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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Apr 3

In case people are salivating over the idiotic tariff formula for research papers, @jakejares.bsky.social and I took advantage of another simplistic formula for the 2018 farm bailout: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Policy Impact and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Farmers’ Trade War Experiences | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

Policy Impact and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Farmers’ Trade War Experiences

www.cambridge.org

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Apr 2

I wonder if in the future universities should raise these funds as insurance when the interest rate environment is much better. Stanford got a steal on bond issuances (like 1%-2% or something) a few years ago. I bet these are probably 6-7% or something?

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 27

Only about 35% of UAW members work in the auto industry. Only about 25% work for the two US auto manufacturers (GM and Ford).

Regime Accountant, CPA ☠️🎢 @regimecpa.bsky.social · Mar 27

“What if the UAW are right about what is good for them?” would be a lot more convincing if they were not cheering on the destruction of the industry they work in. We’re capable of recognizing CEOs as economically irrational, unions can be too.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 12

Can you send me an email?

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 12

We are hiring a pre-doc at Stanford to work on (among other things) a project called Public Pulse, which will provide reports on public opinion in the US, and potentially fill the void of things like 538. Please share with your undergrads. iriss.stanford.edu/predoc/2025-...

2025–26 Faculty Research Projects | Institute for Research in the Social Sciences

iriss.stanford.edu

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 7

It is quite a shame. Most of Tesla is owned by schoolteachers, janitors, nurses, government employees, etc. Further, given the poor performance of GM/Ford/Lucid/Rivian (and the disinterest of Toyota), this was a good bet for an electric car future (particularly since current gvnt won't invest)

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 3

Although it is true that if the Dems did not have knife-edge wins in Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan, this would look a lot worse. I agree that if you just look at the presidential vote share, it does have an R bias, but maybe that is just a Trump thing.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 3

Yeah, this is too long for social media, but there are LOTS of flaws with that blog post. The Senate's malapportionment has massive demographic biases, but the partisan biases are probably not as big as people make them out to be, mainly due to recent pop declines in blue states.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Mar 3

If you look at the last 3 Senate elections that produce the current body (2020, 2022, 2024), it looks like GOP has slight majority of votes, so 53-47 doesn't seem that out of line with a seats-vote curve. Very complex because of general equil, uncontested seats, etc.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 21

My favorite discontinued products are: (1) Jello 1-2-3; (2) Nestle Alpine White chocolate bar. I would pay a lot of money for those.

The New York Times @nytimes.com · Feb 21

Tab soda, NARS lip pencils and more.

There’s a thriving online market for discontinued products that fans are willing to pay dearly for. Here's a look into what customers are hitting up eBay and other resale sites to find.

When They Stop Selling Your Favorite Thing

Shoppers are going online to pay dearly for discontinued items, from the perfect lip pencil to Tab.

www.nytimes.com

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 20

If this is actually true, it is insane. It means that the value of X/Twitter has not dropped one penny since Musk bought it in 2022. It means that market is signaling the monetary value of Musk's relationship to the most powerful person on Earth. techcrunch.com/2025/02/19/x...

X in talks to raise money at a $44B valuation | TechCrunch

Elon Musk's X is in talks to raise money from investors at a $44 billion valuation, Bloomberg News reports. Musk purchased X, formerly known as Twitter,

techcrunch.com

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 6

Well, the costs also fell, and I think the revenue fall has to do with its moderation policies, not its headcount. Meta stock price skyrocketed after the layoffs and they didn't see advertisers leave. Basically, Elon overpaid for a bad business, but it was bad before Elon bought it.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 5

It's pretty amazing that this is a fairly extreme Cabinet and there will be only one failure (Gaetz). In comparison, Obama (2008) had three failures of moderate normies: Tom Daschle, Bill Richardson, Judd Gregg

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 5

Great paper. Seems in line with this other paper on the "subversion dilemma": aletheia-platform.netlify.app/publication/...

The Subversion Dilemma: Why Voters Who Cherish Democracy Participate in Democratic Backsliding | Aletheia

Around the world, citizens are voting away the democracies they claim to cherish. Why are they voting against their own values? In this article, we provide evidence that this behavior is driven in par...

aletheia-platform.netlify.app

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 5

This is one of the most electorally skilled politicians in the D Party. Interesting messaging that I think would resonate well outside of Bluesky. People don't care about USAID, impoundment, etc. But Americans wanted a strong leader, who now seems weak because he doesn't have his team under control.

Congressman Jared Golden @golden.house.gov · Feb 4

I’ve been getting a lot of calls over the past few days, and the interesting thing is none of them are about Donald Trump. They’re all about Elon Musk. My constituents, and a majority of this country, put Trump in the White House, not this unelected, weirdo billionaire.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 4

They are drawing the wrong lessons from X/Twitter. The story of Twitter (which Meta and SV generally copied) is that you can fire 90% of the low interest rate workforce and the product basically works. That doesn't apply to fed gvnt.

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Reposted by Neil Malhotra

Sean Gailmard @sean-gailmard.bsky.social · Feb 3

GOP presidents take different (legal) actions to control the executive branch, not because they have stronger will, but because they face a more acute problem of control. The agency loss for a GOP president is larger than for Dem presidents, and the difference is growing.

Yashar Ali 🐘 @yasharali.bsky.social · Feb 3

Once again, a Trump presidency is an amazing lesson in how much authority the president has.

Not referring to his illegal actions but his legal actions that many people on this app don’t like.

My point: Democratic presidents have under utilized their executive power.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 3

In the 1990s, three African American women won Album of the Year: Natalie Cole, Whitney Houston, and Lauryn Hill. This is the first since 1999.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 2

"I hereby pardon Elon Musk for all and any crimes that could have been committed from 2005 to the present" (Dec. 2028)

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 2

I am asking a literal question of what it means to "cut off federal tax payments." I'm sure there are ways for "states to react" but I have no clue what "cut off federal tax payments" means.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Feb 2

I have no clue what that means. The state of California doesn't send a check or tax payment to the federal government. Wealthy CA taxpayers individually contribute to federal tax receipts. Are you suggesting that Newsom convince residents to risk prison and not pay their federal taxes?

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Jan 31

I wrote this paper a few years ago on how direct flight availability affects Congressional careers. Potentially relevant today in that Congress has a authority over DCA airport, and it's fairly well known they push for lots of flights in and out of it. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Transaction Costs and Congressional Careers: The Effect of Flight Availability on Retirement Decisions

How do the transaction costs of office holding affect congressional careers? These costs may influence the kinds of people who select into public office and therefore the representativeness of democr...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Jan 26

I actually think Ds don't have structural problems (but maybe I'm in minority). Counterfactual question: If Trump was killed, who would have won the election? I think the Dem candidate (may have been Biden), because Trump is just such a unique rock star in that party.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Jan 25

You might also be interested in reading the work of Andrew Noymer. He is a Covid hawk and very pro lockdown. He believes in lab leak, and thinks that Fauci purposely started calling for the end of lockdowns once the "gain of function" emails were released.

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Neil Malhotra @nmalhotra.bsky.social · Jan 25

You could also reverse your question on the flipside. Why were the Covid hawks so insistent that Covid did not come from a lab? Somehow criticizing a research program funded by white scientists is "racist" but saying that it came from a market is "not racist"?

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