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Reposted by Romeo Marcantuoni

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 1d

My main problem with this is not so much the dominance of quantitative methods in “top-20” journals but rather the dominance of the exclusive use of quantitative methods — in many cases causality could and should have been established by a (nested) qualitative study. *

Alexia Katsanidou @alexiakatsanidou.bsky.social · 1d

Great paper on the state of political science osf.io/preprints/os... by @guygrossman.bsky.social et. al. We have become more diverse, more quantitative, and more collaborative.

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Reposted by Romeo Marcantuoni

Alexia Katsanidou @alexiakatsanidou.bsky.social · 1d

Great paper on the state of political science osf.io/preprints/os... by @guygrossman.bsky.social et. al. We have become more diverse, more quantitative, and more collaborative.

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Reposted by Romeo Marcantuoni

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

Worth noting Prof. Curtis can still fill a room at LDP headquarters when he comes to Japan. He's well-connected in the party and has lots of friends in senior leadership, so I doubt he says any of this lightly or casually.

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 1d

It’s kind of a fact of life that the LDP will collapse. Nothing lasts forever, and they have been on a downward slope in resources, members, and votes since the 70s.

Emily @suika.bsky.social · 2d

"[Gerald Curtis, professor emeritus of political science at Columbia University] said Takaichi's victory is 'going to hasten the decline and the eventual collapse of the LDP.'"

"Curtis does not expect much to be accomplished by Takaichi as prime minister."

Gerald Curtis: Takaichi victory hastens LDP's collapse; 'not if, when'

Veteran Japan watcher worried about what comes after the 'most boring election'

asia.nikkei.com

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Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 2d

Matteo Renzi 🇮🇹, Emmanuel Macron 🇫🇷 & Pieter Omtzigt 🇳🇱were all hailed as democratic saviors who would deliver a “post-populist” politics. In different ways, all three have done incredible damage to the politics in their countries, leaving the “populists” (= far right) even more entrenched.

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 2d

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 2d

I bought some climbing shoes that are marketed as good at exactly that verb so idk

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 3d

In many ways I consider myself to be rather a fan of inefficiencies

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 3d

I agree with a lot he says in this speech, but I doubt I agree with his definition of “efficiency” which seems more or less aimed at (what I would argue are) complementary liberal institutions

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 3d

My subway take: AI will actually be good because it’ll make the internet so useless that we will have to reset our relationship to it

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Reposted by Romeo Marcantuoni

Rob Fahey @robfahey.net · 4d

A meme format from Arrested Development. Two characters are speaking; one asks the other, "how about we try to win back votes from a populist right-wing party by publicly legitimising and agreeing with their agenda?" The other responds, "well, did it work for those people?" The first character replies, "No, it never does, I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but... but it might work for us."

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

Do they not have political scientists consulting at LDP HQ Everything we know about trying to win back votes from anti-establishment far-right parties says that you can't do it unless you turn them into a pariah (make explicit that coalition/cooperation with Sanseito is against the LDP's values)

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

The Takaichi win in specific but also the whole LDP presidential election in general is likely to put wind in the sails of Sanseitō, which has seen its economic and law-and-order messaging on immigration become a focal point. We can expect more parroting ultimately benefiting the far right

How established parties reduce other parties’ electoral support: the strategy of parroting the pariah

In every democracy, established political parties are challenged by other parties. Established parties react in various ways to other parties’ presence. A key hypothesis in the relevant literature ...

www.tandfonline.com

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

We understood most of the other variables at play here, but perhaps we underestimated the gender dynamics in the new party landscape that's unfolding.

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

The first post was August. This is September. Note as well the higher share of female undecideds.

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

If that is in part the play here, then that raises questions about just how conservative she can be.

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 4d

I wonder if to an extent the growing divide in men and women votes played into the surprise Takaichi win. In a recent NHK poll, more women showed support for the LDP than men, with men showing vastly more support for the right wing parties than women.

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Rob Fahey @robfahey.net · 4d

Unless Takaichi as LDP leader can show a side of herself that's never been apparent in her career to date, this is going to be a disaster. Lots of very glum faces among the senior LDP faces up on stage right now; they no doubt suspect that the turkeys just voted for Christmas.

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Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 7d

As long as the far right shapes public opinion, and mainstream parties follow public opinion, the far right dominates politics, whether in government or not.

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 7d

I was wondering who wrote this and was not disappointed to discover Naito-san, who apparently has an unlimited word count too.

The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 7d

Commentary: As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party shifts left, influenced by liberal powerbrokers, its conservative wing weakens, internal rifts widen and weak leadership contenders risk fracturing the party.

Is this the LDP’s last presidential election?

The five LDP presidential candidates — three conservatives and two liberals — are competing to offer the most uninspiring platform.

ebx.sh

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 12d

LDP leadership campaign 2025 mascot

a cartoon drawing of a seal laying on top of an egg

ALT: a cartoon drawing of a seal laying on top of an egg

media.tenor.com

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 14d

The article @robfahey.net and I wrote on Sanseito is finally out (open access). We describe the party’s conspiracy worldview and how it shapes its policies and organizational features. I may do a thread to include the work I have done since finalizing the draft.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Fighting the Cabal from the Diet: Sanseitō and the Role of Conspiracy as Political Ideology | Asia-Pacific Journal | Cambridge Core

Fighting the Cabal from the Diet: Sanseitō and the Role of Conspiracy as Political Ideology - Volume 23

www.cambridge.org

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austin_walker @austinwalker.bsky.social · 13d

I mostly agree with this, but more so: Any time spent on saying "they have incoherent politics" is probably better spent saying "what ideology, which policies, what social strategys have produced this violent nihilism, and what analogs do they have historically?"

〽️ax krieger does the damn thing @maxkriegervg.bsky.social · 13d

since a lot of ppl are discussing the ICE camp shooter's apparent lack of ideology, i would like to posit that online irony blackpill is absolutely an ideology with coherent tenets - the reason it appears incoherent is because this an ideology primarily defined by faithlessness, negative space

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Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 13d

As a Belgian, I'm shocked that this is news to me.

BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 13d

the "Wire of Death" - an electric fence set up to prevent Belgians from fleeing into the neutral Netherlands - was likely responsible for roughly 20 times more deaths between 1915 and 1918 than the Berlin Wall was between 1961 and 1989.

BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 13d

“While Allied propaganda exaggerated it, the Germans did in fact do many war crimes in Belgium in WW1 and even more war crimes on the Eastern Front, dwarfed as they eventually would be by their atrocities in WW2”

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Reposted by Romeo Marcantuoni

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 14d

Strongly recommend 👇

Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · 14d

The article @robfahey.net and I wrote on Sanseito is finally out (open access). We describe the party’s conspiracy worldview and how it shapes its policies and organizational features. I may do a thread to include the work I have done since finalizing the draft.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Fighting the Cabal from the Diet: Sanseitō and the Role of Conspiracy as Political Ideology | Asia-Pacific Journal | Cambridge Core

Fighting the Cabal from the Diet: Sanseitō and the Role of Conspiracy as Political Ideology - Volume 23

www.cambridge.org

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