The Rini
@rinimetrics.bsky.social
Econometric model to predict the daily performance of stock market indices and assets.
OMXS30 for now, Stockholm.
Not investment advice.
#stockmarket
OMXS30 for now, Stockholm.
Not investment advice.
#stockmarket
Look how nicely the daily OMXS30 RSI bounced off the red line, 50, from September onwards, i.e. was serving as support.
We have lost that.
Also notice the lower highs and lower lows.
We have lost that.
Also notice the lower highs and lower lows.
November 19, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Look how nicely the daily OMXS30 RSI bounced off the red line, 50, from September onwards, i.e. was serving as support.
We have lost that.
Also notice the lower highs and lower lows.
We have lost that.
Also notice the lower highs and lower lows.
Updated the Table.
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
November 17, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Updated the Table.
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Updated the Rini performance for the last months.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
September 9, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Updated the Rini performance for the last months.
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
#data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
The Rini M3 condition (locates minima) from January to April 2025.
It predicted the early-April bottom.
Does not discern between local or global min atm.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
It predicted the early-April bottom.
Does not discern between local or global min atm.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
May 26, 2025 at 7:13 PM
M3 switched on five times in April:
The four are visible, the 5th refers to March 31st that predicted a bull for April 1st.
M3 on 10apr2025 is a known false from backtesting.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky
The four are visible, the 5th refers to March 31st that predicted a bull for April 1st.
M3 on 10apr2025 is a known false from backtesting.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky
May 6, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The Rini M3 condition locates minima and signifies a bullish signal.
It switched on six times in Q1 2025: Twice each month.
It was wrong once (known "- shock").
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
It switched on six times in Q1 2025: Twice each month.
It was wrong once (known "- shock").
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
April 22, 2025 at 2:43 PM
The OMXS30 daily RSI is below 30 since Monday 31.03.
It was 16 on Friday, 04.04.
Thus, the RSI alone is not enough to signify oversold situations.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
It was 16 on Friday, 04.04.
Thus, the RSI alone is not enough to signify oversold situations.
#trading #tradewar #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #tariffs #economy $VIX #econsky #FinSky #finance
April 6, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Screenshot from Atlanta's Fed on Twitter (we can't find them on Bluesky).
February 28, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Screenshot from Atlanta's Fed on Twitter (we can't find them on Bluesky).
Self-explanatory graph.
In Stata, you can calculate RSI with command
tftools rsi
#trading #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX #EconSky #FinSky
In Stata, you can calculate RSI with command
tftools rsi
#trading #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX #EconSky #FinSky
January 26, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Self-explanatory graph.
In Stata, you can calculate RSI with command
tftools rsi
#trading #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX #EconSky #FinSky
In Stata, you can calculate RSI with command
tftools rsi
#trading #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX #EconSky #FinSky
OMXS30 closing prices in 2024.
Notable negative shocks in August and September with US origin.
Minimum on 17.01 (2297.85).
Maximum on 26.09 (2642.43).
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy
Notable negative shocks in August and September with US origin.
Minimum on 17.01 (2297.85).
Maximum on 26.09 (2642.43).
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy
January 13, 2025 at 12:48 PM
OMXS30 closing prices in 2024.
Notable negative shocks in August and September with US origin.
Minimum on 17.01 (2297.85).
Maximum on 26.09 (2642.43).
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy
Notable negative shocks in August and September with US origin.
Minimum on 17.01 (2297.85).
Maximum on 26.09 (2642.43).
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy
Daily RSI for 2024, OMXS30.
Not a bad strategy to sell when it approached 70 and buy when it approached 40.
Does not mean it will repeat in 2025.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Not a bad strategy to sell when it approached 70 and buy when it approached 40.
Does not mean it will repeat in 2025.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
January 13, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Daily RSI for 2024, OMXS30.
Not a bad strategy to sell when it approached 70 and buy when it approached 40.
Does not mean it will repeat in 2025.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Not a bad strategy to sell when it approached 70 and buy when it approached 40.
Does not mean it will repeat in 2025.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Updated the graph to include 2024.
The prediction based on simple patterns was correct as OMXS30 finished the year with a positive return, namely 3.63%.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
The prediction based on simple patterns was correct as OMXS30 finished the year with a positive return, namely 3.63%.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Updated the graph to include 2024.
The prediction based on simple patterns was correct as OMXS30 finished the year with a positive return, namely 3.63%.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
The prediction based on simple patterns was correct as OMXS30 finished the year with a positive return, namely 3.63%.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Created this graph on 31.12.23.
A year ago we predicted that OMXS30 would finish 2024 with a positive return, not knowing if it would be higher or lower than 2023.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Fed
A year ago we predicted that OMXS30 would finish 2024 with a positive return, not knowing if it would be higher or lower than 2023.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Fed
December 23, 2024 at 5:07 PM
Created this graph on 31.12.23.
A year ago we predicted that OMXS30 would finish 2024 with a positive return, not knowing if it would be higher or lower than 2023.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Fed
A year ago we predicted that OMXS30 would finish 2024 with a positive return, not knowing if it would be higher or lower than 2023.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Fed
We could not locate a shock (e.g. economic data or geopolitics).
But we noticed this - look at the graph.
OMXS30 followed Dow Jones, the latter declining for nine(!) consecutive days.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed
But we noticed this - look at the graph.
OMXS30 followed Dow Jones, the latter declining for nine(!) consecutive days.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed
December 18, 2024 at 9:39 AM
We could not locate a shock (e.g. economic data or geopolitics).
But we noticed this - look at the graph.
OMXS30 followed Dow Jones, the latter declining for nine(!) consecutive days.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed
But we noticed this - look at the graph.
OMXS30 followed Dow Jones, the latter declining for nine(!) consecutive days.
#trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed
Still, this warns of an imminent local or global minimum in OMXS30.
The minimum realized the next day, 20.11, with closing price 2484.49.
The latter was higher than the September minimum of 2480.99 (06.09).
Look a the graph.
The minimum realized the next day, 20.11, with closing price 2484.49.
The latter was higher than the September minimum of 2480.99 (06.09).
Look a the graph.
December 6, 2024 at 9:07 AM
Still, this warns of an imminent local or global minimum in OMXS30.
The minimum realized the next day, 20.11, with closing price 2484.49.
The latter was higher than the September minimum of 2480.99 (06.09).
Look a the graph.
The minimum realized the next day, 20.11, with closing price 2484.49.
The latter was higher than the September minimum of 2480.99 (06.09).
Look a the graph.