14, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson:
Some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today. They are part of a group from several allied countries.
Some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today. They are part of a group from several allied countries.
This will be a big test for PM Carney. For it to be a success, he needs to make the visit appear transactional rather than a warming of relations. Carney's line "Break us so that they can own us" applies to China as much as it applies to Trump.
A trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney — the first by a Canadian leader since 2017 — could reset ties between China and Canada.
Carney’s visit to Beijing could reset Canada-China ties
The Canadian prime minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely try to dial down trade tensions between their two countries, which are heavily targeted by U.S. tariffs.
ebx.sh
January 13, 2026 at 6:01 PM
This will be a big test for PM Carney. For it to be a success, he needs to make the visit appear transactional rather than a warming of relations. Carney's line "Break us so that they can own us" applies to China as much as it applies to Trump.
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
No information here on who supplied the turbine generator equipment for A-2. France shipped it to Rosatom in a deal with Erdogan and Trump to brush off U.S. trade sanctions imposed after Putin's invasion of Ukraine?
world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...
world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...
Akkuyu 2's turbine generator stator installed
The 437-tonne turbine generator stator was moved on a special track before being lifted into place in the turbine hall of unit 2 at Turkey's Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.
;
world-nuclear-news.org
January 13, 2026 at 12:07 PM
No information here on who supplied the turbine generator equipment for A-2. France shipped it to Rosatom in a deal with Erdogan and Trump to brush off U.S. trade sanctions imposed after Putin's invasion of Ukraine?
world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...
world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...
All reports out of Iran must be treated with skepticism which makes the ability to emit sound assessments damn near impossible.
IRGC burning shops that joined nationwide strikes. This scorched-earth tactic from these thickheaded idiots only destroys the economy further, but it won't break the people's resolve. The end of tyranny is near! 👊🦁🇮🇷
#IranProtests #Rasht #21Dey #IranRevolution #FreeIran #StopTheViolence #Iran
#IranProtests #Rasht #21Dey #IranRevolution #FreeIran #StopTheViolence #Iran
January 11, 2026 at 11:06 PM
All reports out of Iran must be treated with skepticism which makes the ability to emit sound assessments damn near impossible.
It's a coin toss whether NATO survives a US takeover of Greenland but anyone stating that it would finish NATO vastly underestimates how much allies need the US in NATO. I can easily imagine a scenario where allies show great disapproval but continue "under protest".
www.ft.com/content/d297...
www.ft.com/content/d297...
Nato silence on Donald Trump’s Greenland threats rattles European allies
Military alliance yet to issue public statement asserting territorial integrity of Arctic island and kingdom of Denmark
www.ft.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:46 PM
It's a coin toss whether NATO survives a US takeover of Greenland but anyone stating that it would finish NATO vastly underestimates how much allies need the US in NATO. I can easily imagine a scenario where allies show great disapproval but continue "under protest".
www.ft.com/content/d297...
www.ft.com/content/d297...
...And please take a few barrels of oil if you can.
January 11, 2026 at 2:26 AM
...And please take a few barrels of oil if you can.
Trump seems to be far more interested in a legacy defining land acquisition rather than pragmatically getting what he wants through negotiation. Thus endeth the transactional President.
Trump: "If we don't take Greenland, you're gonna have Russia or China as your next door neighbor. That's not going to happen."
January 10, 2026 at 9:56 PM
Trump seems to be far more interested in a legacy defining land acquisition rather than pragmatically getting what he wants through negotiation. Thus endeth the transactional President.
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
January 8, 2026 at 3:25 PM
AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
more details on US as marketer of Ven oil and sanctions relief.
- Us only legal seller
-funds go into US controlled accounts
- diluent from US
- sanctions relief related to energy sales
-export controls eased on equipment
-no discussion on debt
www.energy.gov/articles/fac...
- Us only legal seller
-funds go into US controlled accounts
- diluent from US
- sanctions relief related to energy sales
-export controls eased on equipment
-no discussion on debt
www.energy.gov/articles/fac...
FACT SHEET: President Trump is Restoring Prosperity, Safety and Security for the United States and Venezuela
Thanks to President Trump, the United States is restoring prosperity, safety, and security to the United States and Venezuela.
www.energy.gov
January 7, 2026 at 6:00 PM
more details on US as marketer of Ven oil and sanctions relief.
- Us only legal seller
-funds go into US controlled accounts
- diluent from US
- sanctions relief related to energy sales
-export controls eased on equipment
-no discussion on debt
www.energy.gov/articles/fac...
- Us only legal seller
-funds go into US controlled accounts
- diluent from US
- sanctions relief related to energy sales
-export controls eased on equipment
-no discussion on debt
www.energy.gov/articles/fac...
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
"Aldrich Ames, the most murderous turncoat in the history of the Central Intelligence Agency, whose betrayal in working for the Soviet Union went undetected for almost a decade, died on Monday."
1. Tim Weiner proving the pen = mightier than the sword and not holding anything back.
1. Tim Weiner proving the pen = mightier than the sword and not holding anything back.
My NYT obit on Aldrich Ames, CIA turncoat for the Russians. I interviewed him in the county lockup after his arrest in 1994, then by telephone for eight hours. Deluded, deeply alcoholic, he thought he could lift up the hood of history and tinker with the engine.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/o...
Aldrich Ames, C.I.A. Turncoat Who Helped the Soviets, Dies at 84
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:56 AM
"Aldrich Ames, the most murderous turncoat in the history of the Central Intelligence Agency, whose betrayal in working for the Soviet Union went undetected for almost a decade, died on Monday."
1. Tim Weiner proving the pen = mightier than the sword and not holding anything back.
1. Tim Weiner proving the pen = mightier than the sword and not holding anything back.
"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" is accurate but what is also true is that Hubris, over reach and overstretch driven by overconfidence will always drive empires to their grave.
some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.
January 6, 2026 at 6:31 PM
"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" is accurate but what is also true is that Hubris, over reach and overstretch driven by overconfidence will always drive empires to their grave.
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
Best podcast I've ever done. But that's because I interviewed @wellerstein.bsky.social!
January 6, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Best podcast I've ever done. But that's because I interviewed @wellerstein.bsky.social!
Reposted by Ross O'Connor
The thing with the liberal international order is that it was largely created as a tool of hegemonic statecraft; but too many people have memed themselves thinking it exists for the benefit of the Third World and not of the First World.
January 6, 2026 at 4:44 PM
The thing with the liberal international order is that it was largely created as a tool of hegemonic statecraft; but too many people have memed themselves thinking it exists for the benefit of the Third World and not of the First World.
