ObjectivelyDrew
@objectivelydrew.bsky.social
Data over opinion (including mine)
College sports metrics
Design, UX, human/visual interaction
Father. Hot sauce chemist. Games of all kinds & their theory and design.
College sports metrics
Design, UX, human/visual interaction
Father. Hot sauce chemist. Games of all kinds & their theory and design.
Pinned
#promosky
I'm Drew, a designer in ad/marketing focused on the 👨🔬 behind human/visual interaction. More importantly...
I love data. Especially in sports. If you love that, please consider following here, and at
tinyurl.com/4weuh8rr
I also love:
🎮Video games
🎲 TTRPGs
🎨Creating
⁉️Game theory
Say hi!
I'm Drew, a designer in ad/marketing focused on the 👨🔬 behind human/visual interaction. More importantly...
I love data. Especially in sports. If you love that, please consider following here, and at
tinyurl.com/4weuh8rr
I also love:
🎮Video games
🎲 TTRPGs
🎨Creating
⁉️Game theory
Say hi!
New Mexico and Minnesota were 4.2% likely to go to overtime.
Lobos won 57.14% of those contests over the Golden Gophers.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Lobos won 57.14% of those contests over the Golden Gophers.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 27, 2025 at 1:00 AM
New Mexico and Minnesota were 4.2% likely to go to overtime.
Lobos won 57.14% of those contests over the Golden Gophers.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Lobos won 57.14% of those contests over the Golden Gophers.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
One of the few times in the year I take off from sports entirely. Anyone else love spending Christmas in the kitchen cooking for the family?
Now time for a drink before bed.
Now time for a drink before bed.
December 26, 2025 at 5:10 AM
One of the few times in the year I take off from sports entirely. Anyone else love spending Christmas in the kitchen cooking for the family?
Now time for a drink before bed.
Now time for a drink before bed.
Catching up this next day - What a way to fulfill the prophecy.
Here's the Hawai'i Bowl scoring probabilty! Hawai'i wins 69% of 500 simulations.
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Catching up this next day - What a way to fulfill the prophecy.
Here's the Hawai'i Bowl scoring probabilty! Hawai'i wins 69% of 500 simulations.
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 24, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Here's the Hawai'i Bowl scoring probabilty! Hawai'i wins 69% of 500 simulations.
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Happy holidays to all. I'm going to take a few days off from these, but will be back with the next round of the CFP, where the simulator is 15/15 going back to last year.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
And tonight, we've got the Frisco Bowl between Ohio and UNLV. This has the potential to be really exciting, with UNLV winning just 50.4% of matchups.
It's a shame this color palette isn't in the Holiday Bowl.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
It's a shame this color palette isn't in the Holiday Bowl.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 23, 2025 at 10:34 PM
And tonight, we've got the Frisco Bowl between Ohio and UNLV. This has the potential to be really exciting, with UNLV winning just 50.4% of matchups.
It's a shame this color palette isn't in the Holiday Bowl.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
It's a shame this color palette isn't in the Holiday Bowl.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Next up, the scoring probability for Southern Miss and Western Kentucky just ahead of the New Orleans Bowl kickoff.
WKU wins 60% of simulations.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
WKU wins 60% of simulations.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 23, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Next up, the scoring probability for Southern Miss and Western Kentucky just ahead of the New Orleans Bowl kickoff.
WKU wins 60% of simulations.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
WKU wins 60% of simulations.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
Running behind from family/holidays/etc but here are scoring probabilities for Louisville / Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Louisville is getting into their comfort zone, winning more of the high scoring matchups.
Louisville is getting into their comfort zone, winning more of the high scoring matchups.
December 23, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Running behind from family/holidays/etc but here are scoring probabilities for Louisville / Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Louisville is getting into their comfort zone, winning more of the high scoring matchups.
Louisville is getting into their comfort zone, winning more of the high scoring matchups.
Scoring probability chart time: today's Idaho Potato bowl starring Washington State and Utah State, a pair of .500 teams also evenly matched - Utah State wins 52.2% of the time.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
December 22, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Scoring probability chart time: today's Idaho Potato bowl starring Washington State and Utah State, a pair of .500 teams also evenly matched - Utah State wins 52.2% of the time.
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
#cfb #cfbsky #bowlseason
If Kiffin disappoints, I don't think it'll be because of the same reasons as Frost or Fickell. This Miss team has outliers - ranked #125 for a strength of schedule measured by opponents' averages for yards/point margin/turnovers/penalties. LSU has routinely been in the top 10 by that measure.
We've seen 30 new FBS head coaching hires in this carousel thus far. I graded them.
(I'm an easy grader. Most hires made sense. A couple made ... less sense.)
www.espn.com/college-foot...
(I'm an easy grader. Most hires made sense. A couple made ... less sense.)
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Ranking the FBS coaching hires: How all 30 moves grade out
The coaching changes came at a dizzying clip. Which schools did the best -- and worst -- jobs?
www.espn.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
If Kiffin disappoints, I don't think it'll be because of the same reasons as Frost or Fickell. This Miss team has outliers - ranked #125 for a strength of schedule measured by opponents' averages for yards/point margin/turnovers/penalties. LSU has routinely been in the top 10 by that measure.
Alright amidst all Da Bears hurrah I have to revisit this slop:
Announcing the simulator is now 4-for-4 and has not gotten a #CFB playoff outcome wrong since expansion last year. 15/15 overall.
VegasESPN prediction algos only got 50%
(👋 OU / A&M)
Announcing the simulator is now 4-for-4 and has not gotten a #CFB playoff outcome wrong since expansion last year. 15/15 overall.
VegasESPN prediction algos only got 50%
(👋 OU / A&M)
Finally, we've got tonight's matchup between James Madison and Oregon. The Ducks win 52.4% of the matchups over the Dukes - which sounds like a much closer game than projected - but the average margin of victory is still 12.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
December 21, 2025 at 5:30 AM
Alright amidst all Da Bears hurrah I have to revisit this slop:
Announcing the simulator is now 4-for-4 and has not gotten a #CFB playoff outcome wrong since expansion last year. 15/15 overall.
VegasESPN prediction algos only got 50%
(👋 OU / A&M)
Announcing the simulator is now 4-for-4 and has not gotten a #CFB playoff outcome wrong since expansion last year. 15/15 overall.
VegasESPN prediction algos only got 50%
(👋 OU / A&M)
Once again proving that the coach who wins the Late Game is always better than the coach who simply had a lead
LaFleur completed outcoached Johnson tonight. Bears absolutely deserve to lose and until they beat Green Bay none of this means anything.
December 21, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Once again proving that the coach who wins the Late Game is always better than the coach who simply had a lead
I don't love the prospect of the Bears playing competent playoff caliber teams but at least we know it'll be better than watching the Pack flub in a Game That Matters™
I will say that Caleb Williams looking like ass for 50 minutes then uncorking some of the most insane throws you've ever seen is very reminiscent of '07 Eli.
Did not think the Bears were one of those Disney movie miracle season-ass teams, but maybe?
December 21, 2025 at 4:42 AM
I don't love the prospect of the Bears playing competent playoff caliber teams but at least we know it'll be better than watching the Pack flub in a Game That Matters™
Even better that it was against a QB who went to the Falwell cult instead of a college
December 21, 2025 at 4:32 AM
Even better that it was against a QB who went to the Falwell cult instead of a college
Seems like the hard part is over for the day, unless JMU wants to get crazy out there for us.
The simulator is 3-for-3 on round 1 games.
The simulator is 3-for-3 on round 1 games.
And here's the scoring probability graph for Mississippi and Tulane. Will the Kiffin abandonment have an effect and close the gap for the Green Wave? Based on season data, Miss. wins 75.6% of simulated matchups.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
December 21, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Seems like the hard part is over for the day, unless JMU wants to get crazy out there for us.
The simulator is 3-for-3 on round 1 games.
The simulator is 3-for-3 on round 1 games.
Finally, we've got tonight's matchup between James Madison and Oregon. The Ducks win 52.4% of the matchups over the Dukes - which sounds like a much closer game than projected - but the average margin of victory is still 12.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
December 20, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Finally, we've got tonight's matchup between James Madison and Oregon. The Ducks win 52.4% of the matchups over the Dukes - which sounds like a much closer game than projected - but the average margin of victory is still 12.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
And here's the scoring probability graph for Mississippi and Tulane. Will the Kiffin abandonment have an effect and close the gap for the Green Wave? Based on season data, Miss. wins 75.6% of simulated matchups.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
December 20, 2025 at 7:21 PM
And here's the scoring probability graph for Mississippi and Tulane. Will the Kiffin abandonment have an effect and close the gap for the Green Wave? Based on season data, Miss. wins 75.6% of simulated matchups.
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
#cfb #cfbsky #cfbplayoff
Here's the scoring probability for Miami and Texas A&M. (We're looking at the lower side of the range today, apparently)
The Hurricanes won 66% of 500 simulations.
The Hurricanes won 66% of 500 simulations.
December 20, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Here's the scoring probability for Miami and Texas A&M. (We're looking at the lower side of the range today, apparently)
The Hurricanes won 66% of 500 simulations.
The Hurricanes won 66% of 500 simulations.
When the coaching staff and majority roster remain intact, the simulator performs best. Starting 1 for 1 in this year's playoff after predicting every outcome last year. It's probably due for a loss!
#cfb #cfbplayoff #cfbsky
#cfb #cfbplayoff #cfbsky
It's the first game of the #CFBPlayoff pageant tonight. While we don't have all the best *or* most deserving teams in the field, we still have some good games. Alabama VS Oklahoma is the 2nd closest matchup, with Crimson Tide 54.8% likely to win.
#cfb #cfbsky
#cfb #cfbsky
December 20, 2025 at 7:08 AM
When the coaching staff and majority roster remain intact, the simulator performs best. Starting 1 for 1 in this year's playoff after predicting every outcome last year. It's probably due for a loss!
#cfb #cfbplayoff #cfbsky
#cfb #cfbplayoff #cfbsky
It's the first game of the #CFBPlayoff pageant tonight. While we don't have all the best *or* most deserving teams in the field, we still have some good games. Alabama VS Oklahoma is the 2nd closest matchup, with Crimson Tide 54.8% likely to win.
#cfb #cfbsky
#cfb #cfbsky
December 19, 2025 at 10:11 PM
It's the first game of the #CFBPlayoff pageant tonight. While we don't have all the best *or* most deserving teams in the field, we still have some good games. Alabama VS Oklahoma is the 2nd closest matchup, with Crimson Tide 54.8% likely to win.
#cfb #cfbsky
#cfb #cfbsky
Sticking at 41, Western Michigan has allowed the simulator's range prediction to remain perfect.
Even though WMU was projected to win this, the margin is easily this bowl season's biggest upset yet.
If Broncos hit 50, they'll be the first bowl team in my 4 years of doing this to surpass their curve entirely.
If Broncos hit 50, they'll be the first bowl team in my 4 years of doing this to surpass their curve entirely.
December 19, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Sticking at 41, Western Michigan has allowed the simulator's range prediction to remain perfect.
Tonight's Xbox Bowl might not be the Bahamas, but it's providing a very close matchup. Here are scoring probabilities for Arkansas St and Missouri St.
I ran 500 sims twice and both times it came out a perfect 250/250 split. I've never seen the simulator repeat a push until now.
#cfb #cfbsky
I ran 500 sims twice and both times it came out a perfect 250/250 split. I've never seen the simulator repeat a push until now.
#cfb #cfbsky
December 19, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Tecmo Bowl was bread. This was butter. I don't need any other football games.
Can we just get NFL Blitz back, please?
These games were simplistic, arcade fun and Madden could NEVER reach the hype of what Blitz brought to the table.
These games were simplistic, arcade fun and Madden could NEVER reach the hype of what Blitz brought to the table.
a ravens football game is being played on a nintendo 64 system
ALT: a ravens football game is being played on a nintendo 64 system
media.tenor.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Tecmo Bowl was bread. This was butter. I don't need any other football games.
