Natalia Tuzovskaya
@ntuzovskaya.bsky.social
Europe and Central Asia Media, Coms and Advocacy, @crisisgroup.org / PhD / Former #BBC World Service and #BBC Russian.
Pinned
Short intro: all things media, coms, advocacy of @crisisgroup.org work on the war in Ukraine, South Caucasus, Western Balkans, and Türkiye.
Any questions? Please get in touch.
Here: some of the most insightful, thought-provoking and sharpest bits of my colleagues' analysis.
Any questions? Please get in touch.
Here: some of the most insightful, thought-provoking and sharpest bits of my colleagues' analysis.
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
🔴 LIVE NOW | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
A tumultuous start to 2026: Venezuela in crisis, protests in Iran, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org and @chathamhouse.org's Marion Messmer on the world’s most pressing conflicts
www.youtube.com/live/pnBa4yd...
A tumultuous start to 2026: Venezuela in crisis, protests in Iran, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org and @chathamhouse.org's Marion Messmer on the world’s most pressing conflicts
www.youtube.com/live/pnBa4yd...
Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026 | Chatham House event
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
January 15, 2026 at 5:17 PM
🔴 LIVE NOW | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
A tumultuous start to 2026: Venezuela in crisis, protests in Iran, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org and @chathamhouse.org's Marion Messmer on the world’s most pressing conflicts
www.youtube.com/live/pnBa4yd...
A tumultuous start to 2026: Venezuela in crisis, protests in Iran, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
@comfortero.crisisgroup.org and @chathamhouse.org's Marion Messmer on the world’s most pressing conflicts
www.youtube.com/live/pnBa4yd...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
December 31, 2025 at 2:22 PM
NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Now also available in Armenian!
January 5, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Now also available in Armenian!
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Welcoming my brilliant colleague @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social to Bluesky. Follow her for Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, the South Caucasus, Western Balkans, and European security and related issues write large. You won't regret it.
January 5, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Welcoming my brilliant colleague @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social to Bluesky. Follow her for Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, the South Caucasus, Western Balkans, and European security and related issues write large. You won't regret it.
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
I am not sure the Trump administration views an end to NATO, caused, say, by prospective efforts to seize Greenland, as a downside. Their many NATO-sceptical comments suggest they do not understand what the benefits of NATO to the US actually are. So challenge for allies is to break that down a bit.
January 7, 2026 at 12:49 PM
I am not sure the Trump administration views an end to NATO, caused, say, by prospective efforts to seize Greenland, as a downside. Their many NATO-sceptical comments suggest they do not understand what the benefits of NATO to the US actually are. So challenge for allies is to break that down a bit.
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Happy Tuesday. I'm still thinking about air incursions. You, too? As I wrote nearly two weeks ago, there are some advantages to occasionally shooting down the odd unauthorized aircraft in one's sky. However, it's a bad idea to have a policy of always shooting everything down. A 🧵 1/6
Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September
www.crisisgroup.org
September 23, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Happy Tuesday. I'm still thinking about air incursions. You, too? As I wrote nearly two weeks ago, there are some advantages to occasionally shooting down the odd unauthorized aircraft in one's sky. However, it's a bad idea to have a policy of always shooting everything down. A 🧵 1/6
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
September 10, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
After the Anchorage and Washington mtgs: regardless of the odds of bringing about a durable peace between Russia and Ukraine, negotiators will have a better shot if they are guided by the following five realities as they consider how to approach additional talks.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War | International Crisis Group
As the dust settles on two whirlwind summits, it is clear only that diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar. Crisis Group experts offer observations about five realiti...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 22, 2025 at 12:28 PM
After the Anchorage and Washington mtgs: regardless of the odds of bringing about a durable peace between Russia and Ukraine, negotiators will have a better shot if they are guided by the following five realities as they consider how to approach additional talks.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
My @crisisgroup.org colleagues on why the diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar & how it can be achieved: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War | International Crisis Group
As the dust settles on two whirlwind summits, it is clear only that diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar. Crisis Group experts offer observations about five realiti...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 22, 2025 at 12:25 PM
My @crisisgroup.org colleagues on why the diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar & how it can be achieved: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Can't say I'm surprised by discussion of an "air truce" proposal for Russia-Ukraine apparently coming from US-Ru talks. Also can't say I'm optimistic about it. I am curious if it would also ban drone strikes near the front lines, or if it's meant to just isolate the fighting to those front lines.
August 6, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Can't say I'm surprised by discussion of an "air truce" proposal for Russia-Ukraine apparently coming from US-Ru talks. Also can't say I'm optimistic about it. I am curious if it would also ban drone strikes near the front lines, or if it's meant to just isolate the fighting to those front lines.
All the latest on #Ukraine's response to Russia’s offensive, its biggest challenges, the shifting US role, & the most realistic scenarios for autumn.
From my colleague @luciankim.bsky.social who just came back from the country:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
From my colleague @luciankim.bsky.social who just came back from the country:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
In a Tight Spot, Ukraine Resolves to Fight On | International Crisis Group
Over three years into Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukrainian troops are confronting another grinding Russian summer offensive. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim discusses the status of Kyiv’s ...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 5, 2025 at 5:34 PM
All the latest on #Ukraine's response to Russia’s offensive, its biggest challenges, the shifting US role, & the most realistic scenarios for autumn.
From my colleague @luciankim.bsky.social who just came back from the country:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
From my colleague @luciankim.bsky.social who just came back from the country:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
Our Global Tracker is out ⬇️
Crucial feature this month:
🕊️conflict resolution opportunity following a peace agreement between Kinshasa & Kigali. Can it help quell hostilities in eastern DR Congo or will Kigali’s conditions for its withdrawal pose obstacles?
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
Crucial feature this month:
🕊️conflict resolution opportunity following a peace agreement between Kinshasa & Kigali. Can it help quell hostilities in eastern DR Congo or will Kigali’s conditions for its withdrawal pose obstacles?
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
July 3, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Our Global Tracker is out ⬇️
Crucial feature this month:
🕊️conflict resolution opportunity following a peace agreement between Kinshasa & Kigali. Can it help quell hostilities in eastern DR Congo or will Kigali’s conditions for its withdrawal pose obstacles?
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
Crucial feature this month:
🕊️conflict resolution opportunity following a peace agreement between Kinshasa & Kigali. Can it help quell hostilities in eastern DR Congo or will Kigali’s conditions for its withdrawal pose obstacles?
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.”
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
Delegation to the EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee, EU-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, and the EU-Georgia Parliamentary Association Committee Ordinary Meeting - Multimedi...
The multimedia platform of the European Parliament is the official public available repository of the media production of the Secretariat of the European Parliament, managed by the Directorate-General...
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu
June 27, 2025 at 10:22 AM
“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.”
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
“The move from lofty pledges to hard thinking about real threats, available resources and critical capability gaps still awaits”. Marta Mucznik assesses the significant gaps left by the #NATOSummit.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
NATO Summit Hails Unity as U.S. Drawdown in Europe Remains Unspoken | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the pledges and ambiguities of this week’s gathering in The Hague
www.crisisgroup.org
June 26, 2025 at 12:05 PM
“The move from lofty pledges to hard thinking about real threats, available resources and critical capability gaps still awaits”. Marta Mucznik assesses the significant gaps left by the #NATOSummit.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
What's left unsaid after #NATO Summit?
My @crisisgroup.org colleague's analysis:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
My @crisisgroup.org colleague's analysis:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
NATO Summit Hails Unity as U.S. Drawdown in Europe Remains Unspoken | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the pledges and ambiguities of this week’s gathering in The Hague
www.crisisgroup.org
June 26, 2025 at 11:21 AM
What's left unsaid after #NATO Summit?
My @crisisgroup.org colleague's analysis:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
My @crisisgroup.org colleague's analysis:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
NATO gathers: as U.S. recalibrates its role & Russia presses Ukraine, a certain amount of improvisation seems destined to be part of Europe’s security architecture, both when it comes to war in Ukraine & when it comes to other future challenges.
www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org
www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org
A Way Forward for Europe’s Coalitions of the Willing | International Crisis Group
Whatever the forthcoming NATO summit decides, the alliance’s European members are preparing for a continuing threat from Russia and reduced U.S. support for Ukrainian and regional security. To this en...
www.crisisgroup.org
June 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM
NATO gathers: as U.S. recalibrates its role & Russia presses Ukraine, a certain amount of improvisation seems destined to be part of Europe’s security architecture, both when it comes to war in Ukraine & when it comes to other future challenges.
www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org
www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org
Ahead of #Armenia PM Pashinyan’s historic visit to #Turkey starting today, my colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social explores how to build momentum for peace between the neighbours, and what most affects the normalisation of Ankara-Yerevan ties: www.sessizolmaz.org/blog-88-dyna...
DYNAMICS IN THE TURKEY- AZERBAIJAN- ARMENIA TRIANGLE
In this interview, our guest is Nigar Göksel, and our topic is the relations between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Göksel has worked throughout her career in civil society and international relatio...
www.sessizolmaz.org
June 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Ahead of #Armenia PM Pashinyan’s historic visit to #Turkey starting today, my colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social explores how to build momentum for peace between the neighbours, and what most affects the normalisation of Ankara-Yerevan ties: www.sessizolmaz.org/blog-88-dyna...
With Washington signalling a drawdown in Ukraine aid, pressure is mounting to seize Russia’s sovereign assets.
Legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate the funds.
@crisisgroup.org explains how the money could be leveraged in talks to end the war: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate the funds.
@crisisgroup.org explains how the money could be leveraged in talks to end the war: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
A Frozen Conflict: The Dilemmas of Seizing Russia’s Money for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Several countries froze Russian assets after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate these funds to support Kyiv. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explai...
www.crisisgroup.org
June 17, 2025 at 11:39 AM
With Washington signalling a drawdown in Ukraine aid, pressure is mounting to seize Russia’s sovereign assets.
Legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate the funds.
@crisisgroup.org explains how the money could be leveraged in talks to end the war: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate the funds.
@crisisgroup.org explains how the money could be leveraged in talks to end the war: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
🧵1 /4 The chance to end Türkiye’s 40-year conflict with the PKK is real, especially after the group’s May announcement to disband. But the process remains fraught, and clashes persist.
Our latest updates and further analysis here: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...
Our latest updates and further analysis here: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...
Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer | International Crisis Group
www.crisisgroup.org
June 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
🧵1 /4 The chance to end Türkiye’s 40-year conflict with the PKK is real, especially after the group’s May announcement to disband. But the process remains fraught, and clashes persist.
Our latest updates and further analysis here: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...
Our latest updates and further analysis here: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...
1/4 🧵 #Ukraine drone attack: my @crisisgroup.org colleague
examines the impact and timing of Operation Spiderweb: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
examines the impact and timing of Operation Spiderweb: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Seeks to Shift Balance in Talks | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov on the effects and timing of Operation Spiderweb.
www.crisisgroup.org
June 2, 2025 at 6:15 PM
1/4 🧵 #Ukraine drone attack: my @crisisgroup.org colleague
examines the impact and timing of Operation Spiderweb: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
examines the impact and timing of Operation Spiderweb: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
“We’re probably looking at a return to Istanbul.”
@luciankim.bsky.social discusses prospects for renewed 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 peace talks, chances of progress, & what the apparent U.S. pullback means for Moscow, Kyiv, & its European backers.
Your @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
@luciankim.bsky.social discusses prospects for renewed 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 peace talks, chances of progress, & what the apparent U.S. pullback means for Moscow, Kyiv, & its European backers.
Your @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Ukraine: The Battlefield and the Negotiating Table | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Crisis Group’s senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the war in Ukraine, including recent battlefield developments and the status of dipl...
www.crisisgroup.org
May 27, 2025 at 4:12 PM
“We’re probably looking at a return to Istanbul.”
@luciankim.bsky.social discusses prospects for renewed 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 peace talks, chances of progress, & what the apparent U.S. pullback means for Moscow, Kyiv, & its European backers.
Your @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
@luciankim.bsky.social discusses prospects for renewed 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 peace talks, chances of progress, & what the apparent U.S. pullback means for Moscow, Kyiv, & its European backers.
Your @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
What’s behind #US proposed deal & the European and #Ukraine counter-proposal?
What’s problematic? What is smart? And do how do prospects for ceasefire look at this stage?
Your weekend 🎧 from @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
What’s problematic? What is smart? And do how do prospects for ceasefire look at this stage?
Your weekend 🎧 from @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine? | Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine, Kyiv’s and Europe’s response, the U.S.-Ukrain...
www.crisisgroup.org
May 4, 2025 at 2:14 PM
What’s behind #US proposed deal & the European and #Ukraine counter-proposal?
What’s problematic? What is smart? And do how do prospects for ceasefire look at this stage?
Your weekend 🎧 from @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
What’s problematic? What is smart? And do how do prospects for ceasefire look at this stage?
Your weekend 🎧 from @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Reposted by Natalia Tuzovskaya
In Paris next Wednesday? Come listen as we ponder, explicate, and speculate!
#Agenda 📆 | Conference "The Russia-Ukraine War and the Future of the Security Order"
🗣️ With: @haukkala.bsky.social , @olyaoliker.bsky.social, and Amb. Pierre Vimont.
➡️ Registration required via: shorturl.at/VQ3Kf
👋 @davidcadier.bsky.social , Maud Quessard
🗣️ With: @haukkala.bsky.social , @olyaoliker.bsky.social, and Amb. Pierre Vimont.
➡️ Registration required via: shorturl.at/VQ3Kf
👋 @davidcadier.bsky.social , Maud Quessard
April 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
In Paris next Wednesday? Come listen as we ponder, explicate, and speculate!
#Armenia, #Azerbaijan and #Georgia foreign ministers almost never discuss South Caucasus security challenges publicly together.
Watch this unique conversation with questions from my brilliant colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social at #ADF www.youtube.com/live/xP1NWKb...
Watch this unique conversation with questions from my brilliant colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social at #ADF www.youtube.com/live/xP1NWKb...
LIVE: South Caucasus Panel at Antalya Diplomacy Forum 2025 | ADF 2025 LIVE | DRM News LIVE
YouTube video by DRM News Live
www.youtube.com
April 12, 2025 at 12:47 PM
#Armenia, #Azerbaijan and #Georgia foreign ministers almost never discuss South Caucasus security challenges publicly together.
Watch this unique conversation with questions from my brilliant colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social at #ADF www.youtube.com/live/xP1NWKb...
Watch this unique conversation with questions from my brilliant colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social at #ADF www.youtube.com/live/xP1NWKb...
As the latest news from Riyadh emerges, both #Ukraine and #Russia agreed to stop military strikes in the Black Sea (per 🇺🇸).
The US-Russia talks also touched upon commercial shipping & potentially restoring the 2022 grain deal.
@crisisgroup.org analysis of it: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
The US-Russia talks also touched upon commercial shipping & potentially restoring the 2022 grain deal.
@crisisgroup.org analysis of it: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Who are the Winners in the Black Sea Grain Deal? | Crisis Group
Months of diplomacy have yielded a set of agreements allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts assess gains from the accord, which could be significant even...
www.crisisgroup.org
March 25, 2025 at 4:10 PM
As the latest news from Riyadh emerges, both #Ukraine and #Russia agreed to stop military strikes in the Black Sea (per 🇺🇸).
The US-Russia talks also touched upon commercial shipping & potentially restoring the 2022 grain deal.
@crisisgroup.org analysis of it: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
The US-Russia talks also touched upon commercial shipping & potentially restoring the 2022 grain deal.
@crisisgroup.org analysis of it: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...