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Michael Lowry

@michaelrlowry.bsky.social

6.4K followers 210 following 420 posts

Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at Miami's WPLG-TV Local 10 News. Posts my own. http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · May 31

It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but yesterday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes.com I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead?

Opinion | How Far Can We Degrade Our Hurricane Forecasting Before People End Up Dead?

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 1h

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop late this week along the East Coast, bringing a renewed surge of onshore winds and moderate-to-major coastal flooding to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic shores.

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 2h

Jerry Seinfeld Stand Up GIF

ALT: Jerry Seinfeld Stand Up GIF

media.tenor.com

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 2h

Jerry's a top 1% in terms of its fast movement through the deep tropics. Its speed is knocking its circulation off kilter but it should organize as it slows and turns near the islands. Also, as Jerry would say, what's the deal with the weekend nor'easter?

Jerry Forms but Slow to Strengthen, Tropical Storm Watches Issued for the Northern Leeward Islands

Jerry forecast to pass near the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane tomorrow and Friday but turn well east of the U.S.

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 23h

My 2 year old has learned that if he asks to "look at the radar" there's a good chance he'll get to see my phone :)

nathanwpyle @nathanwpyle.bsky.social · 1d

there’s always one person in the family who looks at the Doppler radar

5 emotionless people look at one person who is viewing a laptop screen and saying hmmmm

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 23h

Tropical Storm Jerry forms over the central Atlantic and becomes the tenth named storm of the season.

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 1d

I assume this is due to some convective parametrization issue? We've seen this for several years now but seems noticeably worse this season, especially at shorter lead times.

Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 1d

Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1 issued at Tue, 07 Oct 2025 14:35:01 +0000
...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
Additional Details Here.

000WTNT35 KNHC 071434TCPAT5 BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020251100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC......THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...11.5N 44.6WABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor theprogress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be requiredlater today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consultproducts from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be foundat: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$Forecaster Cangialosi

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 1d

By the looks of it, we'll have Jerry sooner rather than later. Soon-to-be Jerry is poised to be a hurricane as it passes precariously close to parts of the Leeward Islands by late week. Meanwhile I talk about the coastal storm closer to home for next week.

Tropical Depression Forming, Could Become a Hurricane as It Nears the Leeward Islands Thursday and Friday

Soon-to-be Jerry could move precariously close to the easternmost Caribbean islands as a hurricane by Thursday and Friday

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 1d

NHC outlook 8pm EDT Oct 6th: 1) System in C Tropical Atlantic (#AL95) has high genesis chance (90%🔴). Northern Leeward Islands should monitor. 2) Trough crossing Yucatan has low genesis chance (10%🟡) in Bay of Campeche before moving into... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1975355238052946275

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 1d

On September 27, 2025, Hurricane Humberto reached its peak intensity as a Category Five hurricane well northeast of Puerto Rico on its journey across the western Atlantic Ocean. The polar orbiting satellite Suomi-NPP captured a spectacular view of the clear eye of Humberto. (1/5)

This image of Hurricane Humberto contains the visible (band I1) product from the S-NPP weather satellite from 17:10 UTC on 2025-09-27.

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 1d

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Mon, 06 Oct 2025 17:27:57 UTC
Additional Details Here.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):<br>Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure <br>located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming <br>better organized. Environmental conditions appear generally <br>conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical <br>depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while <br>it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical <br>Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the <br>northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there <br>should monitor its progress. <br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.<br><br>2. Northwestern Caribbean and Southwestern Gulf:<br>A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean <br>Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and <br>thunderstorms. This system is expected to move across the Yucatan <br>Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, and then track over the Bay of <br>Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some slow development of <br>this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle <br>of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and <br>gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, <br>Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Cangialosi<br><br><br>

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 2d

The next Atlantic threat figures to pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cent...

Central Atlantic disturbance 95L likely to develop » Yale Climate Connections

The system is likely to be near the Leeward Islands on Thursday or Friday.

yaleclimateconnections.org

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Dr. Stephen Bieda III @drwildcatwx.bsky.social · 2d

This is the PNS for the #EnderlinTornado upgrade to EF-5, the first since the #MooreTornado on May 20, 2013. #Tornado #EnhancedFujitaScale #EFScale

IEMBot Grand Forks @fgf.weather.im · 2d

#FGF issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Oct 6, 9:30 AM CDT ...Enderlin Tornado #1 Upgraded to EF-5... Link

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Matt Lanza @mattlanza.bsky.social · 2d

12 years is a long time. A good stretch. But the EF-5 “drought” has ended.

Also, this is a lesson to the Monday morning quarterbacks that this took *3 months* to confirm. Good analysis takes time. So save your hot takes immediately after an event.

IEMBot Grand Forks @fgf.weather.im · 2d

#FGF issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Oct 6, 9:30 AM CDT ...Enderlin Tornado #1 Upgraded to EF-5... Link

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 2d

The only game in town this week is Invest 95L, which looks poised to become Jerry in the days ahead. It'll make a close pass to the islands, though trends favor a miss north. Something to watch. Also, I spy a cold front over South Florida... 👀

Tropical System Likely to Form, Could Strengthen as It Nears the Easternmost Caribbean Islands Later this Week

Invest 95L could become Jerry before the week is out, passing near or north of the Lesser Antilles

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Chris Dolce @chrisdolcewx.bsky.social · 3d

Football on a hail-covered field. That’s a new one to me.

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 4d

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Fri, 03 Oct 2025 23:45:45 UTC
Additional Details Here.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Bahamas and Southern Florida:<br>A weak area of low pressure located near the central and <br>northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. <br>This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the <br>northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next <br>couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent <br>significant development of the low, however the combination of the <br>disturbance and the broader remnant boundary is still expected to <br>produce heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of <br>Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br>2. Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa is producing a broad <br>area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is <br>forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern <br>tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental <br>conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow <br>development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression <br>could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next <br>week.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Bucci<br><br><br>

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 4d

As of today, 2025 has had more ACE accrued than 2024 did by now (and 2022, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, etc). Historically, roughly 20% of a season's activity still lies ahead.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/two-...

Two areas of interest to watch in first week of October

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 5d

Gust of 89.8mph reported at Eglinton, Northern Ireland at 1520 UTC #StormAmy

METAR EGAE 031520Z 23055G78KT

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 5d

The hurricane season isn't slowing anytime soon. Thankfully the area near Florida is unlikely to develop but will keep the wet weather around this weekend. It's the system to the east that looks like the next storm candidate, especially by late next week.

No Slowdown in Hurricane Season to Start October

Area near Florida unlikely to develop but could enhance weekend rains while development odds are growing for the central Atlantic next week

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 5d

Following their dance together near the United States' East Coast, the last few days saw Hurricane Imelda absorb the remnants of Hurricane Humberto after its dissipation.

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 5d

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Thu, 02 Oct 2025 17:18:43 UTC
Additional Details Here.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>Active Systems:<br>The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on <br>Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda, located east-northeast of Bermuda.<br><br>1. Southwestern Atlantic:<br>An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary <br>near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next <br>day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to <br>occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula <br>and into the Gulf of America.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br>2. Central Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the <br>next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with <br>another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow <br>development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves <br>westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Reinhart<br><br><br>

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 6d

The Cabo Verde portion of the hurricane season may head into overtime next week with a new area to watch. The good news for the U.S. is storms forming this far east in October and November rarely pose any problems. Something to monitor for the islands. ⬇️

Imelda Strikes Bermuda, New Area to Watch for Next Week in the Atlantic

About half of Bermuda was without power early Thursday after Imelda struck during the overnight hours

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Reposted by Michael Lowry

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 6d

Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 7d

Impressed to see pressures tumbling into the 960s this morning inside Imelda from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter's first pass through its core. Surprised winds on the back side aren't higher yet but imagine they'll catch up today to the pressure falls and faster forward speed.

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