Matej Rafael Risko
@matejrisko.bsky.social
Researcher, focus on Nukes | Missiles | Deterrence | Strategy & Planning | War & International Security | Air Power | Wargames | Strictly personal views, Usual Cavetas
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Pinned
Animated Flight Sequence of a Minuteman III ICBM - Produced by Northrop Grumman (2007)
YouTube video by Association of Air Force Missileers (AAFM)
youtu.be
World-wide delivery in 30 minutes or less or your next one is free.
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
An educational wargame focused on the decision-making process for students of one course at Anton Neuwirth College. I let the Baltonia get smashed by the Northern Federation. Was fun but gotta say it's also a bit challenging to work with untrained people -they’ve unrealistic expectations.
December 4, 2025 at 8:22 PM
An educational wargame focused on the decision-making process for students of one course at Anton Neuwirth College. I let the Baltonia get smashed by the Northern Federation. Was fun but gotta say it's also a bit challenging to work with untrained people -they’ve unrealistic expectations.
It turns out that the missile was launched from an SS-18 silo that was reconstructed for Dneper SLV launches so that means that it is highly likely that the missile was indeed SS-X-30 (SS-18s aren’t tested since 2014).
I just saw some pictures re SS-X-30’s silo construction work. So possibly really Satan II
November 28, 2025 at 6:33 PM
It turns out that the missile was launched from an SS-18 silo that was reconstructed for Dneper SLV launches so that means that it is highly likely that the missile was indeed SS-X-30 (SS-18s aren’t tested since 2014).
Unless they prepared silo for SS-X-30 test my best bet ‘d be the SS-19 (Dombarovskiy houses them),the SS-18s haven't been tested for quite some time, and I've been told that there is a big problem with the SS-19’s WSR, the missiles are getting old, and there is a need to address the Avangard carrier
A failed rocket launch at the Yasny launch site near Orenburg, Russia.
November 28, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Unless they prepared silo for SS-X-30 test my best bet ‘d be the SS-19 (Dombarovskiy houses them),the SS-18s haven't been tested for quite some time, and I've been told that there is a big problem with the SS-19’s WSR, the missiles are getting old, and there is a need to address the Avangard carrier
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Me: Okay, no politics at my place during thanksgiving
Cat: Mao
Cat: Mao
November 27, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Me: Okay, no politics at my place during thanksgiving
Cat: Mao
Cat: Mao
This is a part of the direct messaging, NATO is *preparing for the possibility* and signals it in advance and intentionally creates a commitment trap (Russia is aware of it). It is necessary, have been long arguing that we need to do something of that nature (essentially almost risk-free but signal)
I hate that this is necessary, but it is. So it’s good that things are moving.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia
Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.
www.politico.eu
November 27, 2025 at 9:56 PM
This is a part of the direct messaging, NATO is *preparing for the possibility* and signals it in advance and intentionally creates a commitment trap (Russia is aware of it). It is necessary, have been long arguing that we need to do something of that nature (essentially almost risk-free but signal)
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
"Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines."
Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.
Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.
I hate that this is necessary, but it is. So it’s good that things are moving.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia
Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.
www.politico.eu
November 27, 2025 at 10:43 AM
"Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and so has to figure out how to respond in a way that deters Moscow but does not cross any Kremlin red lines."
Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.
Europe needs to change its attitude. We need to be willing to run greater risks. Moscow will only be deterred if it fears escalation.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Friends, do not argue about politics today. But if you must, argue with the in-laws about test yield thresholds and the relative merits of a "zero yield" criterion. Not college football or Congress.
Lessons From Los Alamos
America has the most to lose from restarting nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Friends, do not argue about politics today. But if you must, argue with the in-laws about test yield thresholds and the relative merits of a "zero yield" criterion. Not college football or Congress.
Too tired to write something substantial on Chinese paper today (I will probably do tomorrow, some things are imo interesting) but I have to say that the language (“a certain country”) and some framings (“Arms Control - okay, NFU!!!!”) gave an honest lol moments.
November 27, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Too tired to write something substantial on Chinese paper today (I will probably do tomorrow, some things are imo interesting) but I have to say that the language (“a certain country”) and some framings (“Arms Control - okay, NFU!!!!”) gave an honest lol moments.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Future USS District of Columbia (SSBN 826) Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine front section arriving in Groton, Connecticut for final assembly - November 21, 2025 SRC: FB- Naval Sea Systems Command
November 22, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Future USS District of Columbia (SSBN 826) Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine front section arriving in Groton, Connecticut for final assembly - November 21, 2025 SRC: FB- Naval Sea Systems Command
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. May you and your country prosper
November 27, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. May you and your country prosper
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
In principle I appreciate diverse perspectives in the history of (nuclear) science & society.
In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.
In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.
Cold War arms-control pioneers perhaps weren’t peacemakers we thought they were — Harvard Gazette
Nuclear-age historian argues scientists who backed arsenals as deterrent aided military-industrial complex, hampered disarmament.
news.harvard.edu
November 25, 2025 at 10:43 PM
In principle I appreciate diverse perspectives in the history of (nuclear) science & society.
In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.
In practice, when it's as condescending as this, I find myself appreciating the would-be subjects of British imperial anthropology who drove their interlocutors off with spears and Martini-Henry rifles.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
When I stumble across something positive in my news feed about Ukraine, anything at all, it feels like a huge, rare surprise. Most of the time it’s bombings, deaths, and destruction. So here I am, sharing one of those rare good things:
November 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
When I stumble across something positive in my news feed about Ukraine, anything at all, it feels like a huge, rare surprise. Most of the time it’s bombings, deaths, and destruction. So here I am, sharing one of those rare good things:
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Todd Harrison is by resume at least no fool, but this is a very foolish idea, perhaps explained by the fact that in Mr. Harrison's long career he has never worked nuclear matters. This idea does not survive first contact with the facts of that domain.
A very rare work related thread.
A very rare work related thread.
I did not realize there was any interest in this at all.
I agree ICBMs aren’t exactly a great fit for the Air Force, but the arguments they should shift to the Army really aren’t all that compelling. Just doesn’t seem worth the bother.
I agree ICBMs aren’t exactly a great fit for the Air Force, but the arguments they should shift to the Army really aren’t all that compelling. Just doesn’t seem worth the bother.
The time to move ICBMs from the Air Force to the Army is now - Breaking Defense
Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute explains in this op-ed why now is the right time to move the ICBM enterprise from the Air Force to the Army.
breakingdefense.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Todd Harrison is by resume at least no fool, but this is a very foolish idea, perhaps explained by the fact that in Mr. Harrison's long career he has never worked nuclear matters. This idea does not survive first contact with the facts of that domain.
A very rare work related thread.
A very rare work related thread.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Some unfinished maps i recently did showing PLARF brigades and their reach. It also includes US MDTF systems that are being deployed right now. Also included are US-Allied bases in the region and what sort of assets they have regularly. Two DF-11 brigades not included.
November 22, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Some unfinished maps i recently did showing PLARF brigades and their reach. It also includes US MDTF systems that are being deployed right now. Also included are US-Allied bases in the region and what sort of assets they have regularly. Two DF-11 brigades not included.
Ex-Slovak MiG-29AS - you can see MFI-54 MFD panel on the right and PUS-29 input panel in the middle.
Tail number (formerly) 3709.
Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.
Tail number (formerly) 3709.
Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.
❗️A 🇺🇦Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet maneuvers to evade a 🇷🇺Russian missile launched at it from 45 kilometers away.
November 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Ex-Slovak MiG-29AS - you can see MFI-54 MFD panel on the right and PUS-29 input panel in the middle.
Tail number (formerly) 3709.
Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.
Tail number (formerly) 3709.
Also, all indicators in the cockpit are imperial and not metric, but this cannot be seen with this resolution.
A few comments on the proposed deal
No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…
No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…
November 21, 2025 at 10:50 PM
A few comments on the proposed deal
No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…
No ban on LRS and limiting the AFU to a 600k professional army are relatively favourable for Ukraine.The negative form of the guarantees is a problem;it can be assumed that Russia will simply use it for rearmament and preparation for further…
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
💡Have you read our latest FASI paper?
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
November 6, 2025 at 9:15 AM
💡Have you read our latest FASI paper?
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵
Continued
Continued
October 31, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵
Continued
Continued
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
It’s a reasonable assumption but there’s the thing - he already demonstrated that he doesn’t have a very good idea what departments do, specifically DOE. If we assume that “nuclear weapons” means delivery platforms and not devices we must on the other hand consider this as well
October 30, 2025 at 2:37 PM
It’s a reasonable assumption but there’s the thing - he already demonstrated that he doesn’t have a very good idea what departments do, specifically DOE. If we assume that “nuclear weapons” means delivery platforms and not devices we must on the other hand consider this as well
I am thinking about Clausewitz and his application in nuclear warfare (and deterrence). Is there any work that deals with the theoretical principle of war as an isolated vs. non-isolated act and a single short blow?
1/2
1/2
October 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I am thinking about Clausewitz and his application in nuclear warfare (and deterrence). Is there any work that deals with the theoretical principle of war as an isolated vs. non-isolated act and a single short blow?
1/2
1/2
You rarely see Harriers flying. The last vestiges of the Cold War. That's actually why I went there. An amazing aircraft and the spirit of British engineering at its best
#NATOdays
#NATOdays
September 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
You rarely see Harriers flying. The last vestiges of the Cold War. That's actually why I went there. An amazing aircraft and the spirit of British engineering at its best
#NATOdays
#NATOdays
There was a discussion on Twitter about how would NATO counter mass,droned (100s-1000s OWA UAVs) all-azimuth raids,so I’m copy pasting what I wrote there. In short,the answer is dispersion,hardening,and taking decisive action but the devil is in the details
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14
September 13, 2025 at 10:26 AM
There was a discussion on Twitter about how would NATO counter mass,droned (100s-1000s OWA UAVs) all-azimuth raids,so I’m copy pasting what I wrote there. In short,the answer is dispersion,hardening,and taking decisive action but the devil is in the details
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14