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sardell.bsky.social
Jason Sardell
@sardell.bsky.social
600 followers 64 following 59 posts
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sardell.bsky.social
Never a bad time to remember some guys!
9 gold standard Guys: Morgan Burkhart, Roberto Petagine, Morgan Ensberg, Erubiel Durazo, Donnie Sadler, Izzy Alcántara, El Guapo, Unsung Hero of 2004 Curt Leskanic, and John ‘Wayback’ Wasdin
September 2, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
sammillerbb.bsky.social
Errors Are Hits Now pebblehunting.substack.com/p/errors-are...
Errors Are Hits Now
Is the "E" becoming passé?
pebblehunting.substack.com
January 31, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
fangraphs.com
Cooperstown Notebook: The 2025 Progress Report, Part II blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-...
Cooperstown Notebook: The 2025 Progress Report, Part II
Checking in on the infielders who are — or perhaps aren’t — building cases for the Hall of Fame.
blogs.fangraphs.com
August 26, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
dszymborski.fangraphs.com
Next year's Hall of Fame vote will be interesting. 394 ballots this year, but 61 writers -- an especially large influx -- are currently on track to get ballots after this season. With some attrition, as many as one-in-six voters could be first time voters.
March 1, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
We just had a Hall of Fame election for the ages.

I wrote about it!

Here are 5 Things We Learned

www.nytimes.com/athletic/607...
Five things we learned from the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame election
Takeaways from an election in which Ichiro, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner punched their tickets to Cooperstown.
www.nytimes.com
January 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jayjaffe.bsky.social
new @fangraphs.com my first look at this year's Hall of Fame election results. The lack of unanimity for Ichiro is stupid, but don't lose sight of the opportunity to celebrate his great and unique career, or those of Sabathia and Wagner! Much more to come in my candidate-by-candidate breakdown...
January 22, 2025 at 3:19 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Congratulations to Billy Wagner! Long-time coming and well deserved. When you track someone for 10 years, it's hard not to get invested in their candidacy!
notmrtibbs.com Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · Jan 21
Billy Wagner receiving The Call, from @ortizkicks.bsky.social: x.com/OrtizKicks/s...
January 21, 2025 at 11:55 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Final Baseball Hall of Fame projections for the Class of 2025, with 213 BBWAA ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. I'm confident that it will include Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner, but we'll have to wait to see if Carlos Beltrán joins them. Currently giving him a 1-in-3 shot.
January 21, 2025 at 10:38 PM
sardell.bsky.social
A bunch of new public ballots came in this morning and Carlos Beltrán has picked up more ground. Latest projections with 206 votes in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker give him a median of 74.1% (95% confidence interval = 70.6%-77.7%) and he's being elected 30% of the time. Going to be a race to the finish!
January 21, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
Happy Hall of Fame election day from frosty Cooperstown.

Join me, @Joelsherman1 @jonmorosi and our point guard, Brian Kenny, on @MLBNetwork at 2et! Then stay for the announcement at 6 et.

And ICYMI, here's my ballot - and the column explaining it.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/606...
Stark: My 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot — the 10 players I voted for, and why
I filled up all 10 slots on my Hall of Fame ballot this year. This is that column where I let you in on which 10 boxes I checked.
www.nytimes.com
January 21, 2025 at 2:29 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Updated Hall of Fame projections with less than 24 hours to go and 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Beltrán's likelihood of being elected has slipped in the past 24 hours but he could still join Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner in Cooperstown if he slightly overperforms current trends
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 96% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 92% 88% - 95% 100% 0% Billy Wagner 82% 79% - 85% 100% 0% Carlos Beltrán 73% 69% - 77% 16% 0% Andruw Jones 68% 65% - 72% 0% 0% Chase Utley 42% 38% - 46% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 35% - 38% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 33% 31% - 35% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 24% - 30% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 24% 20% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 18% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 21% 18% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 18% 14% - 21% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 14% 11% - 18% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 13% 11% - 16% 0% 0% David Wright 10% 8% - 13% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 9% 8% - 12% 0% 0% Ian Kinsler 4% 2% - 7% 0% 83% Russell Martin 3% 2% - 6% 0% 90% Torii Hunter 3% 2% - 6% 0% 92% Brian McCann 3% 2% - 6% 0% 93%
January 21, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
Re: Beltrán, now @ 80.6%. We've never had a candidate >=80% in the Tracker at the results announcement fail to be elected. However:
2024 Mauer - 83.4% to 76.1% (7.3% ⬇)
2020 Walker - 83.2% to 76.6% (6.6% ⬇)
2022 Ortiz - 83.4% to 77.9% (5.5% ⬇)
And:
2023 Helton - 78.6% to 72.2% (6.4% ⬇, not elected)
January 20, 2025 at 12:31 AM
sardell.bsky.social
I don't have time to post full Hall of Fame projections tonight, but Carlos Beltrán median is now 73% (95% confidence interval = 69%-78%) and he's reaching the 75% election cutoff in 24% of my model's simulations.

Always fun to have an element of real suspense headed into the election reveal!
January 19, 2025 at 11:40 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Great article by Theo about the trickiest aspect of my Hall of Fame projections. I'll add one thing: 10 private voters (14% of total) are affiliated with Elias Sports Bureau and we know nothing about their voting history. If they coordinate and vote as a bloc, that would majorly impact private %s.
January 18, 2025 at 11:46 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Latest Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 152 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Carlos Beltrán's chances of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner have increased since last week, but his current add/drop trends still leave him on pace to finish in the low 70s.
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 96% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 90% 86% - 94% 100% 0% Billy Wagner 82% 79% - 85% >99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 73% 68% - 78% 21% 0% Andruw Jones 70% 65% - 74% 0.8% 0% Chase Utley 42% 37% - 48% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 34% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 33% 31% - 35% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 23% - 31% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 23% 18% - 28% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 20% 17% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 19% 16% - 23% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 19% 15% - 23% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 14% 11% - 18% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 8% - 16% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0% David Wright 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0% Russell Martin 4% 2% - 8% 0% 71% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 8% 0% 76% Ian Kinsler 3% 1% - 7% 0% 85% Torii Hunter 2% 0.5% - 5% 0% 97%
January 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
sardell.bsky.social
With 119 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that the BBWAA will elect 3 players to the Baseball Hall of Fame on January 21. But Carlos Beltrán still has a chance of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner. My latest projections:
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 95% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 88% 82% - 93% >99.9% 0% Billy Wagner 83% 79% - 87% >99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 72% 67% - 77% 13% 0% Andruw Jones 69% 64% - 74% 1% 0% Chase Utley 41% 36% - 48% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 33% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32% 20% - 36% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 22% - 33% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 22% 16% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 17% - 26% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 18% 15% - 23% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 18% 14% - 21% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 14% 11% - 19% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 7% - 18% 0% 0.01% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0.01% David Wright 10% 7% - 14% 0% 0.05% Russell Martin 4.6% 2% - 10% 0% 58% Ian Kinsler 4% 1% - 9% 0% 70% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 9% 0% 73% Torii Hunter 2% 0.3% - 5% 0% 96%
January 9, 2025 at 12:21 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Here are my first set of projections for the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame election, based on add/drop trends for the 92 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Looking likely that we'll have a three-person BBWAA class this year, but Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones also have an outside shot.
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 90% - 100% 100% 100% CC Sabathia 89% 80% - 95% 99.9% 0% Billy Wagner 83% 79% - 88% 99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 72% 67% - 79% 22% 0% Andruw Jones 70% 64% - 76% 6% 0% Chase Utley 39% 32% - 47% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 33% - 41% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32% 29% - 37% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 21% - 34% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 23% 15% - 32% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 17% - 28% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 19% 15% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 17% 14% - 23% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 13% 10% - 20% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 6% - 21% 0% 0.4% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 7% - 15% 0% 0.05% David Wright 10% 6% - 17% 0% 0.2% Russell Martin 5.4% 2% - 15% 0% 43% Ian Kinsler 4.9% 2% - 14% 0% 50% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 14% 0% 58% Torii Hunter 2% 0.4% - 7% 0% 92%
January 2, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
passonjim.bsky.social
Most Stolen Bases since Rickey Henderson stole #939 on May 1st, 1991 to break Lou Brock’s record:

622 - Kenny Lofton
614 - Juan Pierre
517 - José Reyes
509 - Ichiro Suzuki
480 - Carl Crawford
470 - Jimmy Rollins
467 - RICKEY HENDERSON
465 - Eric Young Sr.
December 21, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jayjaffe.bsky.social
new @fangraphs.com: Russell Martin's elite pitch-framing puts him on par not only with the more heralded catchers of the era, but among the most valuable players (some actual MVP winners) for the 2006-16 span. The public didn't appreciate him the way the industry did, but he's Hallworthy.
December 18, 2024 at 5:55 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Too early for projections, but CC Sabathia's name has been checked 14 times on the 15 public ballots from returning voters. Joe Mauer went 9/15 with the same crowd last year. Bodes well for CC's chances of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer!
December 13, 2024 at 11:57 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
My latest column:

Five things to watch on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, including:

How can Ichiro not be unanimous?

www.nytimes.com/athletic/592...
Five things to watch on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: How can Ichiro not be unanimous?
Will Ichiro be the first position player unanimously elected? Can Billy Wagner close it out? How will a special class of first-timers fare?
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2024 at 1:08 AM
sardell.bsky.social
This was a really fun conversation with @benlindbergh.bsky.social and @megrowler.bsky.social about Hall of Fame projections and related topics. Never been on a podcast before and I couldn't ask for two better hosts! blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-...
January 26, 2024 at 11:20 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Bit silly to post Hall of Fame projections when we'll find out the results in an hour, but here are mine with 217 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's tracker. Billy Wagner's flip rate is slightly off the pace that he needs for election, but still lots of scenarios in which he reaches 75%.
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98.7% 97% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 82.6% 79% - 86% > 99.9% 0% Todd Helton 77.1% 74% - 80% 93% 0% Billy Wagner 74.0% 71% - 77% 27% 0% Gary Sheffield 67.2% 64% - 71% 0% 0% Andruw Jones 62.0% 60% - 65% 0% 0% Carlos Beltrán 61.5% 58% - 65% 0% 0% Chase Utley 37.2% 33% - 42% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 35.4% 33% - 38% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32.0% 30% - 35% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 16.4% 13% - 20% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 15.9% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 15.1% 14% - 17% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 8.1% 7% - 10% 0% 0.02% Mark Buehrle 7.6% 6% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Torii Hunter 6.4% 5% - 8% 0% 4% David Wright 6.0% 4% - 9% 0% 20% José Bautista 1.6% 1% - 3% 0% 99.9% Matt Holliday 0.8% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Víctor Martínez 0.8% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Bartolo Colón 0.3% 0.3% -2% 0% > 99.9%
January 23, 2024 at 10:47 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Election eve ballots have been good for Todd Helton's Hall of Fame chances but not so good for Billy Wagner's. Current projections with 200 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker.
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98.7% 96% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 81.5% 77% - 85% 99.9% 0% Todd Helton 75.9% 73% - 79% 71% 0% Billy Wagner 73.4% 71% - 77% 18% 0% Gary Sheffield 67.0% 64% - 71% < 0.01% 0% Andruw Jones 61.7% 59% - 65% 0% 0% Carlos Beltrán 59.6% 56% - 64% 0% 0% Chase Utley 37.5% 33% - 42% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 35.7% 33% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32.0% 29% - 35% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 16.4% 12% - 21% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 15.9% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 8.1% 6% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Mark Buehrle 7.8% 7% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Torii Hunter 6.5% 5% - 9% 0% 4% David Wright 6.0% 4% - 9% 0% 20% José Bautista 1.6% 1% - 4% 0% 99.7% Matt Holliday 1.0% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Víctor Martínez 1.0% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Bartolo Colón 0.3% 0.3% -2% 0% > 99.9%
January 23, 2024 at 2:22 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Three days before Hall of Fame reveal day and here are my latest projections (with 185 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker). Todd Helton's chances of election have decreased a bit since my last update while Billy Wagner's have improved slightly, but both remain right on the edge.
January 21, 2024 at 12:18 AM