The Rini
rinimetrics.bsky.social
The Rini
@rinimetrics.bsky.social
Econometric model to predict the daily performance of stock market indices and assets.
OMXS30 for now, Stockholm.
Not investment advice.
#stockmarket
Pinned
IMHO, yesterday's price action is attributed to the US administration stating that CPI and unemployment rate will NOT be released at all.

This created uncertainty and market participants hate uncertainty.

#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
If the dominant move is a bull today, it should start falling tomorrow (we need to see the Rini signal as well, of course, to verify).

It also depends on US data releases after so many days. There could be a <0 shock there.

Swedish news is good, though.
November 14, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Thursday 13.11.25.

OMXS30 opened at a new ATH.

We went long below that and sold at the current max.

Although the daily RSI allows it, it would be rare to see the same price pattern for a 3rd day in a row.

#data #econometrics #economy #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 13, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Last night downloaded weekly data for Spot Silver and discovered a pattern for weekly RSI never encountered before since 2004.

Were it following history, it should be falling this week but instead it's increasing.

Just fyi.
Silver:

The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!

This is a 90% prediction success.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 13, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Constitutes a >0 shock.

Attention is needed in the imminent release of US data.

The White House announced some data may never be released!!!

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 13, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Today OMXS30 opened at a new ATH.

It also reached a new intraday ATH.

We went long and sold with a profit.

It should finish above the opening price in the absence of a <0 shock.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 13, 2025 at 6:25 AM
Reposted by The Rini
House to vote on bill to end shutdown around 7 p.m. ET Wednesday, Rep. Scalise says
House to vote on bill to end shutdown around 7 p.m. ET Wednesday, Rep. Scalise says
The House will vote early Wednesday evening to end the longest government shutdown in history, the majority leader said.
cnb.cx
November 12, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Opinion:

Jack Dorsey is more of an economist than most economists we know (we are econometricians).

www.tradingview.com/news/cointel...
Jack Dorsey’s Square has just opened up 4M merchants to Bitcoin
Payment processor Square has launched its Bitcoin payment feature for sellers, allowing them to opt in and accept Bitcoin (BTC) at checkout through its point-of-sale system.Jack Dorsey, co-founder of ...
www.tradingview.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Today OMXS30 opened at a new ATH.

It also reached a new intraday ATH.

We went long and sold with a profit.

It should finish above the opening price in the absence of a <0 shock.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 12, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Have recovered all losses - doable task.

Yesterday, Tuesday, the Rini produced a bull (M13 valid and Type IV).

We will categorize Monday's signal as a bull, too, from now on (M13 valid, >0 shock).

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
We recovered half of Friday's loss.

Monday 10.11.25.

The baseline Rini signal is bearish as the opening price is too high reflecting reaction to US gov. shutdown coming to an end.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 12, 2025 at 11:49 AM
The newer M13 condition (bull again) switched on 21 times so far in 2025, 17 of which were correct, i.e. 81% prediction success.

Two wrong signals can be avoided.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Silver:

The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!

This is a 90% prediction success.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 12, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Silver:

The M3 condition that locates minima and signifies a bull switched on 10 times so far in 2025, nine of which were correct!

This is a 90% prediction success.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 11, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Confession.

The one variable that does not matter for daily close/open prices and the range is volume.

Plausible explanations:

1. Indeed, it does not matter for the daily measures (but perhaps matters for intraday moves, lower data than daily).

2. The functions of volume we tried do not matter.
November 10, 2025 at 10:34 AM
We recovered half of Friday's loss.

Monday 10.11.25.

The baseline Rini signal is bearish as the opening price is too high reflecting reaction to US gov. shutdown coming to an end.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Trading an econometric model under construction is difficult because the information displayed changes often so that the trader has to adapt again and again to new Rini trading rules.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
It is a bear and we understood why:

When OMXS30 is in what we call a "perfect bullish alignment" (PBUA), backtesting dictates which types of investors should be considered.

Why?

Becasue Type I

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
Friday 07.11.25.

Looks like a bull Horst trade in the absence of a <0 shock:

Opens + and closes even higher than the opening price.

We will re-evaluate close to the opening.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 7, 2025 at 5:31 PM
It is a bear and we understood why:

When OMXS30 is in what we call a "perfect bullish alignment" (PBUA), backtesting dictates which types of investors should be considered.

Why?

Becasue Type I

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
Friday 07.11.25.

Looks like a bull Horst trade in the absence of a <0 shock:

Opens + and closes even higher than the opening price.

We will re-evaluate close to the opening.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Friday 07.11.25.

Looks like a bull Horst trade in the absence of a <0 shock:

Opens + and closes even higher than the opening price.

We will re-evaluate close to the opening.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 7, 2025 at 7:15 AM
It is correct only because there was a <0 shock from the US (private job data - no government data due to shutdown).

Otherwise this was a bullish day (for Bitcoin and US indices as well).

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
Thursday 06.11.25.

The Rini baseline signal is weak, leaning bearish.

We avoid trading weak signals as a principle as they imply the index is susceptible to shocks and easily flips direction.

So far it looks bullish.

If it's wrong, then it's wrong.

The model will be wrong as well.
November 6, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Thursday 06.11.25.

The Rini baseline signal is weak, leaning bearish.

We avoid trading weak signals as a principle as they imply the index is susceptible to shocks and easily flips direction.

So far it looks bullish.

If it's wrong, then it's wrong.

The model will be wrong as well.
November 6, 2025 at 1:31 PM
It was correct!

The Rini M3 for Ethereum does not have the same predictive success as for Bitcoin.

BUT we can trade the Bitcoin M3 (bull) for Ethereum as well because this period they move together.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
Sold with about 3% return.

We will see tomorrow if it remains a bull, i.e. if the M3 is correct.

#bitcoin
The M3 condition has switched on for Bitcoin today (the Rini signals are valid for a single trading day).

We opened a small long position this morning.

We will adjust accordingly if needed.

If not today, then soon the M3 will be correct.
November 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Indeed a strong bull.

Another correct Rini prediction.

Mistake not to trade this one.

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
The Swedish central bank paused as expected:

Rates will remain there for a while.

The Rini signal is a bull but we prefer to stay out due to uncertainty from the US.
November 5, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Sold with about 3% return.

We will see tomorrow if it remains a bull, i.e. if the M3 is correct.

#bitcoin
The M3 condition has switched on for Bitcoin today (the Rini signals are valid for a single trading day).

We opened a small long position this morning.

We will adjust accordingly if needed.

If not today, then soon the M3 will be correct.
November 5, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Gold at 3800 USD would be an entry point.

Not saying it will reach that price - just that we would buy there.

Just an opinion.
November 5, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The M3 condition has switched on for Bitcoin today (the Rini signals are valid for a single trading day).

We opened a small long position this morning.

We will adjust accordingly if needed.

If not today, then soon the M3 will be correct.
November 5, 2025 at 11:01 AM
The Swedish central bank paused as expected:

Rates will remain there for a while.

The Rini signal is a bull but we prefer to stay out due to uncertainty from the US.
November 5, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Reached 2734.24.
Pure discussion - not trading.

According to the Rini intervals it is less likely the index reaches 2737.

Looks confined around -1% and downwards.

The Rini absolute min is at 2700 (-2%).

#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing $VIX #trading
November 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM