Michal Onderco
@profonderco.bsky.social
730 followers 580 following 56 posts
Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, affiliated with Charles University in Prague. VU Amsterdam, EUI, CISAC, WIAS-alum. Nuclear weapons | foreign policy | CEE
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Reposted by Michal Onderco
Reposted by Michal Onderco
stevenvdwalle.bsky.social
In een ander DG zit ik intussen bijna 2 jaar te wachten op de finale goedkeuring van een rapport (nota bene over de economische kosten van slecht werkende overheidsdiensten).
profonderco.bsky.social
Good morning from Helsinki, where I am to attend a workshop at @fiia.fi and then the @helsinkisecurityforum.fi . If you want to catch a coffee, shoot me a message.
profonderco.bsky.social
Congrats to @lydiawachs.bsky.social on this well-deserved award! It’s a great piece that will shape how we think about Russian nuclear doctrine for a long time! Very glad to have it in the SI edited jointly with @tobiasbunde.bsky.social
Reposted by Michal Onderco
raffaelemstr.bsky.social
Tomorrow (Thu 4 Sept, 11:00–12:45), I’ll be chairing with @albertomiraglia.bsky.social our panel 7.20 “Far-Right Emergence: Yet Another Challenge in the Midst of the Crisis of Multilateralism,” with exciting papers kindly discussed by @profonderco.bsky.social
profonderco.bsky.social
Wow, this looks super cool!
mhamjediers.bsky.social
In the context of debates on military capacities, this small research note uses the exact date of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an unexpected event during a survey to corroborate that willingness to fight rises with proximity to conflict (cf. doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.12)

Any feedback is welcome!
profonderco.bsky.social
Weirdly enough, I had a similar experience this summer. 2/3 of the references were made up. I didn’t provide a substantive review, just flagged these references. The piece got rejected. Based on dinner conversations with colleagues, it’s becoming very common.
kristianulrichsen.bsky.social
I'm peer reviewing a manuscript for a reputable publisher and came across fake references which must be AI-generated - including to an article attributed to me which sounds fascinating but which I never wrote.
Reposted by Michal Onderco
msenn.bsky.social
"Österreichs Neutralität" ist ab sofort im #openaccess Format frei verfügbar: www.transcript-verlag.de/media/pdf/78...

Details zu den 23 Beiträgen des Buches, Fragen & Antworten zur #Neutralität und weiterführende Informationen gibt es unter www.neutralitaet.info
profonderco.bsky.social
My book has a cover! "Europe's Nuclear Umbrella" coming out in February 2026. Still time to preorder on @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org www.cambridge.org/de/universit...
Reposted by Michal Onderco
🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
Reposted by Michal Onderco
herzogsm.bsky.social
Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine.

We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Michal Onderco
profsaunders.bsky.social
Good lord.
thebulwark.com
Trump: “It looks like it’s about $3.1 billion…”

Powell: “I’m not aware of that.”

Trump: “It just came out.”

Powell: “You are including the Martin renovation. You just added in a third building.”

Trump: “It’s a building that's being built.”

Powell: “No, it was built five years ago.”
profonderco.bsky.social
Pasta al limone dove?
alexandreafonso.bsky.social
6. Italian pasta dishes, ranked:
1. Burro e salvia
2. Ragú
3. Carbonara
4. Aglio olio peperoncino
5. Cacio e pepe
profonderco.bsky.social
This work would never be possible without the funding from the Stanton Foundation, as well as @prcp.cuni.cz . I am enormously grateful also to @claudmajor.bsky.social , Gary Marks @eui-schuman.bsky.social , @profsaunders.bsky.social , Vipin Narang and Harald Muller @prif.org for their endorsements!
profonderco.bsky.social
My book "Europe's Nuclear Umbrella" is now ready to pre-order, coming out February 2026 with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org ! It explains how European policy-makers navigated the balance between the public asking for disarmament and world growing more dangerous. www.cambridge.org/9781009698672 (1/2)
Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment
www.cambridge.org
profonderco.bsky.social
Once chatted with a someone who invests in Dutch tomato production. Asked why the Dutch tomatoes taste so bland. The answer was - as opposed to weight, color, vitamin or nutrient content, taste cannot be quantifiably measured. So it makes no sense to target it as a metric
Reposted by Michal Onderco
ejisbisa.bsky.social
"Fighting for their country: How proximate conflict shapes citizens’ attitudes" from @alexsorg.bsky.social, @wolfgangwagner.bsky.social, and @profonderco.bsky.social.

📖 Read in full here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Michal Onderco
nvondarza.bsky.social
Always wondered when Trump would
a) start threatening individual EU countries with tariffs
b) start mxing the debates on security gurantuees and trade pressure

Guess the answer is now:
Reposted by Michal Onderco
lydiawachs.bsky.social
Looking forward to this👇
profonderco.bsky.social
Incredibly happy to be in the summery Thessaloniki for the @eissnetwork.bsky.social Annual Conference! Join us for the incredibly topical roundtable on nuclear coercion tomorrow (incl @sannecjv.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @lydiawachs.bsky.social and Kristin Ven Bruusgaard) … (1/2)
profonderco.bsky.social
… or on Friday for a panel on defense cooperation! Or just stop by and say hello!
profonderco.bsky.social
Incredibly happy to be in the summery Thessaloniki for the @eissnetwork.bsky.social Annual Conference! Join us for the incredibly topical roundtable on nuclear coercion tomorrow (incl @sannecjv.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @lydiawachs.bsky.social and Kristin Ven Bruusgaard) … (1/2)
Reposted by Michal Onderco
shashj.bsky.social
"Israel has not yet confirmed the cease-fire, and within three hours of Mr. Trump’s announcement, there were fresh attacks from Israel against Iran, raising questions about whether all parties had agreed to it." www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/w...
Trump’s Cease-Fire Announcement Catches His Own Top Officials by Surprise
www.nytimes.com